The Daily Spin Betting Pick Bonus (FREE) – Vikings vs Seahawks

I promised that I would remind you about this game three weeks ago and here I am, live on the scene in Seattle to deliver you this special pick that I hope you will play along with me tonight. The game at hand has the Vikings travelling to Seattle for a huge game with massive playoff implications for both sides. The Packers won handily against the Giants yesterday to stay a game ahead of the Vikings in the NFC North where they also hold the tiebreaker based on an early season head to head win. Given the relatively easy schedule that the Packers have left outside of a Week 16 visit to Minnesota (Washington, Chicago, @Detroit) the Vikings might need to win out just to have a shot at winning their division.

For the Seahawks, they have the chance to move from the #5 seed in the NFC West up to the lead in the division and into the #2 seed by virtue of the 49ers loss to Baltimore yesterday. However, the schedule is still treacherous over the last few weeks and includes a battle on the road with the Rams who they beat narrowly earlier in the season and a Week 17 showdown at home with the 49ers that will likely determine the winner of the division. For the 49ers, that decision not to play for the tie late in overtime against the Seahawks is starting to loom large.

I have had this game circled on the calendar since the moment I walked out of the stadium on Monday night last season when I attended the game between these same two teams and watched the Seahawks win it decisively, 21-7, a score that does not indicate just how poorly the Vikings played. It was an ugly game for both teams, but the biggest takeaway was that the Vikings were unable to move the football in a meaningful manner throughout the game which resulted in the offensive coordinator being fired the next day.

I am not sure how things will get easier for them this week. The biggest news of the weekend broke on Saturday when it was announced that Adam Thielen would not be travelling with the team to Seattle for the game tonight. The Vikings now bring a skeleton crew of WRs to the game in Stefon Diggs, Bisi Johnson, Laquon Treadwell and meaningless practice squad call up, Alexander Hollins who was activated today. It should tell you everything you need to know that only Diggs and Bisi started the year on the 53 man roster and Bisi was slated as the #4 WR at that time before injuries to multiple players push him to the #2 spot now.

On a positive note, it does appear that the Vikes will get Linval Joseph back tonight after having knee surgery three weeks ago. However, what is much more concerning is that both starting safeties, Anthony Harris and Harrison Smith are both questionable to go tonight, a blow to an already shaky secondary. The Vikings have been able to stuff the run this year and rank 4th in the category, but the pass defense is beginning to be a problem. Two games back, Dak Prescott shredded them on Sunday night and a week late, they made Brandon Allen of the Broncos look serviceable in nearly losing at home to an awful team. The story of Xavier Rhodes decline cannot be overstated. The cracks began to show in 2017 and the dam broke this year. He’s one of the lowest rated CBs in pro football and is a liability in coverage at this point. This makes the potential loss of Harris and Smith even bigger than most other weeks.

On offense, the story is the inability of Kirk Cousins to win in big moments. He enters tonight 0-7 straight up and 0-7 against the spread on Monday Night Football. It’s almost impossible to be that bad, but he’s managed to do it. Sure, he’s won in primetime twice this season, but I am not going to get excited about the sloppy win against the Redskins and that Dallas win looks less impressive as each week goes by and Dallas is revealed to be totally fraudulent. For his career in primetime, Cousins now sits at 6-13.

On the other side of the field, you have Mr Clutch starting this game for the Seahawks in Russell Wilson. As long as he is the starter in Seattle, they are never out of a game. He’s been particularly good under the bright lights as well with a record of 23-8-2 in primetime games. Against these Vikings, he is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in his career. The one time he did not cover was in the 2015 playoffs in Minnesota where temperatures were bone chillingly cold and neither team could move the ball. The other games have all been blowout Seahawk wins.

Want some more numbers to chew on? How about a few of these that I found digging around to make this decision a little easier:

1. Seattle is 23-9 in December since 2012 (Wilson’s rookie season)
2. Seattle has the highest win percentage in MNF history (25-10) and are 9-2 under Pete Carroll
3. Seattle is 18-2 in home primetime games and 8-0 in December primetime games.
4. The Vikings are 2-7 SU and ATS in its last nine games off of a bye
5. Over the last two years, the Seahawks are 9-3-2 ATS in games with a spread of a FG or less while the Vikings are 1-6 in those spots over the same time frame.
6. Over the last four seasons, the Vikings are 3-13-1 on the road against teams with winning records

I get it, you hear me trash talk Minnesota teams often, but the case is so strong this week. I do not care if the Vikings somehow find a way to cover this week. Every ounce of research that I have done over the years and this week points to a Seahawks cover so I am more than comfortable making this recommendation to you.

THE PICK: SEAHAWKS -3