The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 10

The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 10

What an interesting last three weeks it has been for me with my lineups. I had a killer lineup in Week 7 that went for 200 points. In Week 8, I had my worst week of the year and took an absolute beating, but then in Week 9, I bounced back for a massive week, crushing all of my cash games and all of my leagues with ease with one of my best scores over the last few seasons. The big difference was the risks that I took in Week 8 versus either of the other weeks. I tried to get away with starting Kirk Cousins and a chalky Darnell Mooney, along with Bijan Robinson against what looked like a dream matchup at home against the Dolphins. I had too much faith in a team that does not mentally show up each week and I had too many players from one team where it probably was unlikely that they could all make meaningful contributions. You can get away with two players like that on your team, but rarely does it work out for three. I let myself get too fixated on all of the beautiful salary cap space that had opened up and it proved costly. In Week 9, I did not make that mistake again.

DraftKings
Jaxson Dart	5200	27.24
Christian McCaffrey	8800	37.3
Kyle Monangai	4600	25.8
Ja’Marr Chase	8400	20.1
Parker Washington	3700	17
Olamide Zaccheaus	3300	17.8
Brock Bowers	5000	46.3
Puka Nacua	8500	22.8
Giants	2400	3
	49900	217.34

I love when there are really great values at RB. This week gets tricky as the paydown options are really somewhat non-existent, but one fell into our lap last week in Kyle Monangai that was essentially a free space. Without D’Andre Swift and going up against the Bengals defense, Monangai at $4600 was a slam dunk for a big game, especially with the heavy expected workload. He was massively owned in all cash games last week, but it was the cap space that he opened up that made him especially compelling. The next spot I locked in was also at RB. You know the drill. CMC is an opportunity machine for the 49ers. It is no longer unusual for CMC to have 30 opportunities in a game between rushes and targets. Given that he was up against the worst run defense in the league, there was no way I was going to try to get cute in fading him, especially knowing that his ownership number would come in extremely high.

I wanted to find a way to fit both Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua into my lineup last week. They both are seeing an obscene number of targets from their QBs this season and both had strong matchups against poorly ranked pass defenses. Both ended up playing well, though Nacua had to leave the game against the Saints after having his shoulder banged up a bit in the 3rd quarter, though he had already racked up an 8/7/95/1 game. Chase went for 8/6/111/0, a quiet day by his standards. However, if that is the baseline for what you can expect on the low end, sign me up all day.

With those four pieces in place, I knew the rest of my roster was going to be a challenge in that I would need to make a couple of deeper punts to stay under the cap. At QB, there was still easy value to work with as Jaxson Dart continues to sport a price that does not take into account his mobility as a QB. The 49ers defense is badly banged up so regardless of injuries on the offensive side of the ball, you can just about count on Dart to get 40-50 rushing yards on the ground and he has rushed for a TD in five of six starts. I liked Caleb Williams a little better than Dart, but I knew I was going to be squeezed on cap space as I had a very specific TE in mind that was not a punt play.

I hope you were able to play Brock Bowers last week for $5k. It is a rarity to get a guy like Bowers at that price. Yes, he was returning from IR, but he was totally clear at practicing in full last week. He had a perfect matchup at home against the Jags who struggle against the TE and it figured to be a back and forth game. The Raiders really have not been able to get the passing game going without Bowers so I anticipated heavy volume for him immediately and that was definitely the case. Bowers had a monster day going 13/12/127/3 and even added 6 rushing yards on his way to piling up 46.3 DK points, shattering the slate.

On defense, I had to choose between a handful of not great to poor options. I would have loved to have played the Rams against Tyler Shough, but I had nowhere close to the cap space available. My hope was that the Giants could put pressure on the not so fleet of foot, Mac Jones and get a few sacks and hopefully a turnover or two. Unfortunately, the Giants were never really in the game and the 49ers used a ground and pound offense to control the ball all day.

Finally, I needed a WR and flex play to finish up my team. When Travis Hunter was placed on IR last week, that elevated Parker Washington towards near ‘must play’ status for me. He was only $3700 and coming off of a 10 target game against the Rams. At that price, I was willing to take a shot on a WR that I projected for 6-8 targets. He ended up going 9/8/90/0, catching a ton of high percentage passes and moving the chains all day for the Jags. The other WR I settled in was Olamide Zaccheus. I only had $3400 of cap space so the options were extremely limited. His price and role as the WR3 for the Bears against the Bengals was enough of a sales pitch for me. He also tends to see about 5-7 high percentage targets per week so I knew that a zero was probably not in play. Sometimes everything just goes your way in DFS as not only did Zaccheus play well, but he caught his first TD of the season.

This was the rare week where everything worked almost to perfection. The big names played well, the value player outperformed and even the punts made valuable contributions. The key going forward is to stay focused on the process and not allowing myself to get too cocky in the next couple of weeks. When you have a couple of massive point weeks like this, it is easy to start convincing yourself that any lineup you build can erupt for huge points so you start to take chances that you otherwise would not. You can develop blind spots in a hurry if you are not careful.

