The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 9

Some weeks, everything goes wrong from start to finish for the roster I put together. It would not be fair to share only the wins and last week definitely was a loss. Some in the industry are going to tell you their plays were great despite the evidence staring everyone in the face, but that is self-serving and does not do much to further your education in trying to become a better DFS owner over the years.

From the break, the QB position was tough to work with. You either needed to be willing to bite the bullet to pay up to get Russell Wilson, risk using a QB in one of the many games where high winds were an issue, or jump on to the other side of the ball in the Seattle/SF game and take a shot with Jimmy G in good weather. Within minutes of watching the 49ers, I knew I had made the wrong choice. Jimmy was struggling early to plant and push off of his back leg and was throwing some ducks right away. When the 49ers pulled him, Nick Mullens came in and put up nice garbage time numbers, the sort of numbers we had hoped for from Jimmy. If you whiff on your QB, your week is basically over, but we had other problems to deal with as well.

I paid up for Derrick Henry against the Bengals as he had a promising game script. Looking at that game, it seemed like the type that set up for him to have a high ceiling performance. The Begnals are not great against the run. The Titans were expected to be ahead. The second half projected to be one where Henry got a lot of carries and hammered the Bengals harder and harder as the game went on. His style of running is such that he gets better as the game wears on and opposing defenses begin to tire. Unfortunately, the Bengals had other plans and took a decent sized lead in the second half and the script took an unexpected turn which meant minimal use of Henry towards the end of the 3rd and then 4th quarter. He still gave us over 100 yards and a TD which was a nice floor, but we were certainly hoping for more.

Kareem Hunt was a bust at home against the Raiders. He was heavily owned so it did not hurt us that much, but it was a surprise considering how great of a matchup it was and with heavy winds, we expected a lot of usage and plenty of chances to make plays. Hunt has been a small disappointment in his role as starter the last few weeks. He has not been bad, but not nearly as productive as Nick Chubb. Perhaps a complimentary role serves him better in the offense.

Things did not go great for us at wide receiver. Brandon Aiyuk performed as expected with garbage time numbers pushing him up over 20 DK points. After that, nothing worked out. AJ Green had been targeted 24 times in the two games leading up to his game with the Titans, but ended up with just two catches on the day. We needed to drop down at some point to pay up in other spots, but it did not work. Some of it was game flow with the Bengals being well ahead and some of it was likely due to weather. In any case, we may be best served sticking to him in GPP action as the Bengals have three WRs that can put up big numbers so it can be tough to know which one going to have the best performance.

I guessed wrong at WR for the Seahawks again. It marked the third time I’ve whiffed this season, twice with Lockett and once with Metcalf the prior week. It has been costly in two of three instances. This will not keep me away from the Seahawks, but we really need to try to isolate the matchups and though it looked like Lockett was in for a bigger week, DK is such a physically dominating athlete that there are very few weeks where I would outright advise you to avoid him. The interesting part is that we never seem to get a balance between the two in games. Russ is really able to zero in on the best matchup each week and has no qualms about taking less looks towards one guy or the other. The Seahawks seem to have a great culture of being able to check their egos so it has proved to be a very successful method for them.

At TE, there were not a lot of options that week that played out well. I opted to pay down hoping that Harrison Bryant could build off of his previous week, but got very little. That tends to be what happens when you totally punt the TE position. We do it primarily for the cap space, but always with the hope that they can finds a few nice catches or maybe even fall into the end zone. Finally, I used the Packers on defense. My thought there was that the game would be contested in high winds which would force both teams to keep the ball on the ground more, accelerating the pace of play. I also thought the Packers would get ahead, forcing the Vikes to go to the air which would lead to some sacks and turnovers. I miscalculated on the health of Dalvin Cook who played one the best games of his career and tore the Packers to shreds all afternoon. For the life of me, I can’t figure out why the Packers did not stuff the box, play tight coverage up near the line of scrimmage and force Kirk Cousins to beat them over the top. I ended up with no points out of the Pack to round out a rough week overall.

