The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 10

Through all of the injuries and the virus spreading at a faster rate, the NFL has managed to keep moving along as week approach Week 10. This past week, the owners got together and put together a contingency playoff plan so that we may see as many as 16 teams go to the playoffs this year in the classic format of eight from each conference. It will not necessarily go to that format, so don’t get too excited just yet Viking fans, by there is at least a small glimmer of hope for fans around the league who may have counted their favorite team out after a rough start.

I am overjoyed to have the NFL as an escape this time of year. It is one of the few things that feels somewhat normal this fall. Waking up this morning with the second round of The Masters, college football coming on in a couple of hours and the NFL tomorrow helps to get through these hard weeks. I know that many of you have endured various struggles and hardships throughout 2020. It means so much to me personally that you have turned to our little community for an escape. Studying, watching and writing about my favorite sports has been a gift this year for me as my family has navigated its own ups and downs. Thank you all so much for being a part of this journey with us. You’ll never realize just how much your loyalty means to me.

Week 9 is now in the books and for many of us it was really profitable, but I know for others, it was frustrating as key injuries crippled some hopes early in games and ended any real sweat. The one that stood out the most was Justin Jackson and that one hit my team. I was fortunate in that my team played so well in the early games that I knew it would not matter for me, but I know that for lot of people, they were counting on a big game from Jackson to get them over the line for the week. He was set up to have a huge day and when you look at what backup, Kallen Ballage was able to do in coming off the bench, you get an idea of just how big of a day Jackson could have had if it had not been for sustaining an injury on the first play of the game. That was terrible luck for us, but he was 60-70% owned in most cash game lineups, so your path to victory was not shattered immediately by losing him to injury. That is one of the benefits of lining up with some of the key chalk plays in cash games and not going too far out on a ledge. When these types of injuries happen, you want them to affect as many of your opponents as possible to mitigate the damage.

The other injury that hurt lineups was with David Johnson sustaining a concussion early in the first quarter for the Texans against the Jags. This injury did not hit my team, but once again, if you look at his backup in Duke Johnson (20 touches, 16.3 DK points), you can see that David was likely going to get a fair amount of work, though I suspect Duke would have still gotten some touches as well. If both of these injuries hit your team last week, then it just was not going to be a week for you to make any money. It wrecks a fun sweat and hours of time spent researching your team, but it is a part of DFS that we learn to live with (and love when we dodge those bullets).

Now I get to do the fun part of the recap. I found my way back into the winner’s circle last week, though I will say, the build was tricky and I was fumbling around with it all the way up to the last 15 minutes or so before I finally settled on a team for the week.

Running back was a big decision for me last week. I knew I was going to play Justin Jackson at his price and going against the Raiders. He was cheap and likely to see 20 touches with 5-6 coming in the passing game. For defense, the Giants were also a no brainer for me in going up against a beat up Washington team that does not have a lot of weapons. I am usually looking for a punt on defense to save any extra dollars and it worked out great as they pressured Alex Smith often and created a few turnovers.

At Tight End, I also like to pay down when I can. Travis Kelce went off, so if you had the funds to fit him in, nice work. Hayden Hurst was always going to be the play for me. With Calvin Ridley down, his targets had to be spread to other players and Hurst has filled the gap left by Austin Hooper really well and has been a consistent contributor over the last month. This also made Julio Jones essentially a must play. At 7200 and with no Ridley and a beat up Denver secondary, all signs pointed to a big day for Julio. Though he had a rather pedestrian outing, the risk in leaving him off my roster was far too great with high expected ownership which did end up coming in at over 70%. Hurst gave us what we needed and while Julio fell a little short, it certainly did not hurt the team given his popularity.

The key decision for me ended up being at running back. Dalvin was the obvious play and I knew he would be heavily owned for the week. I also knew Chase Edmonds would be popular and would allow me to save a lot of cap space if I paid down. I was not in love with the idea of going down into the value range at QB. Drew Lock did end up putting up a ton of garbage time points so it would have worked out, but there was also a lot more risk in dropping down there and that has come back to bite us recently.

Ultimately, I decided I had to pay up to use Cook. The script was just too good at home on a fast track against a terrible defense. I thought that there was a good chance that Edmonds could see just as many touches as Cook, but in my mind, it all came down to answering the question: which player is more likely to be a bust? We’ve seen plenty of disappointing performances out of Cardinal RBs this season. We also know that Kyler Murray is a TD thief down near the goal line where as Kirk Cousins is rarely scampering in for a score for the Vikings. Cook was very chalky as well so the risk in fading him was that if he put up another monstrous effort, you could be drawing real thin the rest of the day. Obviously, the play worked out perfectly with Cook rushing for over 200 yards and two TDs while Edmonds touched the ball 28 times, but only managed a meager 11.8 DK points.

