The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 12

The trend continues to be one of trading wins and losses this season as I got back on track with a nice performance in Week 11. I’ve largely felt good about my process over the last couple of months, so the losses have not been too upsetting, but obviously the wins help my confidence and typically, as the season goes on, I tend to perform better so I am looking to close out the 2020 season strong and head into the playoffs with a nice bankroll that we can keep building off of as the NFL season ends and the PGA returns.

Week 11 had a clear objective at the outset which was to make sure I found a way to get Dalvin Cook into my lineup. In a year where it has been tough to find a lot of easy wins at the RB position, it forces our hand when we have an obvious solution in front of us, even if the price is climbing up higher than we would like. Dalvin was the standout option on the board last week against a Cowboy defense that continues to get bludgeoned by the run (see Antonio Gibson on Thanksgiving for the most recent example). Cook’s salary is higher than I am usually comfortable paying, but once you start to talk about 30+ touches per week as the standard on a team that is heavily committed to running its offense through him, it becomes easier to swallow a number that high, especially when the matchups are so fantastic.

We have a couple of more weeks that this should continue, but as the stats pile up, beware of what is lurking over the last few weeks of the season when Dalvin runs into Tampa Bay, Chicago and New Orleans. If he continues to play well, his salary could climb into the five figure range, at which point we need to be ready to jump off the Cook train before the value runs out rather suddenly. Fortunately, last week went well and he eclipsed 100 yards and managed to get into the end zone. I actually felt like he left a few points on the field as he did get stuffed on a few attempts near the goal line. The Vikings are missing tackle, Ezra Cleveland right now which is huge blow as he’s played really well as a rookie and has helped to elevate the play of the offensive line over the last month.

Beyond Dalvin, we needed to figure out how to build a roster that could be competitive after eating up such a big salary cap hit. Fortunately, the Saints played Jameis Winston after Drew Brees was hurt against the 49ers which helped to keep the price of Taysom Hill down to a level where he was as close to a free space as we will see all year in cash games. The Falcons just do not have much of defense this season in defending the pass and with Hill’s running ability, we knew it would not take much for him to put up strong fantasy numbers. Were it not for a holding penalty, he would have been over 30 points for the week, but as it was, he accounted for over 230 passing yards, 50 rushing yards and two TDs (both running), exceeding my baseline passing yardage projection by 50 yards and hitting the other two projections right on the nose. The combination of his low price point, plus the urgent need to make room for Dalvin made Taysom a pretty easy play, though in the weeks moving forward, we will have to be a little bit selective as there will be teams that provide a much tougher test than Atlanta.

The next spot I locked in was my defense. I always like to get that out of the way if I can and Washington had a nice spot at home against the Bengals. I zeroed in on the Cincy OL vs Washington DL matchup and it was ugly for the Bengals. It does not shock me in the least that this was the game where Joe Burrow’s season came to an end. Washington has a really talented core of players on the defensive line that should dominate for years to come and they ended Burrow’s day, which for all intents and purposes, ended any chance the Bengals had of moving the football for the rest of the day. Sometimes with my defense, I will completely punt and pay all the way down to the bottom to pick up some extra cap space, but here I thought Washington was priced about $500 lower than what I would have anticipated so I really felt like I was getting a lot of value at that price and was pleased that it worked out.

I was not that excited about the running back position for the week with the names available so I made the decision to play four receivers rather than three backs. This has been a season where there have not always been a lot of strong value plays at RB so I have not felt like playing an additional receiver has hurt me in the weeks where I opted to go that direction. Generally speaking, with the full point PPR, using a pass catching RB makes a lot of sense for the flex, but with injuries and byes, it just has not felt like the options have been all that palatable of late.

Of the backs left, I ended up using Kalen Ballage. Duke Johnson has not been as reliable in a starting role (though the Texans finally worked him back into the passing game on Thursday) for Houston and though I could have dropped down to JD McKissic, I just could not get myself to pull the trigger on a guy who we knew would be the second option for Washington out of the backfield. Ballage may not be a world beating talent, but he has shown himself to be a capable backup, built like a battering ram and with good hands in the passing game. I also liked the potential game script against the Jets where I anticipated the Chargers getting out to a big lead and then feeding Ballage with carries in the second half to close the game. His numbers were not flashy, but he was effective so the play worked out well.

