The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 10

Zachary Turcotte
By Zachary Turcotte November 13, 2021 00:58

The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 10

Welcome back to me this week after spending about four straight days on bedrest getting over COVID last weekend….well, mostly over it. I still have the symptoms of a lingering head cold, but as the days go by, I am feeling a little better each day. I had all the classic symptoms along the way. It started with a slight fever, chills, exhaustion, muscle aches and a total loss of taste and smell. I felt sluggish throughout the weekend and did little other than lay in bed, watch games and chat with you good folks on Slack through the UFC fights on Saturday night which is always a great distraction on a quiet night. This week has been one of slow recovery. I am really fortunate in that I can do most of my work from home and share an office with just one other person so it has not been too terribly disruptive as far as keeping up with everyone.

I want to offer a big thank you to Erik ‘Stat Boy’ Dantoft for filling in for me last week with the column. He’s been having a solid season of his own on the DFS front for NFL games so it was easy to hand off my duties to him as we tend to follow a very similar process for how we go about selecting players and in what we are looking for on the value and matchup side of things. I was able to use a little of his advice along with a few key pivots of my own to lead me to two winning teams last week in both DraftKings and FanDuel. The lineups are listed below and I will offer some brief analysis on my thinking with the plays that worked or came up short for Sunday.

 

DraftKings FanDuel
Lamar Jackson 7300 35.64 Jordan Love 6000 12.9
Alvin Kamara 8200 20.4 Alvin Kamara 9400 18.4
Austin Ekeler 7900 11.2 Nick Chubb 7600 29.3
Kadarius Toney 5200 1.7 Jaylen Waddle 6100 12.3
Jarvis Landry 5100 4.1 Hunter Renfrow 5600 14.4
Hunter Renfrow 4800 17.9 Tee Higgins 6600 10.8
Albert Okwuegbunam 2600 6.5 George Kittle 6000 17.1
Nick Chubb 6700 33.3 Austin Ekeler 9000 9.7
Vikings 2200 12 Giants 3500 14
50000 142.74 59800 138.9

 

My DK team came together really quickly last week. I locked in Lamar Jackson against the Vikings and Albert Okwuegbunam for the Broncos at TE and worked from there. I knew Lamar would be chalky and envisioned a 30+ point effort from him. That price was a little on the low side given the matchup and point total. Albert O was a plug and play TE with Fant out for the week and also extremely heavily owned.

The rest of my DK strategy revolved around trying to work three RBs into my lineup as I really liked some of the names that were popping in my model. I was able to squeeze Kamara, Ekeler and Chubb onto my team and got an elite performance, an okay performance and one underperformance for my efforts. Chubb was due to bust out as the featured back for Cleveland with Kareem Hunt still out and the Bengals are not a great defense despite their record this season. Chubb went over 100 yards and punched in two TDs, a great effort for $6700. Kamara ended up playing okay for the week, though it took a late rushing TD to salvage the week. With Ingram back in the fold, he is ceding touches in a split effort for the Saints, but I still like his target potential and Atlanta is terrible against the run. Finally, Austin Ekeler could not get anything going against the Eagles last week. He was heavily owned at 50-60% in most contests so it was not a killer, and he did get 20 touches, he just could not score from the red zone and his targets were down from previous weeks. I loved the match up, we got the touches we needed, it just did not come together.

At WR, I elected to punt everywhere. With Henry Ruggs gone from LV, I upgraded Hunter Renfrow who scored early and was productive in a possession plus type of role for the Raiders. In Cleveland, I had hoped I could get the same effort from Jarvis Landry with OBJ gone, but he again did very little as the Brown cruised with a strong running attack. Kadarius Toney was a huge letdown at the other WR spot. With all the injuries the Giants had at the position, I expected Toney to be more involved, but he was useless with the Giants completing just three passes to wideouts for the day. Perhaps lingering injury issues slowed him.