 

Week 8 Team
Jimmy Garoppolo	5400	2.76
Derrick Henry	8000	20.2
Kareen Hunt	6900	9.3
Tyler Lockett	7100	7.3
Brandon Aiyuk	5800	23.1
AJ Green	4500	3.9
Harrison Bryant	3200	4.5
Jamaal Williams	6100	18.2
Packers	2900	0
	49900	89.26

 

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QB	DK	50000	FD	60000
Kyler Murray	7800	15.6%	8600	14.3%
Russell Wilson	7600	15.2%	9000	15.0%
DeShaun Watson	7100	14.2%	8300	13.8%
Josh Allen	7000	14.0%	8200	13.7%
Justin Herbert	6800	13.6%	7900	13.2%
Matthew Stafford	6600	13.2%	7500	12.5%
Drew Lock	5200	10.4%	7200	12.0%

 

Russell Wilson – Without his top two RBs this week, it is going to be on Russ again to lead the offense for the Seahawks and so far, he’s been up to the challenge every week with his lowest point total being 24.9 points. With Metcalf and Lockett, he’s got one of the best combos of WRs in the league and while the Bills were one of the best defenses in the league over the last two seasons, that has not been the case this season as they’ve slipped to 23rd overall and 22nd against the pass. I expect fireworks in this game with an over/under of 55 and with Seattle also struggling to defend against the pass, Russ is likely to be putting the ball up plenty often again this week.

DeShaun Watson – Dream matchup again for Watson against the Jags who he tore up for 359 yards and 3 TDs just a few weeks ago against the worst ranked defense in the league. My only feat here is that the Jags lost Gardner Minshew to injury and are starting a 6th round rookie backup, in which case the Texans may not need to roll up big numbers in the second half and could even be running the ball more often to drain the clock, though even in a blowout, I think Watson gets his share of production.

Justin Herbert – Herbert has been fantastic in his rookie season though the Chargers are still the Chargers and find ways to blow games like almost no other team except for the Vikings. Fortunately, with all of the back and forth games, it keep Herbert throwing often which is likely to be the case again this week against the Raiders who have the 27th ranked pass defense in the league. With Austin Ekeler still out and the Chargers having trouble relying on the run game, I expect Herbert to again put up big numbers this week.

Matthew Stafford – Stafford was activated from the COVID list just within the last hour and becomes cash game viable immediately. He is missing his top WR in Kenny Golladay, but the Vikings are down three corner backs this week and hurting badly in the secondary. I think that the Vikings will be able to move the ball and this game should be competitive and potentially high scoring. Last season, against a much better Viking defense he threw for 364 yards and 4 TDs. This year, he’ll face almost no pass rush and should be able to eclipse 300 yards once again.

Drew Lock – Lock is our one pay down option for the week. He’ll be in the dome in Atlanta for this one and is up against a funnel defense that ranks 8th in stopping the run, but 29th against the pass. This will force the Broncos to put the ball up more often than normal. Though I am not anticipating massive numbers for lock, this could be a rare instance where he meets value and would give you some cap relief if you were looking to pay up at other spots.

 

 

RB	DK	50000	FD	60000
Dalvin Cook	8200	16.4%	9300	15.5%
James Robinson	7000	14.0%	7300	12.2%
James Conner	6900	13.8%	8200	13.7%
Chase Edmonds	6800	13.6%	6700	11.2%
David Johnson	5600	11.2%	6800	11.3%
DeeJay Dallas	5000	10.0%	5100	8.5%
Justin Jackson	4900	9.8%	5900	9.8%
Tony Pollard	4000	8.0%	4900	8.2%

 

Dalvin Cook – I felt like an idiot watching Dalvin tear apart the Packers last week. I knew he was returning, I knew it was windy, I knew that the Packers are awful against the run, but I was hesitant to see how he would look in returning from a groin injury so I stayed away. What a mistake, though with his injury history, it was not entirely without reason. This week, he’ll be back to being chalky, but should be in position for another big week against the Lions back at home. He’s eaten up the Lions over the years and though his price is high, he’s so effective in the passing game and around the goal line that his floor should keep him cash game viable again this week against the 21st ranked run defense in the league.

James Conner – I think this is the first time I’ve written up Conner this year, but he should be in for a lot of work against the Cowboys this week in a game that could get ugly early and give him plenty of extra carries in the second half. Dallas ranks 29th in the league against the run and Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Conner has been overlooked all year, but I think he offers near the upside of Cook or Edmonds this week.

