The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 4

The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 4

Now we are rolling. After a split the first week of the season, the last two weeks have been easy (well mostly easy) wins. The betting picks are off to a fantastic start for the season as I am personally 11-4 after a 4-1 Week 3 where I felt really dialed in. The 49ers/Broncos Under 46 and the Seattle/Atlanta Over 42 might have been the two easiest bets we’ll win all year.

On the DFS side, it was not looking great during the first hour or so of the day. Once again, the injury bug bit my lineup as David Montgomery left in the first quarter and did not return for the rest of the game. Of course, his replacement, Khalil Herbert gashed the Texans defense for 157 rushing yards and two TDs so that should give you the idea that we were definitely on to something with targeting Montgomery. The only thing that saved us here is that Montgomery was massively owned (~75%) in cash games so it was not an instant death for my team.

The other injury that hit was Amon-Ra St Brown. He looked like he was on pace for another huge game catching four passes for 53 yards by the middle of the second quarter, but he rolled his ankle and had to come out. When he returned, he was noticeably slower and much less involved the rest of the day, catching only two more passes the rest of the day and commented that the ankle has been an issue. It was not a total bust, but six catches for 73 yards was disappointing considering what he’s posted over his last eight games.

My build itself was pretty straightforward. I started at RB where I felt like our options were limited and locked in Leonard Fournette and David Montgomery early in the week. Fournette had a nice matchup against the Packers, but with their top three WRs sidelined, the Packers were able to stack the box and locked down Lenny for most of the day. There were not a ton of good choices for us at RB last week and the big values looked available at WR so I like both of the choices I made even if they did not pan out that well. Remember, in cash games, we do not want to be out on an island with a random conviction play. Save those plays for GPPs where you get rewarded really well for being contrarian.

My other early plugin plays were at TE with Irv Smith and Defense with the Jags. Irv Smith was priced at $3100 which was only set that low due to his strong MNF performance not factoring in to the pricing release last Sunday night. He caught only two passes for 32 yards, but he was targeted six times which is all we were counting on going in. We cannot control receptions, but we can project targets and this was well in line with my expectations. The only concern with Irv right now is that he’s struggling with drops. Maybe this is case of a small sample size, but certainly worth monitoring.

The Jags defense was something that I wrote up once it looked like Justin Herbert might not play. Leaving the Jags in as my defense was really a feel play on Sunday. It was obvious from all the reports that I read that the ribs were really bothering Herbert. He needed some type of injection just to play through the pain. I felt like there was a good chance that he would either struggle to make the throws we are used to seeing or that he might even get pulled at some point if he proved to be ineffective. I also really liked what I saw from the Jags the previous week so I felt like they had a great chance to deliver value while also saving me some valuable cap space. It worked out well for me as they held the Chargers to 10 points, sacked Herbert once, recovered a fumble and intercepted a pass producing 9 DK points

The wide receiver position is where things went a little wild for me in unexpected ways. I felt like Stefon Diggs and Amon-Ra St Brown were pretty solid value plays. When you see Justin Jefferson at $9300 and Diggs at $7700, that is a wild discrepancy. I thought the Bills/Dolphins game could turn into a shootout and I think the two players possess a similar skillset so Diggs was my top pick at WR. He had 11 targets and caught 7 passes for 74 yards. It was not a monster day, but the volume was there so I was not too disappointed with the play. Jefferson on the other hand was MIA for the Vikes against the Lions who chose to double him all day and took him out of the game entirely. The savings alone made this the right play.

We already discussed ASB so I needed to find a little value for my other two WRs. I had watched Mack Hollins the previous week for the Raiders and was pleased with his involvement in the offense. When it was announced that Hunter Renfrow would not play due to an injury, it felt like a decent spot to punt with Hollins at only $3300. I figured if we could get 5 catches for 40 yards, we’d be okay with that and could get bigger production from our stars. Hollins had a career day. He caught 8 passes for 158 yards and a TD. Wow. Sometimes you just have to get a little bit lucky and Hollins provided a massive spark for the squad with 32.96 DK points. One thing that was notable with the Hollins play was just how much the better DFS players were on it compared to the masses overall. In the largest field I entered in double ups, I had a $5 entry in a field of well over 10,000. In that contest, Hollins was owned by around 17% of the field. However, at the higher end in some of the bigger dollar contests that I played, he was owned by 30-35% of the field.

My other WR play was Brandin Cooks. He was priced at $5800 and he’s the primary pass catching target for the Texans. He was also a disappointment yesterday as he was largely held in check by the Bears. He did see 7 targets, but caught only 2 passes for 22 yards. Another dud for me and Cooks was not highly owned so it hurt much more than Montgomery.

At QB, I decided to draw a line in the sand for this week and paid up at QB. I am not sure that this will become a trend for me, but I just got tired of trying to make the value QB play work every week. When you use a guy like Josh Allen, 30 points is just about his floor right now. He threw for 400 yards and 2 TDs while rushing for another 47 yards and he left points on the field missing an easy TD on 4th down late in the game yesterday. It was nice to have a big day locked in at QB rather than having to wait around to see if my value pick could scrape up 18 points.

My team totaled 122.86 DK points for the week which was above the cash line which ranged from 114-119 in most contests that I followed. It was another low total week for winning points as the RB position continues to be a little tricky, but my intel and intuition paid off nicely with Hollins so while we were fortunate that he had a career day, it still took a little digging and a little courage to use him in my lineup.

To read the entire article, become a premium member of Football Insider Edge by clicking here, or on the JOIN NOW button on the homepage