The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 15

And we have ourselves a winning streak! It’s been an interesting and somewhat profitable season so far, but there has been a lot of work from week of week to get there. I know some of you have had more downs than ups this year, but there are so many reasons to be positive this season. If you have been involved in our Slack chat at all this season, you’ve seen that there are some folks that have been crushing it again this year, especially in the showdown contests. This past week, long time loyal member, Luke Manners had the nuts in the Bills/Steelers game and took down a big GPP for over $17k in winnings. He’s been on a tear all season and has hit multiple five figure paydays just in the past few weeks. He’s not a high roller player either. Most of his entries this year are in the $200-300 range for Showdown slates and I do not think I have seen him play more than 20 lineups at a time so the formula is out there for success and we’ve had plenty of big hits again this season to show for it.

In cash games, I go to war every week of this virus trying to grind out any little edge that I can find. I love when we get late into the season and beyond the bye weeks when the player pool starts to open up. By this point in the season, we have a lot of incredible data to work with and it is much easier to spot the best matchups than it is early in the year when we have only seen certain players in action for a couple of weeks and try to extrapolate their performance from those games plus whatever we observed from last year. By this point, we know who is tough up front rushing the passer. We know which corners can be considered ‘lockdown’ and which ones have lost a step or two from previous years. We know the schemes teams run on offense and defense and can script out the games remarkably well, especially with all of the games taking place on mostly neutral fields, though there are a few teams that get a nice bump in energy from having 10-20k fans in the stands versus other states that will not allow anyone in the stadium.

Week 14 had the usual late season surprises that we have come to expect all year with late injuries and COVID cases throwing everything up in the air. I was slow to report some of those late changes for which I apologize. My eyes were still recovering on Sunday so I slept in a little later than normal to give them some rest after my surgery last week. After a week, I can tell you that I would 100% endorse LASIK for anyone that has ever even considered it. Being able to sit and read again and do my work without having an annoying pair of glasses rubbing against my face was worth every penny. In a year where any little improvement in health feels like a gift, this is one that I am really thankful for going into 2021, especially as it should only help me to keep my focus in getting my columns done faster throughout the year! Maybe…

You should not be too disappointed about the changes that I made to my lineup late on Sunday morning before kickoff. Neither one paid off at all and actually cost me a few points. The first move that I made was in moving up from Tim Patrick at WR to Keke Coutee. When Brandin Cooks was announced as being out against the Bears, that left Coutee in a great spot for big volume. I knew he was dealing with his own injury, but still figured 8-10 targets seemed reasonable given how little the Texans had left at receiver and what we had seen Coutee do the previous week in an upgraded role. Both Coutee and Patrick found the end zone, but Coutee was a non-factor and only saw three targets, which was disappointing. Patrick ended up with about 2 more DK points than Coutee so it was not a huge swing either way.

In order to get up to Coutee at WR, I needed to free up some salary cap space in another spot. I was already paying down at RB for JD McKissic, but when news spread that Myles Bokin was out for the Dolphins and that DeAndre Washington was likely to get the bulk of the work, I decided to drop down for him. I figured Washington would out touch McKissic as JD would share some touches with Peyton Barber and that ended up being correct, but only by two touches overall. McKissic ended up with 10.6 points vs 7.2 for Washington, so again, not a huge miss, but at the end of Sunday, every point counts and I was very close to the cash line all the way to the end of the last game between Washington and the 49ers.

The player that I really knew I had to get into my lineup last week was Derrick Henry. Everything I did revolved around making sure I was able to get him onto my roster. The two players that I really wanted to find room for were Henry and Davante Adams, both of whom had extremely favorable match ups and great potential game scripts to have slate breaking performances. Fitting both was definitely going to be a challenge with Adams pricing up over $9k. I played around with an Adams/Henry lineup, but just could not get comfortable with how they were coming together.

In the end, I wanted to get some exposure to Adams so I ended up using Aaron Rodgers as my QB. He was my top rated QB last week so it was not a tough decision. Rodgers has been playing his usual elite level football all season and the Lions are toothless on defense this year. When you factor in the benefit of playing indoors in December, it made the choice easy. It played out almost exactly as I would have expected with the Lions keeping the game close throughout and the Packers working primarily through the air to score points. While Aaron Jones may be a very talented RB, the Packers still seem committed to a pass first attack, especially in the red zone and Jamal Williams still siphons off a lot of touches in the run game so I was not too concerned that Rodgers would be grinding out the clock. Once again, Rodgers came up just a few yards short of 300 passing years, but his three passing TDs and one rushing were exactly what I needed at QB and while Adams did have a great day, it was not a 40 point monster performance, so I was able to fade him without consequences this time around.

