The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Games – Week 7

The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Games – Week 7

RECAP

Week 6 worked out well for me as I was finally able to breakthrough for wins on both DraftKings and FanDuel. For some reason, FD has been smooth sailing over the last four weeks where there has not been much of a sweat. I was able to avoid any big busts last week, largely sticking to the value plays across the board. Cooper Kupp and Stafford were both cheap so easy to pair up, though Kyren Williams capped the upside for Stafford again. I loved Raheem Mostert and he was way too cheap on DK, but a little pricey on FD relative to other RBs so I landed on Etienne and Kamara who both produced well, but not nearly as well as Mostert.

I opened up some salary cap space on DK by dropping down to play D’Onta Foreman. I debated between Foreman and Chuba Hubbard, both of whom were in the same price range. I have never been that impressed with Hubbard and hated the matchup against the Dolphins where I thought the Panthers would be behind big and not running the ball as often beyond the first quarter. Somehow, the Panthers came out swinging and took a quick 14-0 lead and Hubbard scored a TD so it was a nightmare scenario for me. I figured the Bears would be able to run well against the Vikings and while Foreman did gain 65 yards on the ground, the Bears were out of sorts on offense all day. Fortunately, it did not come back to hurt me, but using Hubbard would have made it a much easier day on DK.

All three QBs that I wrote up last week were more or less a bust. The only saving grace was that Fields was priced up just high enough so that I was not tempted to pay up for him in a matchup I thought looked great on paper against the Vikings. Joe Burrow was my QB on DK and I felt great about the pick when he threw for 140 yards and 2 TDs in the first half. Unfortunately, that was it for Burrow who did next to nothing in the second half, throwing for about 40 yards and a red zone INT to gain nothing for me in the second half of a game where there had been plenty of scoring at the outset.

At WR, I really wanted to work both Ja’Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill onto my lineup for DK. It felt like Tyreek was in a similar spot to what we saw the week prior against the Giants and he delivered another huge day. It worked out even better for me as Hill was barely owned at all on DK so this gave my team a huge boost. Chase was the chalk on DK again and once again put up disappointing numbers. He’s been incredibly boom or bust this season, reflecting inconsistent play from Joe Burrow, but it wasn’t a total bust so it was not fatal.

To get to Chase and Hill, I had to pay down at WR in two spots and opted for KJ Osborn and Josh Downs. KJ started off the game nicely with four catches for 48 yards in the first half, but was shutout in the second half as the Vikings offense looked lost without Justin Jefferson. I used Jordan Addison on FD with the last of my cap space dollars and though he did catch a TD, he also had a quiet day. Josh Downs got bailed out with a 1 yard TD reception in the second half for the Colts to get us to value on DK. On FD, I took advantage of silly pricing on Jaylen Waddle and Michael Pittman who both came through nicely with Waddle grabbing a TD pass and Pittman going for over 100 receiving yards.

Evan Engram was my TE on both slates and while he did not put up huge numbers, he was not a sub 5 point bust like I endured at the position the first four weeks of the season so I was fine with the effort.

On defense, I almost always just look for a punt play. On DK, the Bucs did not provide much against a very tough Lions offensive line, but the Bears rewarded me on FD. Like I say every week, you can play any defense against the Vikings this season as they are good for at least a few sacks, a turnover or two and last week managed to give up a blocked extra point. All in all, a very solid week for me as I avoided any huge duds and managed to capitalize on some creative lineup building efforts to squeeze in some big names that came through nicely for me.

DraftKings
Joe Burrow	6300	14.8
Raheem Mostert	6400	37.2
D’Onta Foreman	4400	7.7
Ja’Marr Chase	8300	14
KJ Osborn	4400	8.8
Josh Downs	4100	13.1
Evan Engram	4500	11.1
Tyreek Hill	9300	31.3
Bucs	2300	4
	50000	142
FanDuel
Matthew Stafford	7300	13.24
Travis Etienne	7700	21.8
Alvin Kamara	7500	13.9
Cooper Kupp	8700	24.3
Jaylen Waddle	6800	14.6
Michael Pittman	6500	15.4
Evan Engram	5500	7.6
Jordan Addison	6700	10.3
Bears	3200	10
	59900	131.14

 

Player Pool

Week 7
QB	DK	%  Cap	FD	%  Cap
Patrick Mahomes	8300	16.6%	9200	15.3%
Matthew Stafford	6500	13.0%	6700	11.2%
Geno Smith	6000	12.0%	7000	11.7%
Sam Howell	5500	11.0%	7400	12.3%

ADD: DeShaun Watson – Back this week for the Browns and was seemingly without limitations at Friday’s practice. In a week where the QB situation is ugly all around, paying down looks like a great option, especially against a defense that is giving up an average of over 20 DK points per game against opposing QBs.

• Patrick Mahomes – The upper tier QBs are tricky this week with Hurts and Tua off the main slate. Lamar Jackson could get traction among owners, but going against the Lions in really windy weather does not seem optimal either. I will take my chances in this range with Mahomes who has not been amazing this season, but gets a Chargers defense this week that ranks 26th overall and gives up plenty of points. The Chiefs also got Mecole Hardman back from the Jets in a trade this week so maybe that can spark the downfield passing game.
• Matthew Stafford – Stafford has played fine this season, but his floor and ceiling have been the same so far. That will likely change this week with Kyren Williams out as well as backup Ron Rivers. This should give the Rams a bump in the passing game where they have an amazing tandem of Cooper Kupp and rookie sensation Puka Nacua. The Steelers do not have the secondary to handle either of these two so look for more of a pass first approach from Stafford in the weeks ahead.
• Geno Smith – Nobody is terribly excited to see Geno priced down here this week. He has not been very good this season since signing a big extension in the offseason and you have to wonder why the Seahawks decided to go this direction when they could have maneuvered for a rookie QB in the draft which would have created a very similar path to what they took with Russell Wilson in 2012. In any case, this should be a week where he post some numbers against the Cards who rank 31st against the pass. The Cards have one of the worst D lines in the NFL so Smith should finally get some time to breathe in the passing game.
• Sam Howell – Howell has been decent as the starting QB for the Commanders this season, especially when you consider how terrible his line has been in protecting him. He’s also pretty athletic and has run for over 100 yards on the ground. The Giants rank 28th in the league in total defense and 26th against the pass.