I had two players that I really wanted to fit into my lineup as pass catchers, Keenan Allen and Terry McLaurin. I love finding standout #1 WRs where there is NO question about who the lead dog is going to be each week. If I can avoid the Lockett vs DK or Thielen vs Jefferson quandaries, my life on Sundays will be much less stressful. That is what you get with Allen and McLaurin. Keenan had his toughest game of the season the previous week against Miami, but the Jets were the perfect ‘get well’ team for him to encounter. Every Saturday night/Sunday morning, Stat Boy (Erik Dantoft) and I go back and forth about which players we plan to use and the outlines for lineups we are working on. We ended up debating on Keenan Allen. Erik worried that the Chargers would blow out the Jets and Allen would not get as many looks in the second half. Fortunately, Keenan had nine catches for over 100 yards at halftime and coasted to a monster, slate busting type of performance for the week. The lesson here is that we do not want to overthink a great matchup. If a game turns into a blowout, so be it. Realize that if that happens, it usually means the star player you were worried about had a huge start to the game to help his team get out to a big lead. Take it and run!

It was fortunate that Allen went off for a big game as McLaurin came up 16 yards short of the 100 yard bonus against the Bengals. It looked like he would get over 100 yards easily, but once the Bengals lost Joe Burrow, they did not need to throw the ball as much and turned to the ground game to grind out most of the second half. McLaurin played fine and it was not a total bust, but on DraftKings, there is a big difference between five catches for 84 yards versus six catches for 100 yards.

Jakobi Meyers was in my lineup from my first build moving forward. The salary seemed way too cheap based upon his recent usage and he had a great matchup against the Texans on the road. Unfortunately, we got Belichik’d again. I rarely ever will use skill position players for the Patriots. About the only player I have turned to over the last few seasons with any regularity has been Julian Edelman. Everyone else is just a cog in the Belichik machine. From week to week, you never know who will be the key man in the game plan which enrages fantasy owners, but delights that hometown fans. The good thing about using Meyers last week was that we knew he would be really heavily owned so that if he busted they way that he did, it would hit a large swath of the field and likely would not diminish our chances of getting into the money.

The other WR pick was pretty straightforward as well. I had limited funds, but Brandin Cooks was right there at $5200. He’s been seeing 8-10 targets a game over the last 5-6 games and the Pats are much weaker in the secondary this year than they have been in a long time. We got unlucky here in that Cooks caught a TD in the second quarter, but it was called back due to a penalty. Like McLaurin, he just missed out on the 100 yard receiving bonus by 15 yards so his performance was okay, but so close to being great.

Finally at TE, I had limited funds to work with. I really wanted to use Dallas Goedert at $3800, but could not find the extra $500 anywhere. I could have dropped down at defense but liked the spot for Washington. I also thought that Logan Thomas had a chance to have one of his better games of the season against a bad Bengals pass defense. Sadly, Thomas gave us next to nothing. What really hurt was that Goedert bounced back in a huge way for the Eagles so this decision could have been costly.

For the week, I was pleased with how the roster came together. I went back and forth on a couple of names, but all in all, the key decisions were made early in the week and not a lot changed going into Sunday other than finding the right combination to be in under the cap after paying the big dollars for Dalvin. Now it is just a question of how many more weeks we can work around his big cap hit before we finally have to make the decision to fade him.

 

Week 11 Team
Taysom Hill	4800	25.42
Dalvin Cook	9000	29
Kalen Ballage	5600	14.1
Terry McLaurin	6900	13.4
Brandin Cooks	5200	12.5
Jakobi Meyers	4900	6.8
Logan Thomas	3300	2.8
Keenan Allen	7400	38.5
Washington	2900	12
	50000	154.52

 

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UPDATE: I always wait until Friday night/Saturday morning to write my column because I know that there is news coming out deep into the week/weekend and that anything I write on Thursday will be totally changed by Saturday so I try to make sure that whatever I put out is ready to go and does not require a lot of changes. This season in particular, we have to be flexible with everything given the issues around COVID. We have been fortunate for much of the NFL season to avoid too many rough weeks, but Week 12 will likely go down as one of the crazier weeks as far as teams and players affected by the virus.