The easy plug and play defense of the week did extremely well for me as the Cowboys managed to get a rare defensive TD against the Bengals and mostly shut down the offense all day. Brandon Allen is not a worthy NFL QB and the offensive line of the Bengals continues to be one of the worst in the NFL Outside of paying up for the Saints against a QB-less Broncos team, saving funds at defense has worked really well for most of the season. The key is to look for a really good unit that is underpriced due to a perceived tough matchup, or to pick a mediocre team that is going against a particularly bad offense.

Going back to receiver, I knew I was going to play either Robby Anderson or Curtis Samuel for the Panthers. With so many injuries, the Panthers were down to only two pass catchers that I felt really good about. I leaned towards Samuel all week for the cap space savings over Anderson and also his usage in the run game, especially with CMC out. While he started off slowly, his got involved in the second half as the game turned into a shootout and he posted 16 DK points, which was more than adequate for his price, though he did see some shots in the red zone that really could have helped if he had found paydirt.

I made a stand at the TE position and of course it did not work out at all. All week, I felt like the Bucs would burn the Vikings in the middle of the field with Eric Kendricks out. If Bruce Arians and Tom Brady watched a minute of film from the Vikes/Jags game the previous week, they would have seen the Jags crushing the Vikings for short passes to the TE all day. With Cameron Brate feeling a little ill I thought that was the extra bump Gronk needed to continue what has been a highly productive stretch over the last couple of months. Instead, he saw only two targets all afternoon. Fortunately, both were in the end zone and he was able to bring one in for a TD, but was shutout the rest of the day….or ignored to use a better term. It was disappointing since I could have just paid down for Logan Thomas at $3300 and gotten more targets and a couple of more points. My move here was probably a little questionable. I knew Thomas would be fairly chalky and I knew Gronk would be owned by almost nobody so I was subjecting myself to some extra risk while also spending and extra $1500. Sometimes going with my gut feels like the right play, but in this case, sticking to the process and focusing on value would have been the superior move.

At flex, I wanted to play DK Metcalf against the Jets. Top WRs have crushed the Jets this season and I figured DK would stay heavily involved so long as the game did not turn into a blowout. The game actually played out about the way I thought it would. The Jets really should have been able to hold their ground late into the game. They had four deep opportunities to score in the first half and came away with only three points. The kicker missed three straight field goals so rather than the game being competitive at the half, the Jets were totally deflated and got blown away by the end of the 3rd quarter at which time, the Seahawks benched their starters on offense. The other factor that hurt me was that DK caught a pass for 14 yards on the first play, ran over a Jet defender, but then limped off to the sidelines for the rest of the drive which resulted in his backup catching a TD pass. I am not sure how much his injury limited him, but it did slow him up early enough to probably take away some early key targets. He still scored a TD and caught six passes for 61 yards, but I really envisioned a ten catch day for over 100 yards so he was not up to Tyreek Hill or Adams for the week, though I am fine with the play, even if he was not very heavily owned.

The last player on the roster was my punt play for the week. After avoiding Jet WRs like the plague over the last couple of months, I finally decided to dip my toe into that poisonous pool to see if I could get value just one time. At $3900, Breshad Perriman did not need to do a lot to earn his keep for my team, but even that low hurdle was unattainable for him. He did get open in the red zone once on a route where he could have scored, but Sam Darnold underthrew the pass and it got knocked away. Even in garbage time, the Jets could not move the ball against a terrible pass defense. I hate trying to fit players like that into my lineup and rarely do it during the season, but with several stars really standing out in my research last week, it seemed unavoidable as I needed nearly every last dollar to make my roster work.

In the end, I made it to the cash window. I did start to get nervous late in the day as Seattle shut it down early, the Jets could not score and Davante caught a deep ball to get over 100 yards late against Detroit that left me hanging on by a thread. It was one of those rare Sunday slates with six late games so there were a lot of players to sweat towards the end, but Green Bay put the brakes on, the Chargers did not get the ball to Ekeler much on the last couple of drives and Washington went into clock killing mode. I breathed a big sigh of relief as the time mercifully ran out in the last game. I made a few small mistakes for the week and it nearly cost me, but I survived and will put the lessons to work for Week 15 and the last three weeks of the regular season.

