The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 13

Week 12 was one of the wildest weeks that we have ever experienced in all my years of DFS. One team played a full game with a practice squad WR as its QB. One game was moved from Thanksgiving to Sunday, to Tuesday, to Wednesday afternoon in the early afternoon. We had one of the most massive point scoring performances of all time…in the first quarter of a game. There were more crazy changes Saturday afternoon than we’ll likely see in any other normal season, though I will not rule out more chaos as teams struggle to work around the ongoing virus.

There were plenty of good lessons for me last week. I felt like I did some things well, some things not so well and I did not trust my instincts in one particular instance that proved to be costly. The builds that I used early in the week changed greatly by the end of the week and again on Saturday night and into Sunday morning. There was one big question coming into the week that I needed to answer where I failed myself: Did I want to pay up for Dalvin against the Panthers?

Dalvin Cook has done some incredible things this season and broken slates on a number of occasions this year. He’s a dynamic talent as a three down RB who can run and catch the ball effectively and has a very physical running style, reminiscent of Adrian Peterson in his earlier days. He had what seemed like a great matchup against the Panthers last week, but upon examining it a little closer, it was not quite what it appeared to be at the beginning of the week. On the Vikings side of the ball, two key players were missing last week. Adam Thielen was placed on the COVID list and guard, Ezra Cleveland missed his second consecutive game due to injury. Cleveland is a rookie that has been improving as the season has gone on and provided enough stability starting at guard that the Vikings were comfortable releasing Pat Elflein. Is he star? No, far from it. However, his absence definitely was felt against both the Cowboys and Panthers. For Thielen, losing him meant that the Panthers could devote the full attention of the secondary to slowing down rookie WR Justin Jefferson. While JJ did still catch seven passes for 70 yards and two TDs, those yards did not come easy and most came late in the game on the last couple of drives. Considering how little the Vikes use the other receivers in the passing game, this allowed Carolina to play a lot tighter towards the line of scrimmage which helped to close down a lot of the running lanes that are usually open for Cook.

On the defensive side of the ball, Carolina was the worst team in the league against the run last season and started that way again in 2020. However, if you have watched them as the season has progressed, they’ve steadily improved throughout the season, moving from around 30th up to 18th at the end of last week. Though that does not make them elite by any stretch, when combined with the other factors in play, it made Dalvin less than an automatic decision. The biggest issue when you use Dalvin at this salary is that it is almost entirely a defensive play. Given his extreme expected ownership, my decision to play Dalvin was based not so much on my read of the game, but on how heavily I thought he would be owned. I knew Dalvin would likely be 70-80% owned so anything approaching a slate busting effort could destroy me if I faded him and even with a couple of factors against him, just on volume alone, he’s a threat to score 40 points.

When I decided on playing Dalvin, my rationale was to beat my opponents at other positions. I think I am good enough to read through the rest of the plays and come to positive EV decisions over competitors. The other big part of my decision was that late in the week, multiple starting RBs were ruled out and we ended up having some very cheap RB chalk to use that made Cook a much easier fit in my builds, which meant a much easier fit for everyone’s build. When Todd Gurley and Jonathan Taylor were both ruled out over the weekend, Brian Hill and Nyheim Hines were available and likely to get a good number of touches and both had solid matchups. That put my three RBs in place and though Hill did not work out, at that price and ownership level, I was far from crushed by his play.

At QB, Fitz entered the mix on Saturday after Tua was ruled out. Fitz was in a great spot against a Jets defense that he had thrown 3 TDs against in his last start. With most of his RBs missing in action due to injuries, we knew Fitz would need to air it out to keep the offense moving which is what he did in a grinding win over New York. It was a good effort, though not amazing, but he did enough to exceed value for his price.

On defense, we had a very special situation with the Saints. Originally, I had thought that I would just pay all the way down to the Jets and hope they did not take a zero, but when the Broncos were forced to use a practice squad WR as its QB due to potential COVID exposure, I felt like the Saints had significant upside potential. The Broncos completed only one pass all game and had it not been for a tipped pass INT, followed by a 58 yard FG for Denver, it would have been an easy shutout win for the Saints for three more points. Furthermore, it took a shoestring tackle on a fumble that the Saints recovered to prevent a defensive TD. Those two plays would have put the Saints at 23 points for the week. If I can pay $3800 and have a shot at a 20+ point week, it’s not a bad idea to take advantage of it.

At TE, I felt like Kelce was the play. I wanted a pass catcher in the Bucs/KC game, and Kelce is capable of putting up monster numbers. With the Bucs not being that great about defending the TE, it felt like it would be another big week for Kelce. While an 8/82 line is not bad, we really needed him to get to 100 yards and find the end zone. In playing Kelce, I had to sacrifice any shot to play Tyreek Hill which proved to be heartbreaking.