On defense, I punted to the Vikings who ran a kick back for a TD and got a couple of turnovers and sacks to give me a very respectable output for the day. They’ve been good at pressuring opposing QBs this season so I figured they would be able to put up at least a few points even in a shootout.

Overall, I cashed easily for the week as Nick Chubb really helped get me over the top by a good amount. The cash line was much lower than a lot of recent weeks and it just showed how key it is to get three star RBs into your lineup when possible. When looking at WR versus RB, we can guess with a good amount of authority that starting RBs are going to get a certain number of touches. No matter how good the matchup is between a WR and CB, the QB still has to get them the ball with some amount of regularity and accuracy. A guy like Tyreek Hill might look to be in a dominant spot against a weak Packer CB, but if the ball does not go his way, he is not getting the points. That’s not to say that you should steer clear of those WRs, but if you get a chance to use a great RB for that flex position, take advantage of it more often than not.

On FD, I did not do too much differently than with DK. I decided to mix it up a little by dropping to Jordan Love at QB which nearly hurt me until he salvaged his day with a late TD pass. From there, the rest was like an All-Star team. I had the same RBs, but was able to upgrade at WR to Jaylen Waddle and Tee Higgins. Neither was amazing, but certainly better than Landry and Toney. t TE, I was able to take advantage of a cheaper than normal price on Kittle who was returning from injury which paid off nicely. I punted on the Giants at defense and was rewarded against a despondent Raiders squad. I won in cash games and took down the FIE weekly FanDuel contest (there is an overlay in this one EVERY week guys). For being sick as a dog, I was very pleased with the way that Week 9 played out for me on both sites.

Week 10
QB DK  %  Cap FD  %  Cap
Josh Allen 7900 15.8% 8700 14.5%
Tom Brady 7600 15.2% 8300 13.8%
Justin Herbert 7300 14.6% 8000 13.3%
Dak Prescott 6900 13.8% 8100 13.5%
Carson Wentz 5900 11.8% 7500 12.5%

 

Josh Allen – Allen had an off week against the Jags last Sunday, but I am not going to overthink that this week with the matchup here as the Bills take on the Jets who rank dead last in the league in total defense and just gave up 45 points to the Colts. Allen has a high ceiling based on his ability to run the ball and the Bills will want to show that last week was an aberration. With Zack Moss hurt, the Bills will likely be throwing the ball even more than usual again this week.

Dak Prescott – Speaking of aberration, the Cowboys certainly crashed back to earth after being declared a ‘special team’ by pundits all over the country. I don’t expect that to be the case at home against Atlanta this week who rank 31st in the league on defense and 28th overall against the pass. This appears to be another high scoring affair as the Cowboys will look to get back on track. Dak has had an extra week to heal his calf up and the Cowboys also get deep threat, Michael Gallup back in the lineup for the first time since Week 1. Dak is priced way too low for a QB averaging nearly 300 yards per game and 2.5 TDs.

Carson Wentz – If you are looking for a good punt option, Carson Wentz has started to look fantasy relevant over the last month. He threw a couple of bad INTs against the Titans, but he’s still at 17 TDs versus 3 INTs on the season, much better than what most sports talk experts would have you believe. He’s been over 20 DK points in his last three starts and this week, he’s up against the Jags who are a funnel defense that has been successful stopping the run this season (8th), while being the worst team in the league against the pass.

 

RB DK  %  Cap FD  %  Cap
Jonathan Taylor 8100 16.2% 9400 15.7%
Dalvin Cook 8000 16.0% 8500 14.2%
Najee Harris 7900 15.8% 9400 15.7%
James Conner 6300 12.6% 7000 11.7%
D’Ernest Johnson 4700 9.4% 5400 9.0%
Mark Ingram 4500 9.0% 5500 9.2%

 

Jonathan Taylor – In his last six games, Taylor has rushed for 650 yards and 8 TDs while adding 15 catches for 223 yards and another TD. With the Colts wisely getting him involved in the offense, I think another big day is in order. When they let him loose against the Jags in Week 17 last season, he rushed for over 250 yards and 2 TDs. The Colts are about a 10 point favorite this week so this should be the type of game where they lean on Taylor often in the second half to close it out.