The most startling news of the day came late on Saturday afternoon out of Denver where the Broncos lost their entire QB group for the game on Sunday against the Saints. I am shocked that the NFL did not bump this game back a couple of days or come up with something more reasonable for the Broncos to work with. As of now, it looks like practice squad WR Kendall Hinton will be taking the snaps this week and possibly RB Royce Freeman as well. This makes the Broncos unplayable this week on the offensive side of the ball. I had little interest prior to the game, but definitely avoiding them now.

The one option that comes into play on this game is the defense of the Saints. The price is not cheap, but this is likely to be a struggle for Denver all day. It seems like the type of game where the Broncos will be lucky to get to 10 points. Vic Fangio is not exactly known for his creativity in running the offense so I am not even sure many gadget type plays are in the arsenal for the week. Hinton did play QB for Wake Forest for three years and was not terrible, but this is a huge step up. The closest thing to this that I can remember is back in January of 2013 when the Vikings went to Lambeau to take on Green Bay the week after an incredible win at the dome over those same Packers where Adrian Peterson nearly broke the single season rushing record. We had no idea that Christian Ponder was injured until the news filtered through the parking lot to our tailgate that Joe Webb would be getting the nod. The first series worked out well as the Vikes ran w Webb and AP and managed a FG, but that was about it until late in the game when the Vikes managed a meaningless TD on a broken play and went on to lose, 24-10. Even in that situation, Webb had been the backup during the year so it was not completely crazy that he was back there taking snaps.

This Broncos/Saints game is wild. I would expect mistakes and few opportunities for points. The only knock here is that Denver will likely keep the ball on the ground the majority of the game which should limit sacks and could even limit turnovers. The Saints defense is an attractive option, but I’d almost rather have a QB that is just good enough for them to try to run the normal offense through rather than Hinton who they will go out of their way to keep in low risk situations.

ADD SAINTS DEF – $3800

For the Dolphins, the word came down that Tua was unlikely to play due to a thumb injury which means that once again, our favorite gunslinger, Ryan Fitzpatrick is back under center for Miami and just in time to take on the team he helped to beat 24-0 in his last start just a few weeks ago, the NY Jets. This should be a great spot for Fitz as the Jets are awful on defense and rank 27th in the league. The best part is that they are a funnel defense, ranking 9th against the run and dead last against the pass so Fitz will have to throw the ball in order for the Dolphins to have success. With Salvon Ahmed ruled out, the Dolphins are down to Matt Breida, Patrick Laird and DeAndre Washington in the backfield. With the receiving corp also banged up, this should be a big spot for DeVante Parker to step up. I hated much of what I saw out of Tua in recent weeks, but Parker has nice chemistry with Fitz and with Preston Williams out and Jakeem Grant questionable to go with a hamstring injury, I now like Parker a lot tomorrow against a terrible Jets secondary that was roasted by the Chargers last week.

ADD RYAN FITZPATRICK QB – $5500

ADD DeVANTE PARKER WR – $5900

For the Buffalo Bills, John Brown was placed on the injured reserve list today which will sideline him for the next three games. This will elevate Gabriel Davis into a starting role for the Bills alongside Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs. Clearly, he’s still the #3 option for Josh Allen, but he was a solid contributor in the weeks where Brown was out and he has found the end zone three times this season. He’s one of several punt options this week that are options in clearing out salary cap space.

ADD GABRIEL DAVIS WR – $3000

Perhaps the biggest news for cash games, from my perspective was when the Colts announced that Jonathan Taylor was added to the COVID list today. I had looked at the Colts RB situation, but could not get myself to pull the trigger on Nyheim Hines as a change of pace back simply due to so many mouths to field in a committee of running backs. However, with Taylor out, I think Hines and Wilkins will split carries, but Hines will be the main target out of the backfield. In 10 games, he has 45 targets, 36 catches for 296 yards and 4 TDs. Against this same Titan defense two weeks ago, he had 18 touches, 115 total yards and 2 TDs. If we can get 15 opportunities this week with five coming through the air, Hines is a steal for his salary.

