The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 14

Things got back on track in a big way for Week 13. We had a huge week for our PGA picks. Our MMA optimal ended up being the nuts and we had about 15 people win over $1700 a piece for a mere $18 entry in the big GPP and NFL closed things out strong with a resounding win where there was never a doubt about making it into the winner’s circle for the week. Even the Vikings found a way to win, though it was ugly. It was about as good of a week as we possibly could have hoped for as we head towards the last quarter of the season. I spent a lot of hours staring into the abyss on Saturday night trying to fashion the perfect cash lineup and with just one exception, things worked out really well.

Before I dive in too deep, I will likely keep the column a little shorter than usual this week. I had LASIK surgery on my eyes on Thursday afternoon so my eyes are still healing up and a little sensitive to staring at my computer screen for too lengthy of a period of time. I am so impressed by what they are able to do with this technology after just a couple of decades of performing this procedure. For all of you that are nervous about it, so far, I would highly recommend it. You are in the operating room for maybe a little longer than five minutes. Everything is numbed up so you do not feel a thing and the actual time spent working on your eyes in total is maybe 3 minutes. The doctor takes a look at your eyes immediately after the procedure, you have someone give you a ride home and then go to sleep for about 4 hours. To be fair, your eyes definitely feel a little bit of a burn on the ride home and until you fall asleep, but by the time you wake up, it starts to improve. They give you a regimen of eye drops to use in the weeks that follow and by the time you go back for your checkup the next morning, your vision starts to clear up very quickly. While my eyes still have a little bit of soreness, they seem to be healing up well and my vision is greatly improved.

In recapping my lineup for last week, there were a few pieces that were in place for me going into my build and just a couple of pieces to move around. Dalvin Cook was the main player I knew that I was going to build around all throughout the week. The Jaguars have one of the worst defenses in the league and with Alexander Mattison out, along with a likely positive game script for Cook, I thought it likely that he would see 30 touches again, which he exceeded. It ended up being tougher sledding than I had envisioned, but by OT, Cook made it over 100 yards and got us pretty close to a 3x effort, which was a nice relief.

From Cook, I needed to figure out how to make the rest of my team stay under the salary cap. We had a good situation with the Titans as Jonnu Smith was out which presented us with a minimum salary player in Anthony Firkser, a solid pass catching TE. It looked like he might end up being a bust through most of the game, but managed to grab a few late passes in garbage time to post respectable numbers. Not Darren Waller numbers, but Firkser was overwhelmingly the chalk play of the week so even a complete whiff would not have hurt us too badly, especially with the salary saved.

Wide Receiver presented a dilemma for me. I really liked Bradin Cooks and Keke Coutee and for a time considered playing both, which given their roles in the offense and expected use, would not have been too big of a deal as I thought there was plenty of room to hit value. In the end, I thought Coutee was more of a sure thing at his price and had a very low hurdle to get over to hit value. I played around with using Cooks and if I did that, I would have the funds to pay up for the Seattle defense. However, in looking at it closer, I had the option of paying down to the Jets and then jumping all the way up to Justin Jefferson for the Vikes. Jefferson is already an elite talent in his first year in the league and the Jags have been allowing a WR to go over 100 yards just about every week for the last couple of months. I thought there was a good chance that the Jags would keep it close so that the Vikings would be throwing it all four quarters and sure enough, it worked out perfectly as JJ crushed the Jags in the second half and ended the game with over 100 yards and a TD. I knew that this pivot might be a little risky as JJ would not likely be heavily owned since Cook would be so popular, but JJ is playing so well right now and with Thielen back, a depleted Jags secondary and plenty of one on one matchups, it just felt like a great match up and at $6900, he still seemed way too cheap. The Jets were a complete punt play, but managed five points, which at min salary is an acceptable output. It would have been six points until Greg Williams dialed up one of the dumber blitzes I have ever seen.

At QB, I was locked onto Aaron Rodgers all week. He’s been playing elite level football, has one of the best receivers in the game to throw to and was in a nice spot against the Eagles. $6800 felt about $700 too cheap for Rodgers and he performed well as expected. The only frustration was that he hit 290 yards early in the fourth quarter but then stalled out the last couple of drives befor Aaron Jones broke loose on a big run to put the game away.

