The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Games – Week 4

The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Games – Week 4

As expected, it was a wild Week 3 of DFS action. I will post my FanDuel and DK lineup that I play each week going forward so you can see how I approach each site. We knew it was likely to be a week where the cash line jumped due to so much emphasis on the Vikings/Chargers game. While that was not so unexpected, there were a couple of surprises around the league that really hurt me on DK, but I was able to survive on FD. I was $100 short of being able to afford the Bills defense on DK. No big deal, I thought. The Jets have a tough defense and should be able to hold down the Patriots at home. While they only allowed 13 points, they had zero turnovers and zero sacks, putting up all of 4 points. Meanwhile, the Bills tore the Commanders to shreds and scored an amazing 32 points, an unheard of total for a team defense in DFS.

The other area that really hurt me was the zero that I took from Josh Reynolds. I knew he was a little banged up going into the game last week, but it certainly did not sound like he would be limited at all. He looked just fine on Thursday night in Green Bay so I am not exactly sure how he fell entirely out of the gameplan against the Falcons. In a week where the cash line ends up in the mid 160s, you simply cannot afford to have such a terrible misfire.

I am all done with Josh Kelley. Running him against the Titans did not feel great, but it was understandable that he would struggle. The fact that he could only muster 12 rushing yards against a team that is terrible against the run just confirms that he is useless. I do not care what his matchups look like going forward or if he might somehow be heavily owned. He has almost no presence in the passing game so if he gets shut down on the ground, he is toast. The only saving grace with using him last week was that he was in fact very heavily owned (likely for the last time).

I can’t pick a TE this season to save my life. I guess it really did not matter too much. I needed cap space on FD and dropped down to Smythe to squeeze JJ into the flex spot and he was about as bad as Ertz, but wow has it been a rough run at the position so far. This is where I promise to start paying up at TE, but then end up punting again this week.

All in all, a 1-1 week. Not great, not terrible. A couple of chalky plays hurt me more than expected, but when it comes from a defense, there just is not much that I can complain about.

DraftKings
Kirk Cousins	6900	29.68
Josua Kelley	5400	2.7
Tony Pollard	8000	18.1
Justin Jefferson	9300	30.9
Mike Williams	6000	28.1
Josh Reynolds	4200	0
Zach Ertz	3500	2.6
Adam Thielen	3900	34.5
Jets	2800	4
	50000	150.58
FanDuel
Kirk Cousins	7800	26.68
Josua Kelley	6100	2.2
Kenneth Walker	7600	29.1
Mike Williams	7200	21.6
Drake London	6500	4.1
Amari Cooper	6200	21.1
Durham Smythe	4800	2
Justin Jefferson	9700	24.4
Jets	3900	4
	59800	135.18

 

 

 

QB	DK	%  Cap	FD	%  Cap
Josh Allen	8200	16.4%	9000	15.0%
Justin Herbert	7800	15.6%	8600	14.3%
Anthony Richardson	6700	13.4%	7600	12.7%
Russell Wilson	5800	11.6%	7500	12.5%
Bryce Young	5200	10.4%	6800	11.3%

 

• Josh Allen – Josh Allen seems back on track the last couple of weeks after a miserable game against the Jets to open the season. He’s up against the Dolphins this week in what is projected to be the highest scoring game on Sunday. The Bills have blown out their opponents the last two weeks which has kept his fantasy totals in check, but this week, in a back and forth scoring affair, he should be firing away for all four quarters.
• Justin Herbert – Without Austin Ekeler, the Chargers are a completely one dimensional team. Josh Kelley has had no success running the ball, even against the lowly Vikings last Sunday. The Raiders have the 28th ranked defense in the league this season and continue to be without Chandler Jones. The game total jumped up to 49.5 so with two bad defenses on the field, it should be another week of 300 passing yards and 2-3 TDs.
• Anthony Richardson – Richardson returns to action this week after clearing concussion protocols and showed in two games what he is capable of, especially with his legs. He rushed for three TDs in five quarters of action and he threw the ball better than advertised and looked very capable in the pocket. The Rams are ranked 26th on defense this season and other than Aaron Donald, this is a very mediocre unit that is very easy to exploit.
• Bryce Young – I wish it were Andy Dalton under center this week again for the Panthers as he ran the offense well last week in throwing for over 350 yards against the Seahawks. However, this could be the week that Young breaks out as the Vikings are mostly lost on defense. The lack a pass rush and even when blitzing have trouble generating pressure on opposing QBs. He is also mobile and can generate points with his legs. I think this game ends up with a decent amount of scoring so 20+ DK points does not seem out of the question.