ADD NYHEIM HINES RB – $4600

It pains me to add any players from the Jags this week, but as bad as they are and as little as I like Mike Glennon, he is going to need to throw the ball to somebody this week. What jumps out even  more is that the game script against the Brown likely has the Jags down in the second half and having to throw the ball to try to stay in the game. With DJ Chark and Chris Conley both sidelined with injuries this week and Dede Westrbrook still on IR, the Jags have a healthy Keelan Cole and a somewhat banged up, Laviska Shenault to rely on to pass the ball. What put Cole over the top for me is that Cleveland is missing top CB Denzel Ward this week which means he could be in for a big day. When he’s been involved in the offense this season, he’s had four solid weeks where he exceeded value based on his salary. Now thrust into the WR1 role, in a game where the Jags will be throwing often, this is a great spot for him to see 7-10 targets.

ADD KEELAN COLE WR – $3600

One final add for the week, I really like the way that the Bucs are utilizing Antonio Brown. Clearly, Brown and Brady have great chemistry and Brady is doing everything that he can to get his new weapon the football. His targets have climbed from 5 to 8 to 13 and now he’s got a great matchup in a shoot out against the Chiefs today and he is still affordable below $6k.

ADD ANTONIO BROWN WR – $5700

 

QB	DK	50000	FD	60000
Kyler Murray	8200	16.4%	9100	15.2%
Patrick Mahomes	8000	16.0%	9000	15.0%
Josh Allen	7600	15.2%	8600	14.3%
Justin Herbert	7200	14.4%	8400	14.0%
Matt Ryan	5900	11.8%	7600	12.7%
Derek Carr	5700	11.4%	7100	11.8%

 

Kyler Murray – With 40 point upside, Murray is under consideration every week for DFS purposes, even if his shoulder is a little banged up. With the ability to run for 100 yards, he’s the best dual threat in the league at QB this season, having quickly surpassed Lamar Jackson now that he has the best wideout in the league to throw to every week. He’s up against the Pats this week who should be able to put together a game plan to keep things competitive, but the defense just is not that good anymore and rank last in the league and 31st against the pass.

Patrick Mahomes – Great spot to play Mahomes this week against the Bucs. Tampa has the 2nd ranked defense in the league, but can be had through the air as Jared Goff lit them up last week for 376 yards. The Bucs are so good at stuffing the run that I expect Andy Reid to abandon the run before too long and Mahomes will be over 30 fantasy points this week in a game that is expected to be high scoring. The Bucs are down CB Jamel Dean with a concussion so the secondary will be much softer than normal.

Josh Allen – The Chargers have been involved in seven straight games where the over has hit and this will be the 8th. The Chargers are struggling to find healthy bodies to run the ball so will likely again turn to Herbert to throw the ball often, which in turn will force the Bills to throw the ball to keep up. Allen has played the two best games of his season in his most recent starts and with the Chargers down CB Casey Hayward and top pass rusher Melvin Ingram, the Bills should have no problem moving the ball this week.

Derek Carr – Our value play of the week is Derek Carr at $5700. The Falcons are a funnel defense that are good at stopping the run, but rank 26th against the pass and could not manage to stop Taysom Hill last week in his first NFL start. Carr has played well this season in an offense that is balanced between the pass and run and does not rely on him to have to go out to win every game with Josh Jacobs playing well running the ball. This game should be high scoring so while I have a 20 point DK expectation for Carr, the potential for a high ceiling game is possible this week.

 

RB	DK	50000	FD	60000
Dalvin Cook	9500	19.0%	11000	18.3%
Derrick Henry	7900	15.8%	8300	13.8%
Josh Jacobs	7200	14.4%	8000	13.3%
Nick Chubb	7100	14.2%	8400	14.0%
Wayne Gallman	5000	10.0%	5700	9.5%
Brian Hill	4000	8.0%	5100	8.5%

 

Dalvin Cook – I’ve talked about Cook at length already. He is going to get 30 touches again this week. With Adam Thielen out, the Vikes will have to lean on Cook that much harder to keep the season alive against the Panthers who rank 22nd against the run and 28th against pass catching RBs. With a 25 point floor, Cook is a great cash play again this week though his salary creates some work to build the rest of your roster.