The WR position was where I struggled after having locked in my other six plays. I did not have a huge amount of cap space, but did not love a lot of receivers in the middle range. A lot of times, I will avoid pairing a WR when paying up for an RB from the same team, but with Thielen out, $6300 was way too good of a price for Jefferson. With the Vikings not having a very widely used group of wideouts, JJ was going to get plenty of opportunities and it paid off well.

This did not leave me with much left for salary. I had to decide between Keelan Cole, Andy Isabella and Gabriel Davis for my low dollar buy. I ended up with Cole sine he looked to be the WR1 for the Jags last week and in going up against the Texans, it was a great spot for him to shine. The other two were in position to contribute, but it felt like they were the second or third choice for their respective teams. Isabella did not do much, but Davis nabbed a TE on a WR pass from Cole Beasley so that definitely hurt, though I was fine with the decision.

At that point, I had exactly $5700 remaining and felt like I was in ‘No Man’s Land’. I was $200 short of being able to get Devante Parker, but I also did not want to drop all the way down to Curtis Samuel either. I could not see a way to free up additional dollars so I hunted for an option and thought I had a good one in Antonio Brown. I thought adding another pass catcher in a game with a lot of offense could work out well and AB’s work in the Buc’s offense was increasing by the week. I rarely add a player to a lineup just because they fit under the cap, but that is exactly the mistake I made with Brown and it crushed me.

It’s not the AB was a bad play, it’s just a matter of Tom Brady having to try to feed so many mouths from week to week. AB is one of his ‘guys’, but with Evans, Godwin and Gronk, Brady has an embarrassment of riches around him so there will be weeks where certain players take a back seat, which AB did last Sunday. He was low owned as well which did not help as he busted and did very little for the week. The lesson here is pretty simple: Stick to your process. There was a reason that he did not make the column initially so why go back and talk myself into it? It just did not make sense and I paid the price.

Overall, I do not hate the team I built, but once again, it only takes one or two mistakes to take yourself out of contention and I think ignoring my instincts on Cook and jamming in a late player that I had not considered all week were big enough errors that I deserved the fate of coming up about 10 points short of cashing for the week. And now we are on to Week 13!

 

Week 12 Team
Ryan Fitzpatrick	5500	19.28
Brian Hill	4000	5.5
Nyheim Hines	4600	17.5
Justin Jefferson	6300	26
Antonio Brown	5700	3.1
Keelan Cole	3600	7.4
Travis Kelce	7000	16.2
Dalvin Cook	9500	11.2
Saints	3800	14
	50000	120.18

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QB	DK	50000	FD	60000
Deshaun Watson	7500	15.0%	8200	13.7%
Aaron Rodgers	6800	13.6%	8500	14.2%
Kirk Cousins	6400	12.8%	7300	12.2%
Ryan Fitzpatrick	6000	12.0%	7400	12.3%
Mitchell Trubisky	5400	10.8%	6900	11.5%

 

Deshaun Watson – Outside of a terrible weather game in Cleveland, Watson has been dominant since the firing of Bill O’Brien, averaging over 25 points DK points per week. While the Colts rank well on defense, in recent weeks, there have been some problems and they’ve give up a lot of points to both the Packers and Titans. Watson’s ability to both run and throw the ball gives us a high floor in cash games, and the lack of a strong running game means that Watson will be throwing often to try to keep this game close. Though Watson did lose Will Fuller to suspension, he still has Brandin Cooks and Keke Coutee to work with.

Aaron Rodgers – Rodgers is so impressive every year that we barely notice it anymore. He’s thrown 33 TDs to only 4 INTs. He’s averaging over 25 DK points over his last six starts and through the Eagles are better against the pass, Darius Slay can be beat by top WRs as was shown by DK Metcalf a week ago.

Kirk Cousins – A rare Cousins sighting in my cash game column, but with good reason. Kirk quietly played some of his best football over the last month. In five games, he completed over 70% of his passes for 1293 yards, 12 TDs and only 1 INT. Though this week feels like a Dalvin Cook game, I could see Cousins having a huge week, especially if the Jags keep it close as I suspect they will. The Vikes have the top two rated WRs in the league and Justin Jefferson is having one of the best rookie seasons at the position in NFL history. The Jags rank last in the NFL in total defense and are 31st against the pass.

Mitch Trubisky – Trubisky saved himself on Sunday night by leading a couple of garbage time drives to make the stats and score prettier than it was in Green Bay. Fortunately, the Bears host Detroit this week and it is a Lions team that ranks 30th in total defense, including 28th against the pass and 23rd against the run. This should be a spot for the Bears to get well on offense this week. Given his mobility and soft opponent, plus his bargain salary, Trubisky is a decent punt play option at QB with plenty of upside if he can get into rhythm.