 

Week 14 Team
Aaron Rodgers	7500	30.9
Derrick Henry	8700	39.2
DeAndre Washington	4000	7.2
Curtis Samuel	5200	16
Breshad Perriman	3900	5.6
Keke Coutee	5000	10.4
Rob Gronkowski	4800	7.2
DK Metcalf	8400	18.1
Cowboys	2400	18
	49900	152.6

 

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QB	DK	50000	FD	60000
Patrick Mahomes	7900	15.8%	8900	14.8%
Lamar Jackson	7500	15.0%	8200	13.7%
Kyler Murray	7000	14.0%	8000	13.3%
Deshaun Watson	6800	13.6%	8100	13.5%
Jalen Hurts	5900	11.8%	6900	11.5%

 

Patrick Mahomes – The best QB in the NFL gets a December game indoors and even if the Saints do have one of the better defensive units in the NFL, there really is not a team that can shutdown Mahomes and with both teams expected to put up plenty of points, this should be a big day for the passing game of the Chiefs, especially with how tough the Saints have been against the run all year. Outside of a bad weather game in Denver, Mahomes has been bust proof this season and that should continue with so much on the line against the Saints.

Lamar Jackson – Lamar made a heroic return on 4th down against the Browns on Monday night, capping off one of the best games of his career. He has a chance to repeat that effort this week against the 30th ranked defense in the league. As of now, I am hearing that the Ravens are expecting to have all of their receivers on the COVID list ready to go by Sunday which would be a benefit in that the Jags rank 2nd to last in the league in pass defense and have had a WR go over 100 yards against them in nine straight games. The Ravens are beat up in the secondary and Gardner Minshew should be able to keep this game competitive long enough for Jackson to shred the defense. The only problem we could have is if the Ravens run the ball near the goal line which could cap some of his upside.

Kyler Murray – The last few weeks have not been the best for Murray, but he did have to fight through shoulder pain and has had some tough matchups to contend with. The advantage here is that his salary has fallen back down to 7k putting him squarely in the value range again back home against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are beat up in the secondary having lost Rodney Mcleod and Avonte Maddox to IR and Darius Slay is questionable this week. This is bad news for a team that only ranked 22nd against the pass to begin with. UPDATE – With Darius Slay now ruled out, upgrade Murray in a big way as the Eagles now have no way of covering DeAndre Hopkins who should have an absolutely monster day.

Jalen Hurts – There are not a lot of punt plays that I looked at this week, but Hurts fits the bill after rushing for over 100 yards last week in guiding the Eagles to an impressive win against the Saints. As Hurts gets more comfortable under center, he should only improve. If the Eagles are going to have him running this often, he becomes a great value for cash games as his floor is high even if he does not pass for a lot of yards.

 

RB	DK	50000	FD	60000
Derrick Henry	9500	19.0%	10200	17.0%
Alvin Kamara	7400	14.8%	7800	13.0%
Jonathan Taylor	7200	14.4%	7400	12.3%
Cam Akers	6600	13.2%	6700	11.2%
Kenyan Drake	5500	11.0%	6600	11.0%
Leonard Fournette	4500	9.0%	5500	9.2%

UPDATE – ADD TONY POLLARD TO THE PLAYER POOL WITH ZEKE OUT. POLLARD IS A THREE DOWN BACK THAT CAN RUN AND CATCH THE BALL. IT’S NOT AN EASY MATCHUP AGAINST THE 49ERS, BUT VOLUME IS KING AND HE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF THAT AT HOME.

Derrick Henry – Henry was the big play that I needed to get over the top last Sunday and he broke another slate by rushing for over 200 yards and two TDs. The matchup is just as good this week at home against the worst defense in the NFL. It’s another great script for Henry as the Titans are likely to be well ahead meaning that they will rely on the run game to close things out in the second half. If it is December, Henry has to be considered, even at these crazy prices. With 30+ point DK games being a regular occurrence late in the season for Henry, if you can find value in other spots, he’s a lock for a big day.