For the other WR spots, Jerry Jeudy was a go for me all week against the Falcons. Great matchup, great price and this time of year, playing indoors or in great weather is something not to be taken for granted. If you are not checking Windfinder.com each week, I suggest you work it into your crosscheck before lineup lock on Sunday (Hint hint, see Cleveland tomorrow). Jeudy started slowly, but went wild in the 2^nd half and finished with over 100 yards and a TD.

The other WR spot was tougher to figure out. The 6k range was a little empty and I had no interest in following the algorithm folks down the Marcus Johnson rabbit hole. Sure, Johnson was cheap, but also unproven and in a terrible matchup against the Ravens. The folks that played him in cash got zinged, but that should have come as no surprise as that is always the risk you take when paying down for a 5^th or 6^th string guy.

I landed on Brandin Cooks for my other WR. Since the goose egg he put up against Minnesota, he had seen 30 targets in the three games leading up to the game with the Jags and he had killed them just three weeks ago. While I did not expect a carbon copy effort from him, 8-10 targets looked like a reasonable projection and sure enough, he saw nine targets for the third straight game. Though he only hauled in three balls, he made the most of them and ended up with 83 yards and a TD.

Cooks and Jeudy were really key for me last week. Neither was heavily owned as most of the pros made the punt play and dropped to Marcus Johnson so getting big games from them and having the punts blowup, provided a ton of leverage for the week.

At QB, I was either going to play Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson. Given the way the salary cap space came together for me, I was not going to have the funds at RB to get all the way up to Chase Edmonds for my other RB with Cooks. Again, the board was really light on middle range backs so Deejay Dallas was the next man up. This left me with enough cap space to pick whichever QB I wanted of the three that I liked up top so I settled in on the guy who has played like and MVP all season. It was a rough outing for the Hawks, but even in a losing effort where Wilson took a pounding, he still managed to post huge numbers by fantasy standards, though not nearly as good as what Allen put up as the Bills executed a fantastic game plan, going to the air on almost every offensive snap.

Even with the injury, I ended up with 171.6 points and a nice win for the week. We are getting to the time of year when the data starts to work really well in our favor. The combination of actually watching all the games and seeing where there are areas to exploit helps our cause this time of year, though there are never easy weeks when it comes to DFS. Keep working on your process and keep showing up in our slack chat. Little by little, you will find an edge if you are willing to put in the work with us.

 

Week 9 Team
Russell Wilson	7600	29.1
Dalvin Cook	8200	42.2
DeeJay Dallas	5000	11.9
Julio Jones	7200	16.4
Brandin Cooks	5500	17.3
Jerry Jeudy	4700	28.5
Hayden Hurst	4100	13.2
Justin Jackson	4900	0
Giants	2700	13
	49900	171.6

 

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QB	DK	50000	FD	60000
Kyler Murray	8000	16.0%	8800	14.7%
Russell Wilson	7700	15.4%	8900	14.8%
Josh Allen	7500	15.0%	8700	14.5%
Justin Herbert	6600	13.2%	8000	13.3%
Jared Goff	6500	13.0%	7400	12.3%
Tua Tagovailoa	5600	11.2%	6800	11.3%

 

Kyler Murray – There is not much that I need to tell you about Murray as he’s becoming the 2020 version of 2019 Lamar Jackson. As a dual threat run/pass QB, he’s on pace to throw for over 4000 yards and rush for 1000 yards which would make him the first in NFL history to achieve such lofty numbers. He’s at home this week against a middle of the road Bills defense and both teams should put up plenty of points. Given his 40 point upside, my inclination is to plug him in this week and work from there.

Russell Wilson – If you do come up a little short in salary this week, there is nothing wrong with dropping down to Russell Wilson who is sure to continue to put up big numbers. With it still looking unlikely that the Seahawks will have either Chris Carson or Carlos Hyde available on Sunday, Russell will have to throw often against the Rams in what is likely to be another shootout as the Seahawks have a historically bad secondary. His worst performance of the season yielded 24.9 DK fantasy points so the floor is always high even at this price point.