 

RB	DK	50000	FD	60000
Dalvin Cook	9500	19.0%	10500	17.5%
James Robinson	7300	14.6%	7800	13.0%
Austin Ekeler	7100	14.2%	7000	11.7%
Devontae Booker	5500	11.0%	6000	10.0%
David Montgomery	5500	11.0%	6200	10.3%

*UPDATE* – Adding Myles Gaskin to the player pool today. He’s likely to see about 85%-90% of the workload today against a beat up Bengals defense and with Tua under center, I see the Dolphins going to the run more often than if Fitz was under center.

Dalvin Cook – To Dalvin or not to Dalvin? He banged up his ankle last Sunday, but returned to the game and does not carry an injury designation this week. He has another juicy matchup against the Jags and the 26th rush defense in the league. There should still be serious thought to fading him, but I think that again, he will come in heavily owned and the chance exists that he could light another slate on fire to where if you do not own him, your week could be over early. If this was not enough already, it just rolled across my phone that Alexander Mattison is out with an illness this week which gives Dalvin that much bigger of a push to handle a huge workload this week.

James Robinson – Robinson is the one bright spot on offense for the Jags this season. Though he does not break the slate like Cook, he has had four games this year that would qualify as massive. Robsinson is a three down back who can run and catch the ball and who has managed to hit double digits with his DK points in every game this year. He’s averaging 18 carries and four targets per week and the Vikings have struggled to stop the run against teams with a capable RB1 option.

Austin Ekeler – Ekeler returned to action last week and promptly has 30 opportunities to touch the ball with 14 carries and 16 targets. The Chargers have had all kinds of problems keeping RBs healthy so they will continue to lean on Ekeler to produce the rest of the way. The Chargers host the Pats this week and while the Pats traditionally have been strong on defense under Bill Belichick, this is their worst season in some time as they rank 28th against the run, 30th against the pass and 25th against pass catching RBs.

Devontae Booker – With Brando Jacobs out this week, Booker steps into the starting RB role for the Raiders and he should be a popular play for his price. The Jets are no pushover though as they rank 8th this season against the run. This could work out great as Booker is versatile and can catch passes, but the Raiders could also stall out the way they did in ATL last Sunday so he does fall short of being a ‘Must play’.

David Montgomery – Montgomery gets a priced break this week as his salary was posted before the game ended on Sunday night when he piled up the yardage against Green Bay. It never feels good to start Montgomery, but against Detroit might be one of the rare times for him to shine. He’s not without risk as he’s busted on us plenty of times before, but with the Bears having a very limited number of weapons, they will likely get him the ball 15-20 times on Sunday. As Detroit has one of the worst ranked defenses and has been gashed on the ground all year, it makes sense for the Bears to figure out if Montgomery is going to be a part of the long-term plan or if this is the end of the road.

 

WR	DK	50000	FD	60000
Davante Adams	9000	18.0%	9500	15.8%
DK Metcalf	8200	16.4%	8500	14.2%
Adam Thielen	7300	14.6%	7800	13.0%
Justin Jefferson	6900	13.8%	7700	12.8%
Devante Parker	6400	12.8%	6800	11.3%
Cooper Kupp	6100	12.2%	6600	11.0%
Robert Woods	5900	11.8%	7100	11.8%
Brandin Cooks	5600	11.2%	6500	10.8%
Breshad Perriman	3900	7.8%	5900	9.8%
Keke Coutee	3500	7.0%	4800	8.0%

 

Davante Adams – Adams is averaging 8 catches for 100 yards and a TD every week this season. That is the equivalent of 27 DK points. This week, he will have a tougher task against Darius Slay, but the Eagle CB was torched last week by DK Metcalf so Adams should not suffer significantly if he is shadowed. Adams is far and away the top receiver for Green Bay this season so although it is pricey to pay up for him, you know that unlike other teams, Adams is the priority in the passing attack.

DK Metcalf – I could have included Tyler Lockett here as well and once again, he has a much better matchup against one of the worst rated CBs in the league, and yet, that has not mattered for the vast majority of the season. We thought that perhaps DK would be challenged by Darius Slay in shadow coverage and instead, he had a career night and caught 10 passes for 177 yards. He’s to big, too fast and too strong for anyone to defend alone. Unless teams consistently put two players on him, he’s going to keep tearing the league apart. He does have another tough matchup as he is likely to be shadowed this week by James Bradberry, who ranks better than Slay and who has had success in slowing down the top WR for opposing teams (NYG rank 7th against WR1 this season), but Metcalf has shown himself to be strong all season despite tough matchups.