 

Week 10 Player Pool

QB	DK	%  Cap	FD	%  Cap
Josh Allen	7000	14.0%	9200	15.3%
Lamar Jackson	6800	13.6%	9000	15.0%
Jaxson Dart	5700	11.4%	7700	12.8%
Jacoby Brissett	4600	9.2%	6900	11.5%

 

• Josh Allen – Allen rates really well this week against the Dolphins on the road in pristine weather. This should be a game where the Bills put up plenty of points, the only issue is whether it comes from Allen running and throwing or if it turns into a James Cook day and a blowout. I think with some of the defensive injuries the Bills have that the Dolphins could hang around, making Allen even more appealing.
• Lamar Jackson – Lamar and the Ravens rarely get to play in perfect conditions in November so do not be surprised if their offense breaks out for a huge day. The Vikings struggle to contain mobile QBs so while they might be able to wrap up Jared Goff, guys like Caleb, Jalen and Herbert are elusive and were able to make huge plays as coverage broke down. I think there will be some points scored by both sides, but this has the making to be a 30+ DK point game for Jackson.
• Jaxson Dart – The Bears are terrible on defense which should mean that Dart has another effective fantasy day. He has rushed for over 50 yards in four of six starts this season and has a rushing TD in five of six of those games. He does not throw for a ton of yards, but the Bears rank 27th against the pass and have a depleted secondary so there will be open receivers.
• Jacoby Brissett – Brissett is now the starter for the Cards going forward while Kyler Murray is on the IR. Putting Murray on IR should help to soothe his ego as this feels more like a benching after the way Brissett has played in three starts this season. The Seahawks are going to be a tough test for him as they will generate a lot of pressure, but given his price and the fact that the Cards will likely need to be throwing in the second half when they fall behind and I do not mind punting with Brissett to open up cap space below.

 

RB	DK	%  Cap	FD	%  Cap
Christian McCaffrey	9000	18.0%	9700	16.2%
DeVon Achane	7400	14.8%	8500	14.2%
Kyren Williams	6600	13.2%	8200	13.7%
Rico Dowdle	6300	12.6%	8000	13.3%

 

• CMC – It will not be easy for CMC this week against the Rams, but again, if the volume is there, we do not care. He was not very efficient against these Rams the first time around this season, but still touched the ball 30 times and scored 27.9 DK points. He is not priced up enough yet for us to fade him.
• DeVon Achane – Achane plays a similar style to CMC, though he is not going to get as many carries due to the Dolphins being a terrible team and falling behind in games. However, the 7-8 targets he gets combined with his explosive speed in the open field give him the high floor, high ceiling ability that we love in cash games. Buffalo ranks 30th in the league against the run and is missing a slew of key defensive players upfront (Ed Oliver, Michael Hoecht and AJ Epenesa) which should mean that Achane has a lot of room to work this week.
• Kyren Williams – The season long numbers are a bit deceiving for the 49ers defense. They are ranked 22nd against the run, but that does not factor in that they continue to lose key starters each week. You really cannot overstate the importance of Fred Warner. Without Warner, teams are going to run at will against them and Williams will be in line to do so on Sunday. He scored over 32 DK points when these teams met last month.
• Rico Dowdle – Dowdle is now the RB1 for the Panthers and I do not see that changing unless he gets hurt. He has just been way too good as the primary back for the Panthers. In the three games where he has been the primary RB, he has rushed for a bonkers 519 added 95 receiving yards and scored 4 TDs. The Saints are a bottom tier defense and this game should see the Panthers ahead and running the ball often late in the game.

 

WR	DK	%  Cap	FD	%  Cap
Jaxson Smith-Njigba	8600	17.2%	9500	15.8%
Amon-Ra St Brown	8400	16.8%	9300	15.5%
Zay Flowers	5900	11.8%	7100	11.8%
Wan’Dale Robinson	5300	10.6%	6000	10.0%
Parker Washington	4700	9.4%	5600	9.3%
Jauan Jennings	4600	9.2%	6300	10.5%
Tez Johnson	4500	9.0%	5800	9.7%

 