Alvin Kamara – I likely would have passed on Kamara if Taysom Hill were starting this week, but with Drew Brees back under center and Michael Thomas sidelined with an injury, Kamara likely becomes a must play at his price. The Chiefs rank 30th in the NFL against the run and 31st against pass catching RBs. With the Chiefs expected to put up plenty of points, Brees is going to target Kamara at least ten times and I see him having 20+ touches this week. Once again, Kamara has 30+ point upside, but it is not reflected in his price.

Jonathan Taylor – We are finally seeing the Jonathan Taylor that I remember tearing apart my Minnesota Gophers the last few years. He’s had over 130 total yards the last two weeks and scored three TDs. While the Colts do have a talented group of backs, the explosion of Taylor should keep him in the lead for weeks to come. He’s taking on a Texans team this week that he tore up two weeks ago that ranks 29th in the league against the run, While his salary has taken a big leap, the matchup is strong and it feels like another 100 yard rushing performance incoming.

Cam Akers – I feel like I have to write up Akers this week with his emergence over the last two games. He’s had 53 touches the last two games and was especially impressive against the Patriots last Thursday night. The Rams have found their lead back, but the matchup this week is not necessarily what it seems. The Jets rank last in the league in pass defense, but are 8th in the league against the run. Akers has just three catches the last two weeks and only six on the season. While I do think he will have plenty of touches this week, he will likely need to score a TD to hit value.

Leonard Fournette – It looks like Fournette will be the value back of the week for the Bucs with Ronald Jones hitting the COVID list. Atlanta is tough against the run, but Fournette should catch 4-5 passes giving him a great floor for the price. He’ll likely be the goal line back as well so 15 DK points seems like a very reasonable floor unless Bruce Arians throws us a curveball and works Shady McCoy into the game more than expected. The Bucs are a 6 point favorite so Fournette should get plenty of late game carries to salt the victory away.

 

WR	DK	50000	FD	60000
Tyreek Hill	8800	17.6%	9300	15.5%
DeAndre Hopkins	7900	15.8%	8600	14.3%
AJ Brown	7600	15.2%	8300	13.8%
Allen Robinson	7400	14.8%	7300	12.2%
Terry McLaurin	6600	13.2%	6900	11.5%
Brandon Aiyuk	6300	12.6%	6900	11.5%
TY Hilton	5500	11.0%	6800	11.3%
Russell Gage	4700	9.4%	5700	9.5%
Emmanual Sanders	4200	8.4%	5500	9.2%
Kendrick Bourne	4100	8.2%	4800	8.0%

UPDATE – ADD LYNN BOWDEN JR TO THE PLAYER POOL WITH PARKER, GRANT AND GESICKI ALL OUT FOR THE DOLPHINS. AT 3600, BOWDEN NOW BECOMES THE WR1 FOR THE DOLPHINS AND THE PATS TEND TO STRUGGLE IN COVERING SLOT WRS.

Tyreek Hill – Hill touched the ball just four times last week in Miami, but that was all it took for him to score 26.1 DK points. He’s good for 1-2 explosive plays per week and with him lining up in the slot, he should be in line for another big week against slot corner Chauncey Gardner-Johnson or Marshon Lattimore. While the Saints rank well on defense this year, they’ve piled up the numbers over the last month mostly against the bottom of the league. This game will be a shootout and the fact that it is played indoors, should only enhance the explosiveness of Hill who has been averaging over 10 targets per game in his last seven starts.

AJ Brown – Detroit ranks at the bottom of the NFL in total defense and while they have been bad against RBs, they’ve been even worse against receivers. Though he is not the target machine that other big name receivers are, he makes the most of them, averaging over 16 yards per reception and has nine TDs. The Titans have a team total of 31.5 points so as long as it is not entirely the Derrick Henry show, Brown has a good shot at 20+ DK points.

Terry McLaurin – McLaurin has had a quiet few weeks with Alex Smith checking the ball down. He’s also had some tougher matchups against the 49ers and Steelers. Things should change this week now that Dwayne Haskins is back and he’s at home against the 25th ranked pass defense in the league with the Seahawks coming to town. Prior to Smith taking over, McLaurin was averaging 10 targets per game. With Antonio Gibson out another week and strong matchup, there is a good chance he sees a return to the types of numbers he put up early in the year.

