The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Selections – Week 6

Last week felt like the grand finale of the 4th of July fireworks for my cash game team last week. It was a weird slate with all but two games at noon and only a couple players of consequence in the late slate games so the action happened fast and fierce over the first few hours and since my entire team started off at noon, my biggest worry going into kickoff was whether or not I could build up enough points to weather the storm if Zeke Elliott went off for the Cowboys against the Packers. It turned out that I would have very little stress in the afternoon as my cash game team rode off to an easy victory, posting just a hair under 250 points for the week to give me an emphatic win.

I know that for many of you, the ride went just as smooth, but for others it got a little rough and still for a few, missing out on a few very key chalk plays ended your chances of keeping up with the stampede. Do not get too frustrated when this happens if you missed out. Just because the chalk hit big this past week does not mean that DFS has suddenly gotten too tough or that cash games are just unwinnable at this point. The cash line is relative. Everyone deals with it whether the number is high or low. Go back and look at the many quality DFS professionals that were below the line last week. There is no group of elite players that have taken over the game so do not get into that mindset. A lot of us had brilliant lineups last week and this happens just about every single season for a few weeks. Fortunately, you already have a great resource right at your fingertips to help you to stay on top of the action and to keep that little edge that you need to stay ahead of the game and to continue to make a profit over the long haul during the NFL season.

I want to start by saying that if you built a cash lineup last week and lost and did not include the players that I marked as MUST PLAY, be sure that in the future those guys are automatic when you start your build. Auden Tate was obvious. We knew he would be the #2 WR in Cincy, going up against a bad secondary, coming off of a lot of targets in two straight games and at bargain basement salary. The late TD was nice, but it was incidental as he was about 90% owned in cash games. We were using him as a free space and for salary cap space more than potential production since we knew everyone was going to own him.

The next obvious play was Michael Thomas at home against the Bucs funnel defense. Foe whatever reason, Thomas saw a big dip in his salary at $6600 which was wild since his targets really hadn’t dropped off and he always runs short routes which is perfect for Teddy Bridgewater who generally plays it safe and keeps his targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. As a bonus, the Bucs do not have a single player in its secondary to worry about and the Saints took full advantage with Thomas who put up a monster game. Even if he had not gone off for over 30 points, he was a virtual lock for around 20 points given his target share so he was another easy play, if not quite a second free space.

From there, I wanted to lock in an elite RB for the week and after much thought and discussion, decided that CMC just made too much sense to pass up for the week, even as the highest priced RB of the week. He’s the entire offense for the Panthers right now and it is amazing to watch. Coming out of college, I thought his lack of size might be an issue, but he’s added some size and he is the most explosive player in the league. Even without great receivers or an elite QB to help stretch the field, he is doing damage on the ground and through the air every week even with teams knowing he is the only real threat on offense to protect against. It will be interesting to see if his price hits peak LeVeon Bell salary of a couple of years back. At this point, it might take a $10k + plus tag to bring his ownership back to normal levels.

For my third WR, I had my eye on Chris Godwin all week after his huge game against the Rams. I love Godwin and I love targeting PJ Williams who has been the CB in the league over the last few seasons. The Bucs/Saints game was easy to target for pass catchers since both teams are strong against the run and with Lattimore on Evans, the path of least resistance went through Godwin and he produced really well while also being fairly low owned in cash games with everyone scrambling to stack stud RBs.

At that point, I shifted back to RB to figure out which other high dollar back would work for me. I settled on DJ at $7500 against the Bengals. It was a great matchup as the Bengals are a terrible defense that is both bad against the run and bad defending pass catching backs. While we did not get the TD we were looking for and him leaving the game early with a back injury, he still had 20 touches and over 18 DK points so it did not hurt us at all.

With just a few spots to fill, I moved on to my defense and again used the Panthers who have been a fantastic value play the last month. They generate a ton of pressure and cause turnovers each week and one led to a score last week which worked out great.

