The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 11

Zachary Turcotte
By Zachary Turcotte November 21, 2020 14:54

The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 11

As I was getting my back adjusted by my chiropractor this week, he asked me how I handle the tough weeks where things do not work out so well. I told him that I just try to be as honest as possible about the carnage and hope that we can all learn together from the process. Week 10 is a learning week.

I felt really good about the way the team came together. It felt like a week where the puzzle largely put itself together and there were only a couple of decision points where I was at all hesitant. It was a week where we had some very obvious plays at RB and good matchups at WR.

The obvious plays at RB were Mike Davis at $4k and Duke Johnson at $5k. Davis got the start after CMC was ruled out and we’ve seen that his usage can largely mirror that of Christian when he’s healthy though it does seem like he’s lost a bit of his burst in recent weeks. Tampa bottled him up pretty well and he never got going in the passing game the way he did the first time these two teams played. It is unfortunate that his price was this low as I could have avoided him (he was $6700 on the full slate) otherwise, but with how much cap space he opened up and his expected usage, there was no way I was fading him.

Duke Johnson similarly looked like he was in a nice spot. The weather in Cleveland was awful so it looked like a day where the Texans would run often and use short passes to Duke to keep the chains moving. For some reason, the Texans just did not throw him the ball. I think he had one target for the game which was a horrible strategic error for them. Duke is at his best in open space, not running between the tackles so it was discouraging to see him held to only 54 yards rushing.

I thought Aaron Jones was in a great spot against the Jags last week, but that did not work either. The Packers confuse me as they go through whole drives of games where Jones just disappears from the offense and Jamal Williams steals away a bunch of opportunities. Last week, Jones had 18 touches to 11 for Williams, unacceptable for our purposes in DFS. We’ve seen Jones have monster games when turned loose, but if we are looking at a 60/40 split, that will not leave us many opportunities to play Jones when he’s priced above $7k. The matchup certainly could not have been any better either so it was a discouraging result.

At QB, Kyler Murray was my play all week. With his running ability and the fast paced offense that the Cardinals run, if I can find room for him on my team, he’s getting the nod. He started slowly, but roared to life in the second half and with a last second heave to the end zone, he broke 30 points for the week and had the potential for 40 had the Cards not been reduced to kicking a bunch of short field goals in the first half. It was a great result, but he was very heavily owned so it did not gain us a lot of separation from fellow competitors.

On defense, I locked in the Saints very early in the week. The 49ers are missing too many weapons and Nick Mullens, while not terrible, is at best, a serviceable backup. The game stayed competitive into the second half, but the Saints tightened up on defense, created some turnovers and battered Mullens along the way for a solid 14 point week. It was another heavily owned play, but I am always happy to get anything positive from my defense and to be able to move on.

At Tight End, I really liked Dallas Goedert against the Giants. The Eagles utilize the TE much more than other teams and the Giants are not great against the pass or in covering the TE. Unfortunately, Goedert took a shot to the head early and had to come out to be tested for a concussion. He did return to the game, but lost a lot of targets to Richard Rodgers along the way and did not have the big day we had hoped for. He was also heavily owned, but it was yet another play that did not work out.

At WR, I felt good about the three guys I landed on for the week. Keenan Allen has been a target magnet, but the Dolphins did a great job of using extra bodies to limit him for most of the game until he punched in a late, garbage time TD to at least get into double digits for the week. I have no issue with this play as Allen is going to be a 10-12 target a week guy so more often than not this year, we’re going to get big numbers from him.

I needed some cap savings so I used Devante Parker for $5k. With Preston Williams out and the Dolphins beat up at RB and in a game where I expected a lot of points, it seemed like a spot where Parker could see 8-10 targets. That did not materialize. He nearly had an early TD, but could not get both feet down in bounds so we lost out on that and then the Dolphins just never really threw the ball all that often. Something called Salvon Ahmed emerged from the ether to touch the ball 22 times and Tua completed just 15 passes as the Dolphins were playing from ahead most of the day. It was disappointing, but there is that risk with Parker, though I at this point, I think I will be avoiding Tua until he gets more comfortable in the offense or just the speed of the game as the Dolphins are winning in spite of him right now.