Derrick Henry – As we get to the end of the season, Derrick Henry plays his best football. When teams get worn down and beat up, Henry pounds away and the last two years, he’s been the MVP of December and the early rounds of the playoffs. He went over 100 yards against the Colts just two weeks ago, but now, the Colts are down three defensive linemen, taking away from one the top units in the league.

Nick Chubb – The Jags are ranked 31st in the league on defense this season and will have a hard time containing the run heavy Browns this week.  The Browns have one of the best offensive lines in the league while the Jags rank near the bottom for its defensive line. Though Chubb is not as involved in the passing game as I would like, he’s a near lock to again break 100 yards, which is big in a week where the RB position is thin.

Wayne Gallman – Gallman has played well in taking over the starting job for the Giants over the last month. He’s averaging 16 opportunities per game in his last four starts and just under 16 DK points per week during that stretch as he’s managed to score five TDs. He’s up against the 23rd ranked rush defense in the league this week against the Bengals and with the injuries that Cincy is dealing with, I think Gallman will get plenty of touches in the second half.

Brian Hill – With Todd Gurley not able to go this week, Brian Hill looks like the cheap RB plug and play of the week in a game against the worst ranked run defense in the NFL. With 16 catches this season, Hill can also shown himself a capable part of the passing game. He’s too cheap and has too good of a matchup to pass up on this week, especially since we are in need of salary cap space.

 

WR	DK	50000	FD	60000
Keenan Allen	8000	16.0%	8200	13.7%
Tyreek Hill	7800	15.6%	8600	14.3%
Stefon Diggs	7600	15.2%	7900	13.2%
Calvin Ridley	7100	14.2%	8100	13.5%
Justin Jefferson	6300	12.6%	7000	11.7%
DJ Moore	6200	12.4%	7300	12.2%
Sterling Shepard	5100	10.2%	5400	9.0%
Curtis Samuel	5100	10.2%	5900	9.8%
Tyler Boyd	5000	10.0%	6900	11.5%
Andy Isabella	3000	6.0%	4700	7.8%

 

Keenan Allen – Keenan is seeing a ridiculous number of targets this season, averaging 12 targets per week since Justin Herbert took over as the starter. He’s in another great spot this week against slot corner, Taron Johnson as Tre Davious White does not seem likely to be shadowing him. With limited options at RB for the Chargers (even Ballage is questionable this week), Allen has been almost a de facto RB as they have used him for short passes to keep the chains moving.

Tyreek Hill – The Rams threw for 376 yards against the Bucs on Monday night and the Bucs are now missing top cornerback, Jamel Dean, who is out with a concussion. Cooper Kupp destroyed slot corner, Sean Murphy-Bunting for 11 catches for 145 yard and now will be facing Tyreek Hill in one of the highest point total games of the week. With how Tampa stuffs the run, the Chiefs will be throwing the ball all day and Hill should have a few explosive plays this week.

Stefon Diggs – The Chargers will not have Casey Hayward this week at corner, but do get back Chris Harris after missing most of the season due to injury. Diggs again should be able to take advantage as he is averaging over 10 targets per week, 7 catches and over 90 yards. With how well the Chargers throw the ball, I expect a lot of points out of this game. The Chargers are also without top pass rusher, Melvin Ingram which should give Josh Allen plenty of time to throw the ball this week.

Calvin Ridley – With Julio Jones not expected to play, Calvin Ridley gets a big boost this week. We finally do not have to guess between the two and Ridley is facing the 24th ranked defense in the league. He’s up against Trayvon Mullen this week in one of the top mismatches on the board this week.

Justin Jefferson – Like Ridley, Jefferson gets a boost this week with Adam Thielen out due to COVID. Other weeks, it is tough to know which Viking WR to choose, but the drop off from Jefferson to all other pass catchers for the Vikings is enormous. Between Rasul Douglas and Troy Pride, neither has the ability to stick with Jefferson. The Panthers are already going to have their hands full trying to stop Dalvin Cook so when the Vikings hit them with play action, Jefferson is going to beat them deep. At $6300, Jefferson is one of the best value plays of the week.

