The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 14

Week 12 left me feeling frustrated as it was easily my worst week of the season, though the reality was that it was really just two pivots that took me out of the money so I was not that far off from another win. In any case, I wanted shake things off immediately and get refocused in order to close strong over the last five weeks of the regular season.

It continues to be a season where last minute injuries and COVID determine much of my strategy on Sunday mornings. If you are setting your lineups before Sunday and not paying much attention again until after kickoff, you are putting yourself in a very difficult position. It has been exceedingly rare for me this season to put in my dummy lineup on Friday or Saturday and to then leave it alone without making any changes.

Last week, the big news that came across the wire on Saturday night was that Jalen Hurts was out against the Jets and that the mustache man, Gardner Minshew would get the nod for the Eagles at QB. While I was not totally sold on Minshew, at $4k against the worst defense in the league, I just could not get away from the deep punt given the players that it opened up for me at other positions. The only other QB I really considered was who I went with on FD in Tom Brady. The discount for Minshew was not nearly as deep on FD so I stuck with Brady who I figured would have a big week against the Falcons. He certainly did not disappoint as the Bucs went back to firing away to their top two WRs in Evans and Godwin. Minshew started really strong against the Jets, but then the Eagles went into cruise control in the second half as the Jets ran out of gas and could not move the ball after scoring 18 points on their first three drives. However, getting over 18 points for a $4k player is right in range with what was projected and better than a 4x return so overall, I was pleased that it worked out.

At RB, the tough decision for me was whether or not to play Jonathan Taylor against the Texans. The matchup was perfect and I knew he would likely get over 100 yards and a TD. My only issue was that I loved the value at RB for the week and found three backs that I felt like had very similar upside, but for much lower salaries. Typically, my philosophy is to pay up for a strong RB since you can more clearly project consistent volume, but in this rare instance, I was willing to roll the dice a little bit to be really strong at WR without feeling like I was sacrificing much, if anything at RB. It largely worked out. Taylor did have a massive game rushing for 143 yards and 2 TDs for a total of 29.3 fantasy points. However, my three RBs held their own for the most part so I gained ground by fading Taylor.

The RBs I definitely wanted to use on both sites were Antonio Gibson and Sony Michel. With JD McKissic out, Gibson was in position for a huge amount of volume and he ended up with 29 touches, one of which resulted in a TD catch. At 5700, there were no builds that I looked at that did not include him. He is going to be a really strong play down the stretch and the Washington schedule is not terribly difficult the rest of the way. Darrell Henderson was active last week, but most reports held that he was in the emergency role only for the Rams so I stuck with Sony Michel who was extremely cheap on each site. He smashed the three down role last week with 27 touches and a TD in a great matchup against the Jags. We are fortunate that in recent years, the reporting on these games has improved so much as the specific details of Henderson’s role were the key to keeping Michel in my lineup.

The other two RBs I used were Leonard Fournette on FD and Eli Mitchell on DK. I preferred Fournette on FD as I had the extra funds available to get him and he’s really established his role at the RB1 and mostly iced out Gio Bernard in cementing himself as the premier pass catching RB for the Bucs. He caught an early TD and had his usual solid numbers against a weak Falcon defense. Eli Mitchell did not get going quite as much for the 49ers, but did find the end zone early and toughed 84 total yards to hit value. Though Taylor outscored all of my RBs, being able to move up at WR and defense were key plays for me to getting to the cash line and beyond.

I was always playing Cooper Kupp on both sites last week. He’s the clear cut WR1 for the Rams and you can count on 10+ targets a week. I also knew he would be extreme chalk so there was never a shot that I would fade him. He started slowly, but then caught a long TD to start the second half and finished 10/8/129/1. The money I saved from fading JT was spent on paying up for Justin Jefferson for the Vikes. With Dalvin out and the Vikings making a more concerted effort to get JJ more touches, it was the perfect spot to pay up and he paid off in a big way. He did not garner much ownership, but ended up going for 14/11/182/1 for a monster performance, which exceed Taylor.

Finally, I had the funds to pay for Diontae Johnson on DK and Hunter Renfrow on FD. Diontae looked like he was going to be a bust in the first half, especially after he dropped an easy, 35 yard TD pass that went right off his hands. I think he one catch at halftime. I rage screamed into my couch cushion when he dropped the TD and was so distraught that I went upstairs and made myself a pathetic plate of nachos in the microwave, channeling my inner Will Ferrell from Step Brothers.  When I returned to the couch, the afternoon turned around quickly as Diontae played like a warrior in the second half with over 100 receiving yards and 2 TDs. This was extremely fortunate as my last call on DK came down to whether or not I wanted to play Chris Godwin or Diontae. Given that Diontae was consistently seeing double digit targets and was the indisputable WR1 for the Steelers, I gave him the edge over Godwin as the Bucs have plenty of weapons through the air and never have to rely on one specific guy to carry their offense. Of course, Godwin ended up being about 60-70% owned on DK versus 6-10% for Diontae so when Godwin caught 15 passes for over 140 yards in a noon kickoff game, I was not feeling great about my chances early on. It was an incredible relief to see Diontae actually pass Godwin for fantasy points. Renfrow continues to be the ‘go to’ guy for the Raiders and that continued with Darren Waller missing another game. The Raiders are beat up at WR so as long as Waller remains sidelined, he should continue to rack up a lot of high percentage targets.

At TE, I locked in Foster Moreau on both sites. He played well in relief of Waller against the Eagles in October so I had a lot of confidence that he would do well. Unfortunately, he was barely a part of the game plan and caught just one pass for 34 yards. I was not too bothered as he was 80%+ owned in cash games last week. The salary cap relief and extreme chalky nature of the play made him an easy one to plug in and move on. If we could agree as a community of which TE to play each week and then have every one stick to it to neutralize the importance of the position, I would sign up for that any time. On defense, I wanted to clear enough cap to pay for the Dolphins at home against the Giants. with Mike Glennon at QB for the Giants and a rash of injuries at WR, I figured the Dolphins would hold them to just a few points, get a couple of sacks and turnovers and maybe even a defensive score. While they did not get the defensive TD, 9 fantasy points for a defense is fine.

 

DraftKings					FanDuel
Gardner Minshew	4000	18.78			Tom Brady	8100	29.62
Antonio Gibson	5700	22.1			Leonard Fournette	7700	18.7
Sony Michel	4300	24.9			Sony Michel	5300	20.4
Cooper Kupp	9000	29.9			Cooper Kupp	9000	22.6
Justin Jefferson	8200	38.6			Justin Jefferson	8000	30.1
Diontae Johnson	6800	33.5			Hunter Renfrow	6400	14.7
Foster Moreau	2700	4.4			Foster Moreau	5000	3.9
Eli Mitchell	6000	17.4			Antonio Gibson	6200	19.6
Dolphins	3300	9			Dolphins	4000	9
	50000	198.58				59700	168.62

 

To read the entire article, become a premium member of Football Insider Edge by clicking here, or on the JOIN NOW button on the homepage