Finally, I had enough money to use a receiver in the Seahawks/Rams tilt and Tyler Lockett was available. My thought here was that DK Metcalf would be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey so Lockett would get more targets throughout the game. Ramsey did blanket Metcalf who was held to just a couple of catches, but Russell Wilson played one of his worst games as a pro and looked erratic all day. There were opportunities to throw underneath to Lockett several times, but Wilson either missed him or went downfield. I was surprised at how tough it was for the Seahawks to move the ball, but it does reveal a real weakness in that the offensive line does not hold up well against a tough pass rush and Aaron Donald supplies that every time he is out on the field.

All in all, it was a disappointing week, but in looking at the lineup from top to bottom, it’s hard to be really critical over any particular play that I made. Perhaps I need to just stay away from the Seahawks receivers, but Lockett did bounce back nicely on Thursday night catching 9 passes for 66 yards and a TD. It is just difficult to figure out which guy to select from week to week so the more I can focus on finding true WR1 players for my teams, the better my expected results should be in future weeks.

Week 10 Team
Kyler Murray 8000 30.9
Aaron Jones 7100 14.5
Mike Davis 4000 8.4
Keenan Allen 7100 12.9
Tyler Lockett 6500 11.6
DeVante Parker 5000 5.1
Dallas Goedert 4200 7.3
Duke Johnson 5000 5.4
Saints 3000 14
49900 110.1

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QB DK 50000 FD 60000
Lamar Jackson 7300 14.6% 8400 14.0%
Justin Herbert 6800 13.6% 8500 14.2%
Deshaun Watson 6500 13.0% 7700 12.8%
Cam Newton 6200 12.4% 7600 12.7%
Taysom Hill 4800 9.6% 4500 7.5%

Lamar Jackson – I likely will not play Lamar this week, but he’s a decent option this week even if he is not the player he was a year ago. With Jackson, you get a QB that always a threat to drop a 100 yard rushing effort and a 30+ point outburst. With Jadaveon Clowney now on the IR for the Titans, Jackson should have plenty of time to create plays this week against the 24th ranked defense in the league. This is likely more of a GPP option, but there is enough room to maneuver if you really want to make it work for cash games.

Deshaun Watson – We always like QBs that are playing indoors this time of year. Last week was a disaster in Cleveland, but we did not have any interest in him with the weather in Cleveland being miserable. This week, Watson gets a great matchup at home against a Patriots defense that is not nearly as good as it once was even a year ago. With top CB Stephon Gilmore questionable, $6500 is a great price for Watson who averaged more than 25 points per week for the five weeks leading up to the Browns game.

Cam Newton – This is a nice price for Cam playing indoors on a fast surface that should allow for plenty of fireworks this week. Houston has the 28th ranked defense in the league and last in the NFL against the run. With Cam averaging a rushing TD every week, he has a high floor for cash games and with a high point total of 49 and Damien Harris questionable to play, that should lead to a few extra runs for Cam this week.

Taysom Hill – This is my nightmare. Jeff was laughing about this even before Taysom was named the starter this week, but it is the perfect storm. Hill is cheap, we need the extra funds to pay up for Dalvin and the Falcons are not that strong on defense. In running some quick numbers, all we need for a big week at this price are 50 rushing yards, 175 passing yards and two total TDs either on the ground or through his arm. In a week where most of the top QBs are not available, this move makes even more sense.

 

RB DK 50000 FD 60000
Dalvin Cook 9000 18.0% 10500 17.5%
Miles Sanders 6900 13.8% 7700 12.8%
Kalen Ballage 5600 11.2% 5800 9.7%
Giovani Bernard 5500 11.0% 6300 10.5%
Duke Johnson 5400 10.8% 6000 10.0%
JD McKissic 5200 10.4% 5600 9.3%
Adrian Peterson 4000 8.0% 5100 8.5%

Dalvin Cook – Aggressive price bump for Dalvin this week, but well earned. He’s touching the ball 25-30 times per week with no sign of slowing down. Last season against the Cowboys, he rushed 26 times for 97 yards and a TD and added 7 catches for 86 yards. The Cowboys are ranked 28th in the league against the run and the Vikings feast against defenses with a weak line. Cook will be heavily owned and with Taysom Hill now as a cheap QB or TE option, he is much easier to fit into our lineups.

Miles Sanders – Good spot for Sanders this week, especially with Myles Garrett declared out for the Browns. The Browns rank 18th against the run and 25th against pass catching RBs. With the weather in Cleveland expected to be rainy and cold, the Eagles will look to establish the run and use the short passing game between Sanders at the TE to move the ball.