DJ Moore/Curtis Samuel – While Robby Anderson is the big play threat for the Panthers, and he is capable of getting one this week, I prefer DJ Moore or Curtis Samuel this week. Moore seems to be the steady possession receiver, but Samuel has come on the last five weeks, mostly while CMC is out. He’s averaging 7 targets and 6 catches per week over the last five games along with two carries per game during that stretch. In the last five games, Samuel has five TDs. With four carries coming inside the red zone, he’s someone that the Panthers are turning to more and more now that Mike Davis seems to be running out of gas.

Sterling Shepard – Since returning from injury four weeks ago, Shepard has averaged 8 targets and 6.5 catches per week. He’s got a great matchup this week against Lashaun Sims and the 30th ranked pass defense in the league. The ceiling may not be high for him this week as I expect the Giants to get up in this game, but Shepard has established a solid floor for himself from week to week so that we can avoid a total bust game out of him.

 

TE	DK	50000	FD	60000
Travis Kelce	7000	14.0%	8000	13.3%
Darren Waller	6000	12.0%	7100	11.8%
Hayden Hurst	3900	7.8%	5500	9.2%
Austin Hooper	3800	7.6%	5100	8.5%
Kyle Rudolph	2800	5.6%	4600	7.7%

 

Travis Kelce – Over the last six weeks, Kelce has had at least 22.5 points in five games, only busting once in a blowout win over the Broncos on the road. This week, he’s in a great spot on the road against the Bucs in a game with an O/U of 55.5. The Bucs stuff the run which will force Mahomes to air it out even more than normal and Kelce is going to be a big beneficiary against a Bucs squad that ranks 23rd against the TE and got torched through the air by Jared Goff on Monday night.

Darren Waller – If you do not have the funds for Kelce, Waller is a great fit this week for $6k against the Falcons who are the worst team in the league against the TE this season. The only problem with Waller is that he has not been as consistent as last year though his upside is as high as any TE in the league. Given that the Falcons are solid against the run, the Raiders should have to put the ball in air more than normal to keep drives going in what should be a high scoring game between two bad defenses.

Hayden Hurst – If he plays, Hurst is in a nice spot to bounce back this week against the Raiders after getting shut out last week against the Saints. The Raiders rank 25th against the TE and were torched by Travis Kelce last weekend. Hurst is nursing an injured ankle and is questionable to play this week, but if he’s good to go, he should see extra targets with Julio Jones likely out this week.

Kyle Rudolph – With Irv Smith out this week along with Adam Thielen, the Vikings are going to be very limited with pass catchers this week which should lead to an uptick for Kyle Rudolph at $2800. Carolina has been mediocre against the TE and Rudolph is still a great target in the red zone so while he is not likely to put up big numbers, I think he has a chance to catch 5-6 passes this week.

 

DEF	DK	50000	FD	60000
Rams	3700	7.4%	4500	7.5%
Giants	3200	6.4%	4300	7.2%
Browns	3100	6.2%	4900	8.2%
Jets	2100	4.2%	3000	5.0%

 

Giants – The Bengals are badly beaten up right now with Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon or IR and Gio Bernard still questionable to play this week. With Brandon Allen leading the way for Cincy, I feel good about the Giants being able to put pressure on him to force him into turning the ball over as Allen was terrible in a short stint as the starter for the Broncos in 2019.

Browns – The Jags have turned to Mike Glennon this week at QB which means they are committing to at least two INTs and perhaps a fumble or two from the error prone, career backup. The Jags are also down two of its top passing catching threats with DJ Chark and Chris Conley both sidelined. When the Browns get ahead in this game, Glennon will be forced to throw the ball often and the Browns are going to benefit enormously from that.

Jets – From time to time, I will just punt away at defense and that could very well happen this week with the Jets. This play is as much about Tua as it is anything else. The Dolphins won in spite of him for a few weeks, but then went up to Denver last week where Tua was so bad that he was benched with the Dolphins still involved in a close game. He should be able to get his swagger back against the Jets if he plays (questionable w a thumb injury), but I think this could be an ugly, low scoring game with the Jets fighting with everything they have to try to avoid going through the entire season without a win.

 

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