 

RB	DK	%  Cap	FD	%  Cap
CMAC	9200	18.4%	9700	16.2%
Tony Pollard	7800	15.6%	8400	14.0%
Kyren Williams	6000	12.0%	7600	12.7%
Zack Moss	6000	12.0%	7300	12.2%
Alexander Mattison	5800	11.6%	7200	12.0%
Javonte Williams	5800	11.6%	5800	9.7%
Jerome Ford	5400	10.8%	6400	10.7%

 

• CMAC – The 49ers might be down Deebo, Jennings and Mitchell on Sunday which would make the 49ers even more reliant on the run than normal. CMAC is about as big of a lock as the is in terms of touches each week. He averages 20 carries and 4-5 catches per game. The 49ers have one of the best O Lines in the league and are up against one of the worst D Lines so they should get plenty of push. Pollard ripped them up for over 100 yards on the ground last week and Barkley put up big numbers the week prior to that. With so many good WR options, it is tough to fit him in, but he’s the least likely of the big names to let you down which makes him a great cash game option.
• Tony Pollard – Pollard has taken over the lead role at RB for the Cowboys this season and has seen 17, 33 and 26 touches to start the season. He likely would have seen even more against the Giants, but the game got so out of hand early that he was not needed in the second half. This is an interesting game for the Cowboys with Zeke Elliott coming back into town with his new team. Pollard will want to send a message to his former teammate that the Cowboys made the right choice in moving on from him.
• Kyren Williams – Cam Akers was an afterthought before the season started and Williams has been the lead back all three weeks. What I really love about Williams is how much usage he gets in the passing game with 19 targets through three games to go with the 13-15 carries he will collect. He is likely to be one of the higher owned players this week, but the volume and price make that understandable for cash games in particular.
• Zack Moss – Speaking of RBs that do it all, Moss played so well in Week 2 that the Colts released Deon Jackson and upped his touches from 22 to 32 against the Ravens. They were rewarded with 145 total yards and a TD in stunning upset win last weekend. He should be in another matchup that favors him well as the Rams rank 29th against the run this season and are not the same tough defense that they were a few seasons ago.
• Javonte Williams – The Bears appear to have given up on their season and have problems on and off the field. The Broncos have been nearly as bad, but even with the huge loss last week, they still have some talent on the offensive side of the ball. Williams is only going to see his touches go up throughout the season as he works back to 100% health. The Bears gave up 153 rushing yards and six catches for 2 TDs to RBs against the Chiefs last week. If Williams even gets half of that this week we are in great shape. Also, he is stupidly cheap on FanDuel this week.
• Jerome Ford – Ford largely got stuffed by the Titans on the ground last week, but he did get a rushing TD and caught another to salvage his week. The Browns matchup well against the Ravens D Line and if Watson’s shoulder is not 100%, they may be relying more on Ford than they would otherwise. He could very easily see 20+ touches.

 

WR	DK	%  Cap	FD	%  Cap
Justin Jefferson	9600	19.2%	9400	15.7%
Davante Adams	8000	16.0%	8100	13.5%
Keenan Allen	7900	15.8%	9500	15.8%
Ja’Marr Chase	7800	15.6%	8200	13.7%
Puka Nacua	6700	13.4%	7500	12.5%
Brandon Aiyuk	6200	12.4%	7600	12.7%
Tank Dell	4600	9.2%	6200	10.3%
Adam Thielen	4500	9.0%	6800	11.3%
Josh Palmer	4000	8.0%	6100	10.2%
DJ Chark	4000	8.0%	6000	10.0%

 