The other RB that I knew I wanted to play was Austin Ekeler. After seeing 16 targets go his direction the prior week and 30 total opportunities, he seemed like a slam dunk for his price against a New England defense that is not as good as previous years. Unfortunately, the wheels completely fell off the wagon for the Chargers and they got destroyed by the Pats. It was the second week in a row that the Pats shut down an offense that has produced a good amount of offense this season. Ekeler had plenty of owners last week so it was not a killer for us and he did catch enough passes to keep it from being a complete washout, but it was still a disappointment.

My other receiver was always going to be either Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp. I thought they both had a great matchup and would play well, but the Cards have been especially bad against slot receivers this year so I really wanted to work Kupp into the mix. It worked out fine and Woods outscored Kupp, but only by three points so I was happy it did not end up being a situation where Woods crushed him and left me second guessing my research.

Finally, the last RB slot had to be filled and that presented the most thought for me. With the build I had up to that point, I no longer had the dollars to afford Myles Gaskin, who I liked for the week in his return for the Dolphins. That left me with either David Montgomery or Devontae Booker. I usually try to stay away from playing RBs against my defense so that was strike one against Booker. I also was not entirely convinced the Booker would play well as the Jets are tough against the run and I was also unsure of what his role would be for the Raiders in starting in place of Josh Jacobs. This left me with David Montgomery and I was okay with that. He’s played better of late, is doing more with his touches and the Lions are terrible against running backs so although I did not want to chase his previous performance against the Packers, it seemed like another strong spot for him to play well. He played great and found the end zone twice while Booker faltered as the Raiders got most of their offense on the arm of Derek Carr. It rounded out a really strong roster for the week. Now the goal is to try to finally get going on a nice winning streak to take us to the end of the season!

 

Week 13 Team
Aaron Rodgers	6800	23.5
Dalvin Cook	9500	26.9
David Montgomery	5500	27.1
Justin Jefferson	6900	30.3
Cooper Kupp	6100	15.3
Keke Coutee	3500	25.1
Anthony Firkser	2500	10.1
Austin Ekeler	7100	10.8
Jets	2100	5
	50000	174.1

 

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QB	DK	50000	FD	60000
Patrick Mahomes	8100	16.2%	8900	14.8%
Russell Wilson	7900	15.8%	9000	15.0%
Aaron Rodgers	7500	15.0%	9100	15.2%
Tom Brady	6900	13.8%	7800	13.0%
Justin Herbert	6800	13.6%	8300	13.8%

 

Russell Wilson – The MVP campaign came crashing to a halt for Russ over the last month and last week was a low point for the Seahawks in losing at home to the resurgent New York Giants. I am not exactly sure why the offense is sputtering, but perhaps teams have now made the decision to try to do everything to take away DK Metcalf as his numbers have waned outside of the Philadelphia game of late. Whatever problems that he’s had should be in the past this week with a ‘get right’ opponent in the New York Jets coming to town. The Jets have to be feeling demoralized this week after a crushing loss to the Raiders last week. I cannot remember the last time a coach was fired over one specific bad call prior to Gregg Williams, but then again, I am amazed at how teams can continue to employ this guy year after year. Whatever the case, the Jets have to feel like last week was the last real shot they had to win a game this season and will likely be feeling the hangover from last Sunday as well as the resulting tumult from this week. They were already ranked last in pass defense, but since they do stop the run, this looks like the perfect spot for Russ to put up some massive fantasy numbers to help get the Hawks back on track. If they made Derek Carr look like an All-Pro, Russ should be able to hang 30 DK points on the board for us this week.