Adam Thielen/Justin Jefferson – One of these two will likely have a big day again this week, but it is tough to pick one over the other. I read an article this week that Justin Jefferson is on pace to have the best rookie season for a WR of all time, an incredible feat as he has a chance to post over 1300 yards this year, better than any season that Stefon Diggs ever had in five seasons in Minnesota. Yet, Thielen is a huge weapon near the goal line with 11 TDs, most of which came from short passes. All Viking receivers have amazing matchups this week as the Jags rank 31st in the league against the pass. The one thing that could throw a wrench into things would be if the Vikings blow the Jags out, but they have struggled to put anyone away and the Jags, despite switching QBs every couple of weeks, have been able to hang in against all but the best teams in the league.

Devante Parker – I am still awaiting word on the starting QB for Miami this week, but if it is Ryan Fitzpatrick, then Parker is a go for me. With the return of FItz, he saw 14 targets, caught eight passes and totaled 119 yards. He’ll be shadowed by William Jackson this week which will test him, but with how banged up the Dolphins are this week, Fitz is going to go back to him all day.

Cooper Kupp/Robert Woods – The Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to defending slot receivers and Cooper Kupp made them pay a year ago when he was targeted 16 times, caught 13 balls for 164 yards and two TDs. For Woods, it has been dominance against the Cards the last two years as well. Though he may see Patrick Peterson, PP is past his prime and in fact ranks in the bottom third of CBs in the league. When a big name CB slips, it is a great time to pounce before others take notice. Over his last four games against the Cards, he has a stat line of 46/32/409/2. He has also added 24 rushing yards for an additional TD. He’s been targeted 27 times the last two weeks so it is a surprise to see his price still below $6k.

Brandin Cooks/Keke Coutee – With Will Fuller suspended for the rest of the season and many injuries to other WRs on the team, the Texans are down to only a few options to get them through the last five games of the year. Coutee’s price is particularly attractive at $3500 as it helps to open up a lot of options for the rest of your team, though I am not entirely opposed to playing them both together (gasp, stacking!). With the Texans having limited options running the ball and playing against a Colts team that is going to put up big points against its defense, Watson is going to have to throw often to keep his team in the game so both plays could certainly hit value and Cooks looks like the biggest chalk play on the board.

 

TE	DK	50000	FD	60000
Darren Waller	6100	12.2%	7000	11.7%
Robert Tonyan	3700	7.4%	5900	9.8%
Kyle Rudolph	3400	6.8%	5000	8.3%
Anthony Firkser	2500	5.0%	4600	7.7%

 

Darren Waller – Waller is the best TE available this week and is up against the Jets who rank 20th overall against defending the TE. Waller does have games where he does nothing, but with Josh Jacobs out, look for Waller to play an expanded role in the offense, especially against a Jets team that ranks 27th overall in total defense.

Robert Tonyan – Tonyan has developed good chemistry with Aaron Rodgers and seems to have earned his trust. He’s back at home this week against the Eagles who rank 26th against the TE this season. He averages about 5 targets per week, but where he really does his damage is in the Red Zone where he’s caught 7 TD pass this season, which makes his salary this week look very reasonable.

Anthony Firkser – Firkser is likely a ‘Must Play’ for the minimum with Jonnu Smith out for the week. The last time Smith was out, Firkser caught 8 passes for 113 yards and a TD. This week, he’s up against the Browns who rank 27th in the league against the TE and who will have to really play tight to the line to try to stop the runaway freight train that is Derrick Henry.

 

DEF	DK	50000	FD	60000
Packers	3800	7.6%	4100	6.8%
Saints	3600	7.2%	4800	8.0%
Seahawks	3300	6.6%	4700	7.8%
Jets	2100	4.2%	3300	5.5%

 

Packers – This is more about how bad the Eagles have been than how well the Packers are playing. The Eagles have been unable to protect Carson Wentz all season and with Lane Johnson gone due to injury, he’s vulnerable to a solid pass rush and he has shown all year that he will make mistakes, especially with his confidence slipping and the rabid Philly fans losing faith in him quickly.

Saints – The Saints defense has scored at least 14 DK points per week over the last four games, including 16 against this same Falcons team two weeks ago where they sacked Matt Ryan eight times and picked him off twice.

Seahawks – The Carlos Dunlap trade has been a revelation for this Seattle defense as they have found the pass rush that had been missing for most of the season. They have 22 sacks in the last five games and get backup journeyman, Colt McCoy at home this week. There should be plenty of opportunities for more sacks and turnovers this week in a game where Seattle should be in control.

Jets – This is a straight punt, but the Jets are a scrappy group and showed up well against the Dolphins last week, picking up 9 DK points with several sacks and turnovers. The Raiders are missing Josh Jacobs this week so they will have a tougher time than normal moving the ball and travelling for another east coast, early Sunday start will make things that much more of a challenge. After watching the Raiders struggle in Atlanta last week, I can’t help but to think that going up the coast and playing in the cold will be a tougher road for them, even if the Jets are not what they’ve been in recent years on defense.

 

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