Jared Goff – Speaking of the Seahawks and their terrible secondary, Jared Goff is in play on the other side of the ball. I am not at all a Jared Goff fan and think he is the most overpaid QB in the league, but this is a matchup that the Rams should not be able to screw up. If Sean McVay decides to try to establish the run, it will be one more knock against him, but if they watch even five minutes of film, they should be able to copy the game plan of the Bills from the prior week where Josh Allen threw for 415 yards and 3 TDs. The Seahawks are also down two of their starting corners so Goff should have plenty of open options this week.

Tua Tagovailoa – If you really need the cap space, you can drop all the way down to Tua this week against the Chargers. As the Chargers are missing their top RBs, this is likely to be another up tempo game. In the last five games the Chargers have played, there has not been fewer than 57 points scored with four of those resulting in losses for the Chargers who have a middle of the road defense and are missing their top pass rusher as Joey Bosa is out for the week. Tua played much better last week in leading the Dolphins to a win over a tough Arizona team and managed to rush for 35 yards on the ground, a great bonus for us in selecting a QB each week.

 

RB	DK	50000	FD	60000
Alvin Kamara	8200	16.4%	9000	15.0%
Aaron Jones	7100	14.2%	8800	14.7%
James Robinson	6600	13.2%	7300	12.2%
Miles Sanders	6400	12.8%	7700	12.8%
Chase Edmonds	6300	12.6%	7100	11.8%
Duke Johnson	5000	10.0%	5800	9.7%
Mike Davis	4000	8.0%	5400	9.0%

 

Aaron Jones – Alvin Kamara is always a reasonable option at RB but I think our dollars are best spent elsewhere so I think dropping down to Jones makes sense here. After 10 more days of rest, he should be all healed up and he’s taking on the worst defense in the league. It is expected to be windy and cold in Green Bay and when the Packers get ahead, the script projects well for Jones to see heavy usage on the ground in the second half.

Chase Edmonds – We are still waiting to hear if Kenyan Drake will be ruled out or not, but assuming he does not play, Edmonds would be in a great spot again this week. He did not give us the big fantasy numbers we were looking for a week ago, but the good news is that he carried the ball 25 times and caught three passes. If the Cards are going to give Edmonds the full workload again, then last week was likely the absolute floor of what we can expect for production as I would expect a 20+ DK point effort most weeks for that sort of volume.

Duke Johnson –.David Johnson remains sidelined with a concussion this week so Duke Johnson will be getting the majority of the work for the Texans against the Browns this week. We also need to factor in that the winds in Cleveland look awful this week, with gusts as high as 50 mph which means that the downfield passing game will be limited, another positive for Duke as the Browns will be forced to work more short passes into the game plan. Houston ranks 28^th in the league against the run and 27^th against pass catching RBs so this is a great spot for Duke to shine.

Mike Davis – Davis is a must start this week even in a really tough matchup against the Bucs who have the top ranked defense in the NFL. In mop up time alone against the Bucs when CMC went down with an injury, Davis caught eight passes for 74 yards. Given that he should be looking at 15-20 opportunities again this week, at $4k, he is way too cheap, even if the yards will not come easy.

 

WR	DK	50000	FD	60000
DK Metcalf	7600	15.2%	8300	13.8%
Stefon Diggs	7500	15.0%	7900	13.2%
Michael Thomas	7400	14.8%	8500	14.2%
Keenan Allen	7100	14.2%	7800	13.0%
Cooper Kupp	6900	13.8%	7700	12.8%
Terry McLaurin	6800	13.6%	7000	11.7%
Tyler Lockett	6500	13.0%	7400	12.3%
Diontae Johnson	5200	10.4%	5700	9.5%
DeVante Parker	5000	10.0%	6000	10.0%

 

Seattle WRs (Metcalf & Lockett) – Every week this is going to be a problem. Tyler Lockett has become a low floor/high ceiling play which makes him a tough play in cash games, but for the third week in a row, he should theoretically have the best matchup on the field. The Rams are playing coy about Jaylen Ramsey and acting like he will not be shadowing Metcalf all day. If they go that route, the McVay is even more foolish than I thought as they will get torn apart for big plays. Right now, Lockett should spend most of the day covered by Troy Hill in the slot which would be a big advantage for Lockett, but as we have seen, nothing is guaranteed when trying to decide between Seattle receivers.

Rams WRs (Cupp/Woods/Reynolds) – I like all of the Rams receivers this week against the Seahawks. Seattle is awful this year against the pass which results in them being involved in a shootout every single week. Cupp and Woods are obvious options and with Shaq Griffin and Quinton Dunbar both out this week, both guys should be able to finds plenty of open space to get open. If you need cap space, Josh Reynolds should work at just $3500. He’s averaging 6.5 targets per game over the last four weeks and given the sweet matchup, it won’t take much for him to hit value.