Aaron Rodgers – As stated above, the only disappointment about last week with Rodgers was that he somehow could not find those last ten yards in the 4th quarter to get the 300 yard bonus. Beyond that, he again played a fantastic game as he continues to be at or near the top of the league in efficiency year after year. This week, he gets to go indoors to Detroit for a critical game against a Lions team that suddenly has some life to them after finally getting rid of the ridiculous, ear pencil wearing, Matt Patricia. For further reference on coaches that routinely wear a pencil behind their ear, see Mike Tice. The Lions rank last in the league in total defense and 29th against the pass. Our only issue here is if Aaron Jones take over the game like he did in Week 2 when he put up slate smashing numbers. While that is possible, the Packers tend to stick to their game plan. They also throw the ball more often at the goal line than any other team in recent memory. The price got bumped up to fair value this week, but Rodgers is a near lock for a 25 point floor.

Tom Brady – I think Tom Brady is going to smash the Vikings this week. The Vikings secondary is young and inexperienced and they will again be starting two rookie corners. To make matters worse, their best defensive player and one of the elites of the league, linebacker Eric Kendricks is out again this week which will leave the middle of the field wide open for Brady to exploit. The only teams that have given the Bucs are real challenge this season are teams that can really put pressure on Brady up front. The Vikings do not pressure the QB at all as they have some of the lowest pressure and sack rates in the league. Given the time to do some damage, Brady should pick this team apart all afternoon.

Justin Herbert – Wipe away your memories of Herbert against the Patriots. It was downright ugly, but does not erase the rest of a very strong rookie season where he’s exceeded expectations. I have to give him a little bit of a break as Bill Belichik is good at throwing confusing looks on defense at young players to throw them off balance. Whatever the case may be, he should be able to get back on track this week at home against the Falcons. The Falcons are tough at stonewalling the run (6th in the league), but only 19th against the pass. Before last week, Herbert’s worst outing was 19.7 DK points so the floor has been high for him all year and I think he bounces back well against the Falcons.

 

RB	DK	50000	FD	60000
Derrick Henry	8700	17.4%	9600	16.0%
Aaron Jones	7600	15.2%	8700	14.5%
James Robinson	7500	15.0%	8000	13.3%
Austin Ekeler	7000	14.0%	7500	12.5%
David Montgomery	6500	13.0%	6600	11.0%
Ronald Jones	6100	12.2%	6300	10.5%
JD McKissic	4900	9.8%	5300	8.8%

 

Derrick Henry – Henry wrecked us in this spot early in the season as he did nothing the first time around against the Jags. However, if there is one thing that we know about Henry, it is that he saves his best football for December and January each season once opposing teams are worn down and cannot handle four quarters of his battering running style. Take a look at his stat line against the Jags in the two most recent late season games. In December of 2018, he carried the ball 17 times for 238 yards and 4 TDs. In late 2019, he went for 19/152/2. Do you want to miss out on numbers like that against the 23rd ranked rush defense in the league with a game script that looks to be extremely favorable?

David Montgomery – Montgomery worked out well for us last week against Detroit, getting 17 carries and 4 catches for 111 total yards and 2 TDs. I never thought a David Montgomery chalk week would work out in our favor, but it is 2020 so anything can happen this year. For all the Montgomery hatred, he’s been an effective player this season even if his numbers do not jump off the page. With Tareek Cohen getting injured, he’s been decent in catching passes out of the backfield. He again has a favorable matchup this week at home against the Texans who rank 26th against the run and 24th against pass catching RBs. The only issue here is that his price is up $1000 and he’s ceding carries to Cordarelle Patterson so it’s not as easy of a play this week.

Austin Ekeler – The Chargers were terrible last week, but I am going to wipe that game away. We should get back to seeing heavy volume again this week for Ekeler who had 30 opportunities the prior week in his return against the Bills. He did have nine targets against the Pats, but only four were converted to catches so it was a rare week of inefficiency for him. If I told you he was going to get nine targets, you would have been thrilled. Given that the Falcons are solid at stuffing the run game, I expect the Chargers to work the edges in the passing game which should equate to another week where Ekeler sees close to ten targets. If he’s even slightly more efficient than last week, he should give us an output of what we have become accustomed to over the last couple of seasons.

