The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 13

The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 13

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We are back for Week 13 of the NFL season and in the stretch run to the playoffs as we enter the month of December. It was a really fun Week 12 as we bounced back well collectively and had a few really nice GPP hits for the FGI community. I was really encouraged by the response to my column last week. I do my best to help you guys win every season and wanted to really pull back the curtain on what goes into my analysis and how I select the players for this column every week. I also like to do a deep dive into my own adventures in cash games. I make great picks, but I also make mistakes and learning from my mistakes can help you as much as it can help me.

Last week, my biggest mistake for my own cash lineup was some late morning tinkering. I am in a league that includes all games on Sunday and Monday night so often times I forget to adjust that lineup when I am messing with my cash lineup for the main slate. This offers the unique experience of getting to see what I missed out on for the main slate.

Sometimes, I wish I paid a little less attention on Sunday mornings. I start looking at details that I should probably just let be. Last Sunday, I started looking at the conditions in NY around the Jets vs Bears game. It was rainy and cold throughout the day with some wind as well. With the Bears going to a backup and potentially a 3rd string QB, it felt like the type of game where the Jets would get a lead and slowly grind the Bears down. I envisioned something like a 23-10 type of game where the Jets ran the ball to kill the clock in the second half. Makes sense, right? Well, not quite. Somehow, the Bears got off to a fast start and got their 10 points right away before totally fading away. The Jets were able to move the ball through the air in the first half.

Initially, I had Garrett Wilson in my cash game lineup due to price and matchup. As the game approached, however, I thought Michael Carter was the better play. Unfortunately, Carter was injured in the first half after 8 touches. What is really disappointing is that Carter’s backup, Zonovan Knight was really effective with his 14 carries and 4 targets. Had I gotten those touches out of Carter, things would have been okay. Wilson ended up catching only five passes, but two went for TDs so that killed me. He remained fairly chalky, even in the poor weather.

My Wilson pivot caused three total changes. I went from Garrett Wilson/Hayden Hurst/Keenan Allen to Josh Palmer/Tyler Conklin/Michael Carter. I managed to lose ground with each of those plays. The TE swap was just a couple of points as I needed to find salary savings to fill out my roster. The Allen vs Palmer swap was not really that bad either. The difference was about 5 points but they each had 7 targets and 5 catches. Allen just happened to score on one of his so that was a little unlucky. The Wilson for Carter pivot was a dagger in cash games. So how did my initial team perform?

My unadjusted team ended up with 154.52 points and cashed with ease. The lineup more or less built itself. The RBs were locks with Jeff Wilson and Raachad White being obvious plays as backups jumping up to starters with injuries derailing others. Geno Smith was the easy value play at QB against the worst pass defense in the league. I used Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins at WR and while neither was a bust, they are both capable of much bigger games than what the put up on Sunday. The Chiefs were the obvious punt defense against a Rams team that is starting a preseason offense at this point of the season.

I think I just need to stop making Sunday swaps. I work all week on putting together my analysis and usually by Saturday morning, I have my team set to go. Barring some really important injury news, I could do without tampering around small, weather related issues. Now that is not to say that the weather should be ignored. We have seen games whited out in the snow or storms that bring the passing game to a halt, but a little rain was probably a bit much to react to last week.