At this point, I needed a cheap TE, Flex and QB to fill out my roster. I had my mind made up for most of the week that Will Fuller was going to be my cheap flex option at $4500. It felt like it was only a matter of time before he had a big breakout performance and boy, did he ever break out in a massive way. After and early TD, I thought, great, well, that should make sure he gets at least 12-15 points. And then he just kept catching passes…and more passes…and then a few more for good measure. He had over 56 DK points on the day and it easily could have been 68 as he was hauled down twice at the goal line. This was the perfect buy low opportunity and I am very happy I was not on the other side of this trade.

At TE, I really hated the position last week. I did not have the funds to pay up for Engram and by this point, I did not have enough to pay up for Waller, but even if I could have, going against the Bears and without much of a WR corp around him with Williams out, it felt like tough sledding. Tyler Eifert had the TE dream matchup against the Cards, but he’s utilized so little that I did not love that either. I ended up settling on Greg Olsen at $4k and promptly took my first zero of the season at TE, an annual tradition that I undertake at least a couple of times every season. Fortunately, there were no TEs with a lot of ownership that were that effective so it really did not hurt and the salary savings helped in other spots.

That left me with $5700 which was just enough to roster Andy Dalton. No, that was not my first choice. I desperately tried to make Matt Ryan fit into my lineup, but just could not make it work and so reluctantly, I started Dalton whose late game heroics gave me the floor effort that I had projected and needed for the week.

In total, a very solid week as I scored 249.28 points which allowed me to sit back, cut up some cheese and sausage, pop open the Ritz crackers and unwind for a mildly entertaining Cowboys/Packers tilt where I was going to take joy in seeing either team lose. It was a great week for everything to come together perfectly as I really felt great about the column for the week and it hit on just about every player.

One thing before jumping into my player picks this week, we welcomed aboard a new team member this week, with @johnnyvegasss coming over to handling the gambling side for us. I wanted to bring somebody on who knows his stuff, but is not putting out 50 random bets on games, teasers and prop bets each week. You guys know me from here and golf and I am a one lineup guy every week and it has been enormously successful for me over the years. JohnnyV is the same way. You are usually going to get one game per week from JohnnyV and sometimes two if he finds a second game he really likes. He wanted to build up his name and a following at the beginning of 2017 and started to release his pick each week for free up through last week. In that time, he managed to accumulate a 31-9 record, which is pretty remarkable.

I started tracking his progress last season and started to make substantial bets on his pick each week up to when he decided to end his free picks last week. I knew we had to get him involved with our site as he’s a perfect fit with my philosophy in how I approach cash games each week. I fire one bullet, whether it is in golf or NFL and live or die with that team for the week. I find that it really helps me to focus down deep on every decision very carefully and it keeps me from getting lazy by expanding my player pool too far and JohnnyV employs the same style with his picks.

The philosophy is simple. When we make a wager we can do it with one of two intentions: to have action or to make money. Neither of those are wrong answers, but for me, I want to be profitable above all else. I am always looking for quality over quantity and that is what JohnnyV brings to the table for us. I have no interest in sitting down to make 30 prop bets on a Sunday with no idea of how things are going to come out. All that does is develop poor habits and gets you into the act of chasing after losses. With JohnnyV, it will be much easy to be disciplined throughout the season. My plan is to keep it simple. Decide how much to set aside and plan to make 16 bets all the same size from here through the Super Bowl. So far, he’s 3-1 this year so I am up two very substantial units so far and ready for more. I am not going to promise you that he will continue onward at a 77% clip of picking winners as that it is a standard that nobody can maintain over time, but I trust his process and his judgement so if you do decide to add the gambling package, I will be right there in the trenches with you each week.

It is very easy to add the gambling package. Just reach out to me directly: zach@fantasygolfinsider.com  Let me know you want to add it on and I will send you the signup code to the combo pack. Since you are already subscribers to the DFS side, the charge is $99 for the rest of the season and the playoffs. Give it a try these next 16 weeks. If you break it down, that is only about $6 per pick, so not too bad if you are betting a reasonable amount.

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