• JJ – There may not be a week all season that I do not remind you that JJ is in play for DFS purposes. He is averaging over 150 yards per week and just under 30 DK. He is likely to set the single season receiving yardage record if he can avoid injuries. What he really has going for him, in addition to being an incredible talent, is that the Vikings have a very limited run game and also a terrible defense which means that the Vikings are going to be in a lot of high scoring games all season trying to keep up with opponents through the air.
• Davante Adams – It looks like Jimmy G is going to play this week which is great news for Adams who has built great rapport with him. Adams was targeted 20 times last week and 37 times on the season overall. The Chargers secondary has been torched this season and was lucky to get out of Minnesota with a win to avoid going 0-3. This figures to be a high scoring game in great playing conditions and you get Adams at a huge discount to JJ which makes him the superior value this week.
• Keenan Allen (and Josh Palmer) – With Mike Williams gone for the season with an ACL tear and Austin Ekeler still not back from an injury, Allen will remain the focal point of the offense for the Chargers. He is already over 400 receiving yards on the season and averaging 13 targets per week. The Chargers have been unable to move the ball on the ground at all in Ekeler’s absence so the short passing game to Allen has been used very well in its place and is likely to continue against one of the worst defenses in the league on Sunday. In 17 career games versus the Raiders, he has 103 receptions for 1146 yards and six TDs so he’s never struggled in this matchup. You can also play Josh Palmer this week who is priced way too low at $4000 as the likely WR2 for the Chargers. He beat out first round pick Quentin Johnston for the WR3 spot out of training camp and he had a lot of success last season when asked to step up due to injuries. He ended up with a stat line of 7/4/66/1 last week and that type of volume would be plenty to justify this price.
• Ja’Marr Chase – Amazing spot for Chase this week. The Titans are a funnel defense that absolutely bottles up the run. Chase got loose last week catching 12 passes for 141 yards, finally breaking out in a big way against the Rams on Monday night. He caught five passes for 109 yards in a playoff game back in Jan 2022 and is likely to do even more under much better conditions on Sunday.
• Puka Nacua – The Bengals were able to slow down Puka on Monday, but he is still off to a historic start for a rookie WR and he’s developed a great immediate connection with Matthew Stafford who has to be thrilled to have him and Kupp to throw to beginning in another week. I am not sure if he will hit his average of 14 targets this week, but he’s been very reliable lining up all over the field for the Rams and this is a game where I expect plenty of offense.
• Brandon Aiyuk – Deebo did not practice on Friday and Jauan Jennings is doubtful to play which means the Aiyuk would be the clear WR1 for the 49ers. This also is a huge upgrade for George Kittle who would likely become a much bigger part of the passing attack for Brock Purdy. The Cardinals have played tougher than expected the last couple of weeks, but going on the road to SF is a different story and Aiyuk is a mismatch for anyone in the Cardinals’ secondary.
• Adam Thielen (and DJ Chark) – Thielen welcomes his old team into town this week and he will be fired up to show them that he still has some gas left in the tank. After a slow first week, the volume has picked up in a big way the last two weeks with 23 targets, 18 catches, 199 yards and 2 TDs. The Vikings are favored this week so the Panthers should be throwing the ball, especially if Miles Sanders can’t play. The Vikings do nothing well on defense. They do not rush the QB well, though they will blitz often. This should lead to Thielen being utilized in a similar way to what we saw from Keenan Allen last week. I think DJ Chark is also a nice option, especially if you want to double up with a GPP lineup. You could bring it back with JJ and still have plenty of funds to build the rest of your lineup.

 

TE	DK	% Cap	FD	% Cap
TJ Hockenson	6500	13.0%	7200	12.0%
George Kittle	5100	10.2%	6300	10.5%
Gerald Everett	3600	7.2%	5000	8.3%
Pat Freiermuth	3400	6.8%	5500	9.2%
Hayden Hurst	3300	6.6%	5400	9.0%

 

• TJ Hockenson – He is not dating Taylor Swift, but TJ has emerged as the 2nd best TE in the NFL at this point in his career. While the Panthers have been decent against the pass this season, they rank 26th against the TE. TJ has 28 targets through three games and the Vikings have struggled to establish any kind of run game all season. Without Adam Thielen, TJ is also the favored target down around the endzone.
• George Kittle – I rarely write up Kittle anymore. When Deebo, CMAC and Aiyuk are all healthy, the 49ers prefer to use Kittle as a blocker and his targets can be limited. However, Deebo did not practice on Friday and there is a good chance he ends up resting this week. If that is the case, Kittle could see a bump in the passing game this week and when he does collect additional targets, he’s capable of putting up massive fantasy numbers. The Cards have been poor against the TE over the years so this could be a sneaky play depending on the injury report on Sunday.
• Pat Freiermuth – I really hate the low end punts at TE this week. Nothing down here stands out. However, the Texans rank 25th against the TE and even though he does not see a lot of targets, he is a favorite of Kenny Pickett close to the goal line and he has found the endzone twice in three games. My reading of things also shows that he is likely to be the highest owned TE this week so I am not likely to step out of line here and will be willing to get smoked here again so long as much of the rest of the field does as well.
• Hayden Hurst – The Vikings gave up 8 receptions and 2 TDs to TEs last week for the Chargers and Hurst is likely to be leaned on all season by rookie QB Bryce Young. Hurst opened the season with a 7/5/41/1 game and that is the type of line that is well within his reach this week against a terrible pass defense.

 

DEF	DK	% Cap	FD	% Cap
49ers	4700	9.4%	4700	7.8%
Eagles	4100	8.2%	5000	8.3%
Browns	2800	5.6%	4300	7.2%
Panthers	2500	5.0%	3400	5.7%

 

• 49ers – This should be one of the biggest mismatches in terms of a DL that should dominate over an OL. The 49ers bring a ton of pressure and will be able to attack the weak point in the middle of the Cardinal O Line. The 49ers are also heavy favorites at home which means that they should be able to go after Josh Dobbs in the second half.
• Browns – The Browns have the top ranked defense in the NFL through three weeks and somehow they are available to us for just $2800 on DK. The Ravens enter the game beat up on its offensive line and missing OBJ and Bateman, making the receiver corps even weaker than normal. This is our obvious cash game play to lock in this week.
• Panthers – The Panthers face a high powered offense in the Vikings this week, but that offense has also been incredibly mistake prone this season with eight turnovers through three weeks. The Vikings also struggle enormously to protect Kirk Cousins who is routinely the most hit QB in the NFL and has been sacked eight times through three weeks. This could end up being a high scoring game but a couple of turnovers and a couple of sacks is all we would need to make this a worthwhile play.