Sunday Night Showdown Slate- Vikings @ Packers

Lines:

Vikings @ Packers (-13)

o/u = 42.5

 

DVOA

Vikings against the run #22
Vikings against the pass #11
Packers against the run #31
Packers against the pass #14

 

Notes:

Temperature at game time is expected to be -15 degrees.  Interesting stat courtesy of Stathead, over the last 8 years, the average passing game with single digit temperatures has been 16 completions for 160 yards and .3 TDs.  Needless to say, I will not be loading up on the passing games of these two teams.

Historically, the Vikings have been listless in Lambeau field (believe me I have attended many of those games) especially those in December/January.

Add to that the fact that Kirk Cousins is out and is being replaced with something called Sean Mannion, makes me want to have very limited exposure to the Vikings passing game at all.

 

Favorites:

Aaron Rodgers, $11,200

• Although I just said I don’t love either passing game, that doesn’t mean AROD can’t have 175 yards passing, but 2 goaline TD passes, which would be large in what should be a low scoring game.
• Rodgers has not thrown for less than two scores since week 10 and blew up the Vikes for 385 and 4 TDs in their first meeting.
• If it were 20 degrees, I would bank on Rodgers tearing apart this dreadful Vikes defense. It is only the cold that will limit him. I don’t see 300+ yards and 4 scores, but I will still own him on the majority of my rosters.

Davante Adams, $11,000

• 100+ yards and at least 1 TD in four out of his last five games.
• 7/115/2 vs the Vikings in their first meeting
• 3^rd in the NFL in redzone targets (31)

Dalvin Cook, $10,400

• I would be shocked if Cook didn’t have 20+ carries in this game whether he is successful or not. I worry about the Packers selling out to stop the run here and making Mannion beat them.
• 22 carries for 86 yards and a TD in week 11 against the Packers.
• Packers have not been strong against the run ranking 2^nd worst DVOA this season. Nick Chubb ripped them for a whopping 7.4 yards per carry (126 yards and a TD) last week at Lambeau.
• Sheer volume will be on Cook’s side and he appears to be the Vikings only avenue to success.

Aaron Jones, $9,000

• Still dealing with a nagging knee, which has limited his volume (only 30 carries the last three weeks).
• He has been effective the last three weeks averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
• I still think with the emphasis on the running game, Jones has the potential to get some more carries and get into the endzone.

 

Value:

AJ Dillon, $5,200

• With Jones hobbled a bit, Dillon should see 10-15 carries in this run heavy game.
• Dillon has also been effective in the short passing game and caught 6/44 against the Vikings in week 11.

 

Sleepers:

Tyler Conklin, $5,600

• Anytime we have an inexperienced QB, it seems like they always look to throw shorter passes, over the middle and that is where Conklin lives.
• Not a real high ceiling, but if Cook doesn’t get it done, there aren’t many other decent Vikings options on offense.

Alex Mattison, $5,000

• A few paths to making this pick work.   The Vikings are really successful running the ball and Dalvin Cook just cant handle 30-40 carries.  In steps Mattison for 10 carries.  2.  Dalvin Cook gets hurt, which is not unheard of.  3.  Vikings are down big time in this game and Mattison gets garbage time and can mount some cheap yards/catches.

Packers Defense, $4,000

• Frigid temperatures, 2 TD, home favorite, against Sean Mannion. Enough said.

 

Deep Sleepers:

Marcedes Lewis, $800

• Activated off the covid list on Saturday.
• Has seen at least three targets in each of his last four games and caught 11/97.
• Super cheap flyer.

 

Possible lineups:

C-Cook, Rodgers, Adams, Dillon, Mattison, Lewis

C- Rodgers, Jones, Adams, Packers, Mattison, Crosby

C- Jones, Dillon, Cook, Rodgers, Packers, Conklin

C- Dillon, Rodgers, Adams, Packers, Jones, Mattison

C- Packers, Jones, Adams, Cook, Dillon, Lazard