Chase Edmonds – We are back to talking about an Arizona running back. I am not sure if I should be excited or not as we’ve been burned before. However, with his limited touches this season, I’ve been really impressed with Edmonds and at times thought he may even replace Kenyan Drake as the starter. He should have a chance to shine this week against a Dolphins defense that ranks last in the league against the run and 27th against pass catching RBs. With 32 targets in seven games this season, Edmonds has a nice floor this week and will likely get the bulk of the opportunities out of the backfield this week.

DeeJay Dallas – It is amazing the names you end up writing about through a football season. There are probably a dozen or so names that I had never heard of until they appeared on the fantasy radar in a given week. With the top two RBs down for Seattle, Dallas again will get the start for Seattle though Travis Homer is healthier than last week so he may split a few more of the touches this week. He did well against the 49ers last week finding the end zone twice and catching five passes. The Bills rank 24th in the league against the run so he should again have a good chance to be effective this week.

Justin Jackson – I was not on Jackson until I saw that Troymaine Pope was out with a concussion. The Chargers have not been that impressed with Josh Kelly so Pope got extra action last week and played well in spelling Jackson, but will not be available this week. Jackson, however, looked good against a tough Denver defense, carrying the ball 17 times for 89 yards and catching 3 passes for 52 yards. He has a great matchups against the Raiders who rank 31st against the run and with Keenan Allen now listed as questionable, the Chargers could lean on the run game that much more than normal this week.

Tony Pollard – Word just broke that Zeke Elliott is dealing with a hamstring injury and that it is likely that he will be out tomorrow against the Steelers. This is not exactly a smash spot for Pollard as he will get the start, but will be doing it with a backup QB at the helm and facing the second best run defense in the league. However, this does free up some serious cap space and he’s a great pass catcher out of the backfield so the floor here is very reasonable. Be sure to check back for updates as the situation develops.

 

WR	DK	50000	FD	60000
Stefon Diggs	7400	14.8%	7600	12.7%
Julio Jones	7200	14.4%	8200	13.7%
Keenan Allen	7000	14.0%	7500	12.5%
Allen Robinson	6900	13.8%	6900	11.5%
Tyler Lockett	6800	13.6%	7400	12.3%
Adam Thielen	6700	13.4%	7700	12.8%
Brandin Cooks	5500	11.0%	6100	10.2%
Marvin Jones	5100	10.2%	6100	10.2%
Jerry Jeudy	4700	9.4%	5700	9.5%

 

Julio Jones – With Calvin Ridley dealing with a foot injury, Julio Jones becomes the clear cut WR to use for the Falcons this week. He will be squaring off with Michael Ojemudia this week, who has been suspect for Denver and has seen 29 targets in his last three games. This should be a great spot for Julio and his price makes him more affordable than normal.

Keenan Allen – I had this all written up and now I am rounding back to update it as it was just reported that Keenan Allen is sick today and now listed as questionable to play this week against the Raiders. Great spot if he plays as the Raiders rank 27th against the pass and Lamarcus Joyner is one of the poorer slot CBs in the league. Allen has been getting 10+ targets per week since Justin Herbert took over the starting job for the Chargers so he’s going to be a great option every week. This would elevate Mike Williams ($5100/$6200) into a near must start roll in a great matchup. Check back in the morning for additional guidance. I’d also be sure to keep some space open in the late games to do some maneuvering.

Tyler Lockett – Here we go again. Is DK going to hurt us again? It’s very possible. However, if we go by Russ in picking on the weakest link, this should be a big day for Lockett. DK will be shadowed by Tre ‘Davious White this week and while White has not been as dominant this year as the last two, he’s still one of the better corners in the league and should prove to be a good test for Metcalf. Meanwhile, Lockett will face Taron Johnson in the slot in a matchup where he has one of the better matchups on paper this week. With the Seahawks still down its top two RBs and a high scoring game expected, I think Lockett is the right play for us here this week….I hope.