Kalen Ballage – In two games as the primary RB, Ballage had 84 and a TD followed by 102 total yards the next week as he’s seen 40 total touches and seems to be assuming the role of top RB for the Chargers as Joshua Kelley has fallen out of favor. He should see plenty of action again this week against one of the worst defenses in the league, the NY Jets. Though the Jets are solid against the run, I expect the Chargers to get ahead so Ballage should see plenty of touches and he looked comfortable catching passes which gives him a nice floor for cash games.

JD McKissic – I can’t ignore 29 targets in the last two weeks. Alex Smith is not known to throw the ball long so the TE and RBs should continue to get fed short passes and the Bengals rank near the bottom of the league when it comes to defending pass catching backs. I do not mind Antonio Gibson this week either, but he is a little more TD dependent so I prefer McKissic who can be held out of the end zone, but still reach value on volume alone.

Adrian Peterson – With Swift out with a concussion, the Lions will have to mix it up on the ground with Adrian and Kerryon Johnson. It is starting to sound like AP could get more of the work, but I am not certain how this will play out. His salary is very cap friendly and the Panthers are awful against the run. The only problem here is that if Adrian does not find the end zone, he’s only going to put up about 8 points.

 

WR DK 50000 FD 60000
Davante Adams 8600 17.2% 9500 15.8%
Keenan Allen 7400 14.8% 8000 13.3%
Terry McLaurin 6900 13.8% 7300 12.2%
Adam Thielen 6300 12.6% 7900 13.2%
Diontae Johnson 5900 11.8% 6400 10.7%
Marvin Jones Jr 5500 11.0% 6400 10.7%
Amari Cooper 5400 10.8% 6900 11.5%
Brandin Cooks 5200 10.4% 6100 10.2%
Jakobi Meyers 4900 9.8% 6000 10.0%

Davante Adams – Davante is the most consistent receiver in the NFL and has averaged over 12 targets per game since returning from an injury. His ankle is a little banged up and he missed some practice time this week, but his coach said Friday that he is good to go so we’re full speed ahead. He’ll have a familiar matchup this week against Xavier Rhodes, the former Viking All-Pro. Rhodes’ performance fell off a cliff the last two seasons in Minnesota and though he’s rebounded this year, he has slipped a little since a hot start. Adams has owned this matchup the last couple of years and as the top target for Aaron Rodgers, should again be looking at a big day for the Packers.

Keenan Allen – Allen had a down week against the Dolphins, but did at least rally for a late TD to make his final fantasy numbers a little better. This week, he is back at home against the worst pass defense in the league. He’s up against Corey Ballentine, one of the worst ranked slot CBs in the league. The only thing that can stop him from putting up massive numbers will be in the Chargers get so far ahead that they stop feeding him the ball, but considering that they are still working with backups at RB, I anticipate double digit targets for Allen again.

Terry McLaurin – Terry has been one of the most consistent receivers this season in terms of his usage for Washington’s offense. He averages 9.5 targets per week and just under 90 receiving yards per game. This week, he’s at home against the 29th ranked pass defense in the league and though William Jackson is a solid corner, the other two starters are throwaways from the Vikings that have done nothing to improve the secondary of the Bengals. Put McLaurin down for 7 catches, over 100 yards and a TD.

Diontae Johnson – The formula worked last week. Diontae played the whole game and when that happens, he sees double digit targets and easily pays off his salary. This week, he gets the Jags down in Jacksonville against the second worst defense in the league and 31st against the pass. It’s a challenge for the Steelers to feed so many mouths as they have great options at WR, RB and TE, but Diontae seems to be a favorite for Big Ben as he’s been able to collect the most targets when healthy.

Marvin Jones Jr (Marvin Hall as well) – Golladay, Amendol and Swift are all out this week for the Lions so they are going to need to throw the ball to someone and I think Jones and Hall are both great plays this week. Though the Panthers are awful against the run and I think AP has a solid day, I cannot envision a scenario where this game turns in Detroit being able to control the ball on the ground All Day (that’s an Adrian Peterson joke). The Panthers rank 24th against the pass and Jones has four TDs in his last three games.