Dalvin Cook – This could be a great spot to take advantage of reduced ownership numbers this week. Dalvin’s name has been floating around the news for all the wrong reasons this week, but it does not look like it will affect his playing time at all. If that is the case, this is an absolute smash spot for him against the worst rushing defense in the NFL. The Vikings are a team that is a slave to its scheme and they will want to run the ball regardless of how the game is playing out. Look for Cook to get 25 touches this week and at least one TD.

Najee Harris – Harris has been everything the Steelers had hoped at the start of the season. He’s a three down RB that has been effective in the passing game and put up over 800 total yards in eight games. This week, he’s up against the 29th ranked defense in the NFL at home in a game the Steelers are favored to win by over a TD. The Lions do not have much to offer up front so it should actually be a good day on the ground behind his line which usually struggles. With Chase Claypool now out as well, it should mean that Harris is leaned on even more than normal this week.

James Conner – With Chase Edmonds out, Conner will be the main RB for the Card and he’s been great for them this season, especially in the red zone. He leads the league with 11 TDs and sees huge volume anytime the Cardinals are near the goal line. Last week against the 49ers, he had 26 touches and was great out of the backfield, catching five passes. The Panthers have slipped all the way to 19th against the run and they would not even be that high were it not for some inflated numbers early in the season against terrible teams.

D’Ernest Johnson – We have two great punt options this week. With Hunt and Chubb out for Cleveland, Johnson will get the start for the Browns this week against the Patriots who are ranked 17th against the run. When Johnson started earlier this season against the Broncos, he rushed for 146 yards and a TD. The Browns run the ball more than any other team in the league and at such a low price, Johnson is a must play this week.

Mark Ingram – Kamara is out this week which means the Ingram will return to a featured role for the Saints this week against the Titans who are a funnel defense, playing well against the pass (8th), but struggling against the run (24th). He had 14 touches last week which includes catching five passes. The Tennessee defense is banged up and potentially missing several starters. The Saints will also be going with Trevor Siemian at QB which likely means a heavy dose of running the ball on offense.

 

WR DK  %  Cap FD  %  Cap
Davante Adams 7900 15.8% 8700 14.5%
Keenan Allen 7000 14.0% 7200 12.0%
Mike Evans 6900 13.8% 7400 12.3%
Diontae Johnson 6800 13.6% 7400 12.3%
DK Metcalf 6800 13.6% 8000 13.3%
Michael Pittman 6300 12.6% 7200 12.0%
Jerry Jeudy 5300 10.6% 6200 10.3%
James Washington 3500 7.0% 5100 8.5%
Tyler Johnson 3300 6.6% 5100 8.5%

 

Davante Adams – So long as Aaron Rodgers is back this week, we’ll likely get Adams into our lineup. The Seahawks rank 24th in the league against the pass this season and Adams has mismatches against all three Seahawk CBs. He should see double digit targets this week in what is expected to be a close game. In his last two games against Seattle, Adams has been targeted 23 times, caught 18 passes for 326 yards and 2 TDs.

Keenan Allen – While Mike Williams has come back down to Earth, Allen just keeps chipping away every week. He’s averaging ten targets per week and had 600 yards and 2 TDs through eight games. He’s up against one of the worst slot CBs in the league in Mackenzie Alexander in a game with a 53 O/U total where both teams should have plenty of success throwing the ball all day in LA.

Mike Evans – With Antonio Brown out and now potentially Chris Godwin as well, Evans steps into the role of clear WR1 for the Bucs in a game against Washington. Washington is another funnel defense that ranks 10th against the run, but 31st in the league against the pass. Though Marshon Lattimore was able to keep him quiet two weeks ago, he smashed the Bears previously with Brown out. This should be a great spot for Evans who is a Brady favorite in the red zone.