Adam Thielen (& Justin Jefferson 6100) – Quiet week last Sunday for the Vikings’ passing attack, but that was to be expected in 35-40 mph winds. That allowed for salaries to slide this week, though we have the ‘Seattle dilemma’ here as well with both players have high upside, but it has tended to be one or the other that has done the most damage in a given week. They are back indoors this week and the Lions have been mediocre on defense so I think the Vikings will be able to move the ball on the ground, but I am expecting them to go to the air much more often than last week to keep the Lions off the line of scrimmage for Dalvin Cook.

Marvin Jones – With Kenny Golladay out and with Matthew Stafford officially back in, the Lions will need to get the ball downfield and Jones should benefit by getting 2-3 extra targets than normal. He caught 4 TDs in a game against the Vikes last season and has a chance to shine again as the Vikings are missing three cornerbacks this week.

Jerry Jeudy – Jeudy has not had the best rookie season, but could be turning a corner after last week when he saw ten targets against the Chargers in a come from behind win.  He’s in a positive game environment this week against a Falcons defense that is tough against the run, but one of the worst in the league against the pass. We’re a little thin on options for cheap WRs this week, but with both teams likely being able to move the ball, this could be the first time this year when Jeudy breaks out.

 

TE	DK	50000	FD	60000
Travis Kelce	7200	14.4%	8000	13.3%
Darren Waller	5800	11.6%	6400	10.7%
Noah Fant	4600	9.2%	5800	9.7%
Hayden Hurst	4100	8.2%	5600	9.3%
Hunter Henry	4000	8.0%	5600	9.3%

 

Travis Kelce – Kelce went off last week after letting us down in Denver. He continues to be the best overall pass catcher for the Chiefs and though he is never going to have the same type of explosive plays as Tyreek Hill, he’s drawing a steady stream of targets, especially in the red zone. Though the Chiefs are likely to be running often against Carolina’s awful run defense, Kelce should still get his targets. His price makes him tough to fit in a week where we do not have a lot of deep value options.

Darren Waller – Waller is in a great spot this week against the Chargers who rank 29th in the league against the TE. While he did not do much last week, nobody put up particularly big numbers in windy conditions in Cleveland so I am not too worried about. In the three games prior to that, he saw 28 targets and is by far the most active pass catching threat for the Raiders. LB Kyzir White grades out as one of the poorer linebackers covering TEs in the league so this has the potential to be a big week for Waller.

Noah Fant – Injuries and mediocre QB play have kept Fant’s numbers in check so far this season, but that could change on the road this week in Atlanta when the Broncos face the 30th ranked defense against the TE. In the games that Fant has started, he’s yet to have a game with less than five targets. With WR Tim Patrick a little banged up, the Broncos will likely be looking to get Fant more involved than normal in the offense this week.

Hayden Hurst – If Calvin Ridley is out this week, that should mean Hurst gets more involved in the action. He’s had double digit fantasy points the last three weeks and is starting to fit into the role that Austin Hooper had last season. He makes for a great punt play to free up the extra cap space that you may need this week.

 

DEF	DK	50000	FD	60000
Steelers	4900	9.8%	5000	8.3%
Washington	3400	6.8%	4700	7.8%
Texans	3100	6.2%	3700	6.2%
Giants	2700	5.4%	4100	6.8%

 

Steelers – This one is a no brainer. The Cowboys are withering away. They will turn to Garrett Gilbert at QB who they signed off the Browns’ practice squad a few weeks ago. Now it appears that Zeke Elliott will not play this week. The Steelers have likely the best defensive line in the league and they are up against a depleted Cowboys’ offensive line. This game should be a blowout and the Steelers’ defense will be the beneficiaries.

Washington – Both sides of this game work well for us, though we get a better price for the Giants. Washinton is really tough up front on defense and has one of the better pass rushes in the league. Considering that the Giants have been one of the worst teams in the league in protecting its QB, that makes this a great spot at home this week. Washington has the 4th ranked defense in the league this season. The Giants also just decided to bench Golden Tate this week for squawking too much about his role in the offense so that is one less weapon for them to use on Sunday.

Giants – The Giants are likely the play here at this price. They rank 9th against the run which works out well in going up against Kyle Allen who is not going to hurt them that much through the air. They managed to put up 14 DK points three weeks ago when these teams met and have been a decent unit in all games but one this season.

 

 

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