Marvin Hall should also get in on the action this week and since Dalvin is so expensive, you might need to drop down to someone like Hall for cap space. He’s been a contributor since Golladay went down and has tremendous downfield speed which is going to be a problem for the slow footed, Rasul Douglas. If Hall catches just one deep ball, that could be enough to pay off his $3800 salary for the week.

Amari Cooper – I think Amari Cooper is going to have a big day for the Cowboys this week. The Vikings have been able to get away with having a makeshift secondary the last few weeks in going up against teams that really only had one receiver that they had to focus on stopping. They won’t be able to get away with that against the Cowboys trio of top tier talent and that will leave a lot of one on one matchups to exploit for the returning Andy Dalton to work with. Last season, against a better Vikings secondary, Cooper was targeted 14 times, caught 11 passes for 147 yards and a TD. With the Vikings likely being able to put up a lot of points against the Cowboy defense, this game has shootout potential and the Vikings do not rush the passer all that well which should give Dalton plenty of time to pile up some big passing numbers this week.

Jakobi Meyers – I am surprised to see Meyers still priced below $5k this week. He’s had 37 targets in his last four games so by now, you would think he’d get a boost into the upper $5k range. He’s got a great matchup in Houston this week against the 22nd ranked pass defense in the league in a game that has the potential for some scoring. With Julian Edelman still sidelined, he is the top pass catching threat for the Patriots for the foreseeable future.

 

TE DK 50000 FD 60000
Mark Andrew 4900 9.8% 6500 10.8%
TJ Hockenson 4200 8.4% 6000 10.0%
Dallas Goedert 3800 7.6% 5800 9.7%
Logan Thomas 3300 6.6% 5200 8.7%

*FOR FANDUEL – TAYSOM HILL IS LISTED AS A TE. IF YOU PLAY ON FANDUEL, YOU ARE PLAYING TAYSON HILL FOR $4500. STOP READING HERE AND MOVE ON!*

Mark Andrews – Without the other big names on the main slate, Andrews is the best TE on the board this week and his price has come down enough this season that you do not face the same risks as when we had to pay over $6k to roster him. He’s been held without a TD the last four weeks, but is usually Lamar’s favorite target down near the goal line so a little positive regression seems to be in order this week.

TJ Hockenson – With no Kenny Golladay or Danny Amendola, the Lions are down to Marvin Jones and TJ as top targets this week. He’s up against the Panthers who are ranked 22nd in the league against the TE this season and his price came down a lot after a lack of output last week. He’s going to get some looks in the red zone this week with the Lions dealing with so many injuries.

Dallas Goedert – Dallas got smacked in the head against the Giants right at the beginning of the game and came out for a couple of series to go through concussion protocol. When he returned, it took a few more series before Wentz looked his way and though he was able to somewhat salvage the game, it was not the effort we were looking for. Still, he gets a price cut this week, he is the top TE on an offense that involves the TE a disproportionate amount and he is still capable of having a massive day with his athletic ability.

Logan Thomas – Is Logan Thomas a thing again? I rolled my eyes, too, but this is Alex Smith at QB now. It is different this time! Alex Smith is the king of the dump off pass (see JD McKissic above) and will keep Thomas involved. We’re looking at roughly six targets this week against the 28th ranked defense in the league against the TE which is not bad at all for the price.

 

DEF DK 50000 FD 60000
Pittsburgh 4600 9.2% 5000 8.3%
Chargers 4000 8.0% 4500 7.5%
Washington 2900 5.8% 4100 6.8%
Atlanta 2300 4.6% 3200 5.3%

Chargers – They play the Jets at home this week. I almost stopped after that sentence, but the big key here is a top defensive line against a bottom tier offensive line. When the Chargers get ahead, Sam Darnold will be forced to throw often and that is when Joey Bosa will feast and the secondary will pick off a few errant passes.

Washington – Washington is back at home on its slop field and has a very strong matchup with its defensive line going up against one of the worst offensive lines in the league. With Joe Mixon still sidelined that should lead to additional dropbacks for Joe Burrow which

Atlanta – The true punt play this week on defense. This is a little risky, but with Taysom Hill making his first NFL start, he is going to make some mistakes this week. He’s put the ball on the ground a number of times already this season and he’s never had to make a throw in an NFL game that did not come from being involved in a gadget play.

 

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Zachary Turcotte
By Zachary Turcotte November 21, 2020 14:54

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