JD McKissic – There is not a lot to work with for cheap RBs this week, but McKissic stands out in a game where Antonio Gibson in sidelined with an injury. McKissic does not get many carries, but he’s had double digit targets in three of his last five games. Those targets should all remain his and if he picks up an extra 5-7 carries out of the backfield, it’s possible he may see 20 opportunities this week. The 49ers are not an easy match up, but volume alone should allow him to easily hit value at his price.

 

WR	DK	50000	FD	60000
Davante Adams	9300	18.6%	9600	16.0%
Tyreek Hill	8500	17.0%	9000	15.0%
DK Metcalf	8400	16.8%	8600	14.3%
Keenan Allen	7700	15.4%	8500	14.2%
Allen Robinson	6800	13.6%	7000	11.7%
Robby Anderson	6200	12.4%	6500	10.8%
Curtis Samuel	5200	10.4%	5900	9.8%
Tim Patrick	4200	8.4%	5400	9.0%
Breshad Perriman	3900	7.8%	5800	9.7%

 

Davante Adams – In eight games since returning from an injury, Adams has been targeted 90 times, caught 67 passes for 837 yards and 11 TDs. He’s indoors at Detroit this week against the 29th ranked team in the league against the pass and with CB Jeff Okudah out, he’ll see either Amani Oruwariye or Darryle Roberts all day which should lead to another double digit target day. The Lions played with some fire against Chicago last week and are still not dead from making the playoffs if they were to win out. They should give Green Bay a good battle so Adams should be involved all day.

Tyreek Hill – Tyreek had 14.8 DK points last week, but it probably should’ve been 40. KC somehow did not challenge an obvious TD where Hill was unaware that the ball never hit the ground that took back a 50 yards TD. In the second half, another long TD was called back due to a penalty. Hill is usually big play dependent, but has been a volume monster of late, averaging 12 targets per game over his last six starts, catching 49 balls for 695 yards and 9 TDs. Miami is weakest in the slot where Hill lines up most often and Nik Needham will have his hands full trying to contain him.

DK Metcalf – The Jets come staggering into Seattle with a weak, inexperienced secondary that got lit up by the Raiders last week. Tyler Lockett also has a great matchup this week and could certainly have a big day, but he’s become so boom or bust that he’s been reduced to a GPP only option. DK has seen tough coverage in recent weeks with Jaylen Ramsey and James Bradberry putting the clamps on him. This has brought his fantasy numbers down from the stratosphere and has most owners looking at Adams this week. DK will be up against the other Lamar Jackson this week and I have a feeling that there will be an eruption of production again from him this week against the Jets and their funnel defense.

Robby Anderson/Curtis Samuel – DJ Moore is on the COVID list this week and with Christian McCaffrey still out, that pushes a lot more targets towards Anderson and Samuel. I prefer Samuel this week as he’s cheaper than Anderson by $900 and the Panthers also like to get him involved in the run game when CMC is out. With Denver down its top two CBs, this is great chance for one or both of these guys to step up for a big day.

Tim Patrick – Most of the talk will likely be on which Jets WR to use, but I really like Patrick in this spot against the Panthers who rank 26th against the pass this year. Looking at his numbers, he’s been more of a #1 WR for the Broncos than 1st round pick, Jerry Jeudy. If we subtract out the joke of a game that was Saints/Broncos (practice squad WR at QB for Denver) in the previous eight games, he’s seen 50 targets, caught 34 passes for 554 yards and 5 TDs, which includes three 100+ yard games. In those eight games, he’s only been held under 10 points one time giving him a solid floor for his price.

Breshad Perriman – The Jets are down Denzel Mims this week and could be without Jamison Crowder as well. With limited options at WR, Perriman could be in line for a lot of work against a Seahawks secondary that has struggled all season and ranks 27th against the pass. At only $3900, he opens up a lot of options to build your roster when trying to include the top players on the slate. He was a non-factor last week against the Raiders, but prior to that, had double digit fantasy points in four of five games including a 30 point outburst against the Patriots. If Crowder is out, Braxton Berrios also becomes playable at the minimum salary this week. I’ll have a further update as the DNP notifications start to roll out later tonight and early tomorrow.