• JSN – The Cards are missing two CBs this week and JSN continues to march towards becoming Offensive Player of the Year as he is on pace to smash the single season receiving yardage record.
• ARSM – The wheels have come off the wagon for the Commanders this season and they are not going to be able to resurrect their season after losing Jayden Daniels last week. Detroit comes into this one ready to put a beating on Washington after what happened to them last season at home in the playoffs where they were stunned in the Divisional Round in humiliating fashion. Washington lost Marshon Lattimore for the season last week and the rest of the secondary is not any better. ARSM is a great cash game option as he sees a lot of shorter, higher percentage targets and also is active in the red zone. Even in an off day, his floor is still 15+ points.
• Zay Flowers – There is a lot of buzz on Flowers this week and it seems likely that he ends up being the highest owned WR on the main slate Sunday. At just $5900, he is in a unique situation where he gets to play indoors in perfect conditions, something we do not see much of with the Ravens this time of year. The Vikings are mediocre at best in covering the pass, ranking 19th this season. That ranking is even a bit deceptive as mobile QBs like Caleb Williams, Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert have really torched them for big games this year when that first Flores wave gets evaded. Lamar Jackson will keep plays alive this week and Flowers will be the one to take advantage of it when coverage breaks down.
• Wan’Dale Robinson – He is not flashy, but Robinson should continue to see a lot of targets as the de facto WR1 for the Giants the rest of the way this season. The Giants have mostly been reduced to a dink and dunk style of passing the ball, but the Bears rank 27th against the pass and so Robinson has a nice floor to work off of, even if he only ends up with a line of 6/60 or something along those lines.
• Parker Washington – Washington was in a nice spot last week when Travis Hunter went on IR and now Brian Thomas is also out this week which should keep Washington very busy on Sunday against the Texans. Houston has the top ranked pass defense in the league, but Washington should still be the target leader this week which means that there is a lot of value here for the price.
• Jauan Jennings – Even with a more conservative game plan last week, Jennings was able to find the endzone for the 49ers. He is going to be their top pass catching option now that he is healthy and Ricky Pearsall remains sidelined. The Rams D Line is among the best in the NFL which means that George Kittle will be used more often as a blocker. The Rams will put up points this week which should force the 49ers to throw more than they have in recent games.
• Tez Johnson – With Evans and Godwin out, Tez becomes the WR2 for the Bucs. I like Egbuka this week, but it is impossible to pay up for him given the other star players I want to get into my lineup. The Pats are great at stopping the run, but rank 28th against the pass. This could lead to a higher scoring game where a low dollar option like Tez could benefit from a bump in targets.

 

TE	DK	% Cap	FD	% Cap
Trey McBride	6000	12.0%	7000	11.7%
Sam LaPorta	4400	8.8%	6400	10.7%
Dalton Schultz	3600	7.2%	5100	8.5%
Hunter Henry	3500	7.0%	5300	8.8%
Mark Andrews	3400	6.8%	6000	10.0%

 

• Trey McBride – From week to week, there is no other TE in the league right now getting the volume that McBride is seeing for the Cards. Though he is not a TD magnet, he averages close to double digit targets on a weekly basis. I think his value is even higher now that Jacoby Brissett is his starting QB rather than Kyler Murray. All of those rushing TDs that Murray used to get are now going to be end zone targets and many of those will go to McBride. Seattle is very good against opposing WRs, but only 24th against the TE. The Cards are about a TD underdog this week which means that McBride is going to see a ton of action.
• Sam LaPorta – In recent weeks, the Lions have started to get the ball into the hands of LaPorta more often. Washington ranks 21st in defending the TE so I love this spot for LaPorta who has scored TDs in three of his last four games.
• Dalton Schultz – With Davis Mills in at QB, look for the Texans to take a more conservative approach in the passing game. The Jags rank 25th against the TE this season and were destroyed by Brock Bowers last week. Look for Mills to get Schultz involved early in this one as his offensive line has trouble protecting their QB.
• Hunter Henry – With Kayshon Boutte out this week, there should be some additional targets for Henrey against the Bucs on Sunday. The Pats have enjoyed a soft schedule in recent weeks, but the Bucs will put up points which should translate into an expanded passing attack for the Pats.
• Mark Andrews – This is a little bit of a dart throw as Andrews has not seen a ton of volume this year. However, the Vikings have been downright awful against opposing TEs in recent weeks, allowing Sam LaPorta and Oronde Gadsden to run wild against them the last two weeks. Andrews is a favorite target in the red zone for Lamar Jackson so even if the volume is light, Andrews will score a TD on Sunday.

 

DEF	DK	% Cap	FD	% Cap
Panthers	FD ONLY	0.0%	3600	6.0%
Ravens	3300	6.6%	3500	5.8%
Browns	2900	5.8%	4600	7.7%
Jags	2600	5.2%	4200	7.0%

 

• Panthers – I am convinced that FD deliberately screws around with its pricing just to see if we are paying attention each week. They have done this with golf for years, but I notice it in NFL too sometimes. The Panthers are at home against Tyler Shough and the Saints. Not only are the Saints poor, they just traded away Rashid Shaheed so they do not even have a deep threat available any longer.
• Ravens – The Ravens are now totally healthy on defense and have stepped up in the last couple of weeks and are starting to resemble the team that is usually a Top-10 unit most seasons. Aaron Jones is banged up for the Vikings and JJ McCarthy is erratic at best in throwing the ball. He takes a lot of sacks and is not afraid to throw into coverage. The Ravens will get 3-5 sacks and at least one INT on Sunday.
• Browns – This is an ugly game. It does not really matter who will start for the Jets, the Browns defensive front will be all over them all day.
• Jags – The Jags are super cheap on DK this week. With Davis Mills starting at QB for the Texans, this becomes a great spot for the Jags defense to get a lot of pressure and cause a few poor throws in what should be a low scoring game.