Brandon Aiyuk – I do not see a way around playing Aiyuk this week. He’s underpriced, is up against a poor secondary and the 49ers are missing Deebo Samuel. Even before the Samuel injury, Aiyuk was putting up big numbers. In his last five games, his stat line is: 56/36/495/3. He has not scored less than 19.7 DK points during that time. Dallas ranks 23rd in the league against the pass and playing indoors down in Texas is the perfect location for another productive game. With Samuel out, a $4100 Kendrick Bourne is also very much in play.

TY Hilton – Welcome back, TY! After a slow start the first nine games of the season, something clicked three weeks ago between Hilton and Philip Rivers and suddenly, he looks like the player of old, burning defenders downfield for big plays. His line the last three weeks is: 23/17/277/4. Just two weeks ago, he caught 8 passes for 110 yards and a TD against the same Texans team he’s playing again this week and yet his price does not reflect his recent performance at all.

Russell Gage – Julio Jones is out again this week which means that Gage steps into the WR2 role for the Falcons this week at home against the Bucs. Tampa is good against the pass, but continues to miss Jamel Dean. With Julio out, Gage should again see 6-8 targets and the Falcons will need to throw the ball considering how poor they are in the run game as Todd Gurley’s knees seem to have given out late in the year.

Emmanual Sanders – Michael Thomas was ruled out today, but Drew Brees will start for the Saints again this week against the Chiefs which means that Emmanual Sanders gets a huge boost, especially being priced at just $4200. Before Brees broke his ribs, Sanders had four straight games of over 13 DK points as he was targeted 33 times during that stretch. With Thomas sidelined and a potential shootout expected, 8 targets seems like a solid floor projection for Sanders this week.

 

TE	DK	50000	FD	60000
Travis Kelce	8000	16.0%	8500	14.2%
Mark Andrews	5500	11.0%	6800	11.3%
Rob Gronkowski	4200	8.4%	6300	10.5%
Jared Cook	3400	6.8%	5600	9.3%
Cole Kmet	3000	6.0%	5100	8.5%

 

Travis Kelce – Kelce’s price is finally catching up to his production this week as he draws a tough matchup in New Orleans that ranks 2nd against the TE this season. If I am paying up for a Chief this week, I am leaning towards Hill since I think there is strong value to pay down for at TE this week, but we cannot ignore what Kelce has done the last six weeks when he’s averaged nearly 30 fantasy points per game.

Mark Andrews – The Jags rank 24th in the league against the TE this season and we still do not know if Brown or Boykin will play on Sunday. If both remain out, Andrews is a very strong play, but even if they do not, he’s in a spot where 15-20 points is very much in range for the athletic TE.

Jared Cook – With Thomas out, Brees will have to spread those extra targets to other pass catchers and Cook will be one that they depend on this week. He has not caught a lot of passes this season, but he does have six TDs so he’s a favorite for this offense in the red zone.

Cole Kmet – Watch the injury report on Saturday. Jimmy Graham is questionable right now with a hip injury. If he is out, Kmet gets a real jolt in value as he’s seen seven targets in each of the last two games even with Graham healthy. The Vikings are still missing Eric Kendricks this week so the Bears should be able to exploit the middle of the field through Kmet.

 

DEF	DK	50000	FD	60000
Rams	4500	9.0%	5000	8.3%
Ravens	3800	7.6%	4800	8.0%
Chicago	3200	6.4%	4400	7.3%
Seahawks	3100	6.2%	4500	7.5%
Washington	2600	5.2%	4200	7.0%

 

Rams – The Rams take on the hapless Jets this week. The end. The Jets again have no path to scoring many points as the Rams dominate through the middle of their defensive line and have the bet lock down corner in the league to help stop the pass. This price is likely too high for me to pay, but the Rams are the top defense in play this week if you do find the extra dollars to roster them.

Ravens – The Ravens are a little banged up, but with the Jags coming to town, they should be able to get Gardner Minshew to make some mistakes once they get well ahead and force them to throw the ball to stay in the game which will lead to plenty of sacks and likely a couple of turnovers.

Washington – Washington might have the best defensive line in the league and they are putting enormous pressure on opposing QBs this season. The Seahawks are led by Russell Wilson, but he is vulnerable behind a mediocre offensive line that matches up poorly against physical teams. They have allowed Wilson to be battered several times this year and that will be the case again on a messy field outside of DC.

 

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