 

TE	DK	50000	FD	60000
Travis Kelce	7400	14.8%	8200	13.7%
Rob Gronkowski	4800	9.6%	6200	10.3%
Robert Tonyan	4200	8.4%	5900	9.8%
Jordan Reed	3500	7.0%	5000	8.3%
Logan Thomas	3300	6.6%	5200	8.7%

 

Travis Kelce – Kelce is one of the most dominant pass catchers in the league. You can include him among the elite receivers as he ranks second in the NFL in receiving yards, but his salary never reaches much higher than where it is this week. He’s dependable for double digit targets and is a favorite for Mahomes in the red zone. With so few other dependable players at this position, he is about the only one who week to week can be depended on to produce WR1 type of numbers. The Dolphins are decent in defending against the TE this year, but the numbers mean very little as Kelce is in a class by himself right now.

Rob Gronkowski – I am not hearing many people talk about Gronk this week which has me quietly excited for his matchup against the Vikings. I cannot overstate how big the loss of Eric Kendricks is to this Viking defense. His play this year to keep this unit competitive is something to marvel at given the loss of personnel due to injuries and free agency. The athletic plays he’s made in defending the pass this year have been off the charts amazing. When he missed the game against the Jags last week, Mike Glennon peppered his TEs all day. He targeted them 12 times and they caught ten passes for 86 yards. They did this with the likes of Tyler Eifert and James O’Shaugnessy. This week, Gronk will get to take advantage of the hole in the middle of the field. In his last seven games, the only two teams that held him under 13.1 DK points were the Saints and Rams, two very tough teams against the TE this year. Gronk has been averaging six targets per game in those seven games, but I think he will be in for a heavy workload against the Vikings this week without their top defensive player. Cameron Brate is now also listed as questionable with an illness. If Brate is out, Gronk becomes an amazing value play this week.

Logan Thomas – With Alex Smith under center, Thomas is a new player in terms of fantasy output. He was the best player on offense for Washington on Monday night against the top team in the league against the TE so I am not going to hesitate to go back to him again this week against the 49ers. As pricing came out before his big effort, you can still get him at a nice discount this week so if you are looking to roster both Adams and Henry, you’ll likely need to use Thomas to make it work for salary cap space.

 

DEF	DK	50000	FD	60000
Saints	3800	7.6%	4900	8.2%
Seahawks	3000	6.0%	5000	8.3%
Washington	2800	5.6%	3900	6.5%
Cowboys	2400	4.8%	3500	5.8%
Jets	2100	4.2%	3000	5.0%

 

Saints – Great matchup this week for the Saints against the Eagles where Jalen Hurts will make his NFL debut as a starter. The Saints have been the best defensive team in the league over the last month, scoring double digit fantasy points in four of its past five games. The Eagles come in beat up as usual with both starting tackles in Lane Johnson and Jason Peters on IR. This will create all sorts of problems for Hurts. Once the Saints get ahead in this game, it means even more dropbacks for the rookie QB which should lead to plenty of sacks and turnovers for the Saints.

Seahawks – The Seahawks were on their way to a big game against the Giants, but missed a defensive TD by a few inches and then gave up a long run to Wayne Gallman that led to a short TD. This week, they get the beleaguered Jets at home who are missing Denzel Mims and possibly also Jamison Crowder and Frank Gore. That leaves an already thin team with few options on offense against a Seahawks team that has been steadily improving in rushing the passer over the last month.

Cowboys – I am likely to either punt down to the Cowboys or Jets this week. The Cowboys face one of the worst offensive lines in the league in Cincinnati. Aldon Smith, DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory should be able to pressure Brandon Allen into making mistakes. In two games, Allen has been sacked 7 times and thrown two INTs. The Bengals have been impotent on offense since losing Joe Burrow and I do not see that changing this week making the Cowboys a fantastic value play on defense.

Jets – If I need the cap space, I will drop down to the Jets. They defense is not great, but they do stop the run well and have nine sacks and five turnovers over the last three weeks. If they can avoid the big negative point bonus that kicks in at 35 points, they should be able to salvage a couple of points and could provide us with that extra bit of cap space required to be able to pay up for one of the elite names on the board.

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