Diontae Johnson – With Juju and Claypool out, Johnson gets a huge bump this week for the Steelers. The Lions are 29th in the league against the pass and Johnson averages ten targets per game. This is another layup for DFS purposes.

Michael Pittman – The Jags have the worst ranked pass defense in the league and Pittman has been red hot the last few weeks. He has scored four TDs in his last three games and he’s the clear WR1 for the Colts, regardless of the health status of TY Hilton. He ranks 9th in the league in receiving yardage this season and with Wentz stepping up his play, this trend should continue the rest of the season.

James Washington – Pure punt play option with Claypool and Juju out for the Steelers. Someone will have to pick up the slack and that will likely be Washington as the Steelers suddenly find themselves stretched thin at a previously deep position. The Lions rank 29th against the pass so it will not take many targets for Washington to deliver value.

Tyler Johnson – If Godwin is out, Johnson is a great punt play for Tampa bay as he caught five balls for 65 yards against the Saints. He would be in even better position to excel against a terrible Washington secondary that ranks 31st against the pass. He’s got great hands, but just has not had much opportunity for action in a very crowded and talented WR room.

 

TE DK  % Cap FD  % Cap
Kyle Pitts 5800 11.6% 6900 11.5%
Pat Freirmuth 3900 7.8% 5100 8.5%
Dan Arnold 3500 7.0% 5100 8.5%
Tyler Conklin 3400 6.8% 5300 8.8%

 

Kyle Pitts – Dallas ranks last in the league against the TE and with Calvin Ridley still trying to get his head right, Pitts is likely to be a huge beneficiary of a lot of volume this week. The point total for this one is 54.5 so if the Falcons are hoping to keep it close, they will need to throw the ball often. He’s been a little cold in that featured role the last two games, but he has 30 point upside potential here against Dallas should you have the funds to pay up.

Pat Freirmuth – We’ve discussed the injury situation for the Steelers already and Freiermuth is again poised to take advantage of it as he’s become Ben’s favorite target down around the red zone. He’s caught three TDs over the last two games and is averaging seven targets per game over his last three games. Detroit ranks 29th in the league against the TE so this should be another productive day for the rookie TE. With so few good options at TE this week, it makes a lot of sense to pay down.

Dan Arnold – Since being traded over to the Jags, Arnold has been heavily involved in the offense seeing 30 targets his last four games and catching 20 passes for 219 yards. That is an average of just over 10 DK points per week. If he can continue to give us that at his salary, he represents a very solid value play at TE where it is not always easy to come by points each week. The Colts rank 24th against the TE this season and the Jags are likely going to need to throw the ball often to keep this game close.

 

DEF DK  % Cap FD  % Cap
Bills 4000 8.0% 5000 8.3%
Cardinals 3700 7.4% 4800 8.0%
Titans 2600 5.2% 4100 6.8%
Vikings 2300 4.6% 3700 6.2%
Washington 2100 4.2% 3400 5.7%

 

Bills – I won’t be paying up this week, but the Bills are fine option if you have the extra funds. They have the top ranked defense in the NFL and have one of the biggest mismatches between their defensive line and the Jets offensive line. They should be able to exert plenty of pressure on Mike White, creating sacks and potential turnovers in a game where they are double digit favorites.

Titans – We have several punt options this week. The Titans are at home and the Saints are starting Trevor Siemian at QB and with Alvin Kamara out, Mark Ingram at RB. This should slow the game down tremendously as the Saints are tough on defense and the Titans will be tough to move the ball on without Kamara in the lineup.

Vikings – I keep going back to the Vikings and they keep rewarding me. Though Danielle Hunter is out, the Vikes have been okay pressuring opposing QBs. I hate to go back to them against the Chargers offense, but that extra cap space is key this week.

Washington – The Bucs are missing several key players in the passing game and Washington does have an effective pass rush which will get after the slow footed, Tom Brady. This has the makings of an ugly game.

 

Zachary Turcotte
By Zachary Turcotte November 13, 2021 00:58

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