Keenan Allen – Allen is a must start at this price until further notice. He is a target magnet and has seen the ball thrown his way 77 times in six full games with Justin Herbert (excludes the Saints game where Allen got hurt). The Dolphins have been good on the outside against receivers, but are weak in the slot as Nik Needham does not grade out very well this season.

Terry McLaurin – McLaurin is the one consistent piece on the Washington offense this season. He’s averaging just under ten targets per week and he’s finally indoors this week at Detroit which should give him the best opportunity to show off his electric speed against a subpar defense that ranks 25^th in the league and 18^th against the pass. Desmond Trufant will shadow him, but has been terrible this year so I expect McLaurin to have another big day.

Diontae Johnson – Playing Diontae Johnson in NFL cash games is a lot like playing Louis Oosthuizen in PGA. You are always holding your breath waiting to see if he will get injured early and put up a zero. In the four games where he’s been a full participant, he’s had 48 targets, an average of 12 per game. If he is anywhere near those numbers this week against the Bengals, he’s a fantastic value for the price against the 25^th ranked pass defense in the league.

Devante Parker – The Dolphins are a little thin at receiver this week as Preston Williams is out with an injury which should leave Parker as the primary target in the passing game for the Dolphins this week against the Chargers. With Rb Myles Gaskin still out with an injury, the Dolphins will need to throw the ball to keep up with the Chargers this week. The Chargers have given up at least 29 points every week over the last five games so this could be a big week for Parker.

 

TE	DK	50000	FD	60000
Darren Waller	5900	11.8%	7000	11.7%
TJ Hockerson	5100	10.2%	6200	10.3%
Noah Fant	4900	9.8%	5700	9.5%
Eric Ebron	4400	8.8%	5400	9.0%
Dallas Goedert	4200	8.4%	5800	9.7%

 

Darren Waller – No Kittle and no Kelce on the slate leaves Waller as the best of the group by a good distance. He’s the best pass catching option for the Raiders and the Broncos are ranked 15th against the TE this season. He’s averaging nine targets per game this season and his price makes him affordable if you’ve got the available funds.

TJ Hockerson – Washington ranks last in the NFL against the TE which would make this a great spot for TJ, but he did injure his toe this week in practice so he’s got the dreaded ‘questionable’ tag going into Sunday. With Kenny Golladay still out, he should pick up an additional share of the targets, but we’ll have to wait until Sunday to see his status.

Noah Fant – Fant hurt his ankle on his first reception last week, but did return to the game later and caught two more passes and seems to be healthy again this week. If he can stay on the field, he should be looking at 6-8 targets again this week against the Raiders.

Dallas Goedert – Goedert is likely our play this week. He is cheap, Zach Ertz is out and he’s up against the Giants who rank 28^th in the league against the pass and 24^th against the TE. Even when he’s splitting time with Ertz, he’s in play most weeks, but as the primary option getting all the work, the Eagles are likely to throw him the ball at least ten times, giving him huge upside potential in a great matchup. He will almost certainly be the chalk so I would recommend locking him in and making decisions at other postions.

 

DEF	DK	50000	FD	60000
Steelers	4400	8.8%	5000	8.3%
Packers	3700	7.4%	4800	8.0%
Washington	3200	6.4%	3800	6.3%
Saints	3000	6.0%	4500	7.5%
Giants	2700	5.4%	3900	6.5%

 

Packers – The weather should be cold and windy and the Jags are again playing rookie, Jake Luton. It’s one thing to play well in good weather at home, it is another to go on the road to Green Bay and to play well when the Jags will likely be well behind and having to throw to stay in the game.

Washington – Washington has the 6^th ranked defense in the league and the top pass defense. While they have not been as strong against the run, the Lions are a RB by committee team at this point so it is hard to envision them moving the ball well, especially without their top WR, Kenny Golladay. Washington averages 3.5 sacks per game and should be able to cause plenty of problems for the less than mobile, Matthew Stafford.

Saints – Saints played well last week against the Bucs and this week, they get Nick Mullens and the 49ers at home. The 49ers are built to run the ball, but the Saints rank 5^th against the run and the Niners are still missing their top two RBs. With Deebo Samuel and George Kittle still out, there is no real path for the 49ers to keep up with the Saints this week.

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