 

RB	DK	%  Cap	FD	%  Cap
Josh Jacobs	7400	14.8%	8000	13.3%
Kenneth Walker	7000	14.0%	8800	14.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs	6300	12.6%	6200	10.3%
Isiah Pacheco	6100	12.2%	7400	12.3%
Jerome Ford	5100	10.2%	6600	11.0%

 

• Josh Jacobs – So far, Josh Jacobs and other RBs that had contentious negotiations in the offseason are proving the GMs of teams around the league correct in not wanting to pay them big dollars. Jacobs is averaging all of 3 yards a carry this season, looking much more like the RB that frustrated the Raiders for his first few years in the league. However, over the last four games, he’s had 22, 28, 25 and 30 opportunities (carries + targets) and gets the 29th ranked Bears defense this week. With Jimmy G out and Brian Hoyer under center, they’ll lean on him even more often to try to keep the offense moving.
• Kenneth Walker – This should be the breakout game we have been waiting for with Walker this week at home against the Cardinals. Kyren Williams ripped this defense apart last weekend in the second half gaining over 100 yards and a TD on the ground. The Cards rank 29th against the run this season and are a TD underdog.
• Jahmyr Gibbs – Gibbs is a much better play on FD than DK where his price does not seem to reflect that David Montgomery is out this week. Craig Reynolds is also banged up and questionable to go this week so Gibbs could be getting more of a three down RB workload. The matchup is not great against a tough Ravens team, but given the windy weather, he’s likely to get enough volume on the ground and in the short passing game to provide a solid floor for cash games.
• Isiah Pacheco – Pacheco has cemented himself as the top RB for the Chiefs this season as McKinnon and CEH are barely getting any touches at all while Pacheco has seen his workload steadily increase from just 12 touches in Week 1 to 23, 17 and 22 the last three weeks with a steady presence in the passing game. The Chargers rank 24th against the run this season and the Chiefs lack the downfield passing game of previous years so Pacheco should continue to see a featured role in the offense all season.
• Jerome Ford – Ford is sharing touches with Kareem Hunt, but still getting the majority of them for the Browns in the absence of Nick Chubb. He had a very nice game against the Steelers when Chubb got hurt, but has dealt with really tough matchups the last three weeks against the run (Titans, Ravens and 49ers). It should get easier this week inside against the Colts and it will also help to have Watson back under center at QB to keep the Colts honest. Hunt is also banged up and has been limited in practice all week with a thigh injury so Ford could see even more work than usual.

 

WR	DK	%  Cap	FD	%  Cap
Cooper Kupp	9500	19.0%	9700	16.2%
Stefon Diggs	8900	17.8%	9000	15.0%
Amon Ra St Brown	8000	16.0%	8200	13.7%
Puka Nucua	7600	15.2%	7300	12.2%
Amari Cooper	6100	12.2%	6800	11.3%
Zay Flowers	5700	11.4%	6300	10.5%
Christian Watson	5600	11.2%	6600	11.0%
Terry McLaurin	5400	10.8%	7200	12.0%
Marquise Brown	5300	10.6%	6700	11.2%
Josh Palmer	4800	9.6%	6500	10.8%
Wandale Robinson	3800	7.6%	5600	9.3%

 

• Cooper Kupp – Kupp was out for four games, but in two games since his return, he’s put up amazing numbers: 21/15/266/1  I thought maybe Puka would cut more into his volume, but so far, that is not the case. He has huge mismatches against all three Pittsburgh corners this week and with the running game in shambles for the Rams with the loss of Kyren Williams, the Rams will be throwing more than ever.
• Stefon Diggs – Diggs is putting together a dominant season with 49 catches, 620 yards and 5 TDs through six games this season. He’s smashed the Patriots since joining the Bills in 2020 with 43 catches for 629 yards and six TDs in seven games where the worst performance was in a blowout win where he simply was not needed.
• Puka (FANDUEL ONLY) – Weird pricing here Puka. He’s way too expensive on DK and too cheap on FD. He was less active last week against the Cards, but a dropped TD kept it from being more respectable. I do think that there will be more balance in the passing attack this season and seven targets seems like a floor for Puka, especially now that Kyren Williams is out with an injury.
• Amari Cooper – Cooper put up a 100 yard game against the 49ers last week and that was without DeShaun Watson pulling the trigger. With Watson returning this week, this is a fantastic spot for Cooper. The Colts have given up huge games to WR1s this season for various teams and people are going to overlook Cooper in great conditions indoors against the Colts this Sunday.
• Zay Flowers – Though Flowers has not exploded for a massive game this season, he’s been incredibly consistent, averaging 6 catches for 60 yards through six games this season with an average of 8 targets per week. The Ravens do not have a real dynamic RB without JK Dobbins so Flowers will remain a key component in the offense all season.
• Terry McLaurin – The DK price here stood out to me.  There have been some growing pains in building the relationship with Sam Howell, but it is improving as the season goes by. Even if he does not have a huge week, at $5400, he does not need to be amazing. However, the Giants rank 26th against the pass this season and McLaurin has at least two really strong individual matchups at CB this week.
• Marquise Brown – Brown is seeing huge volume this season averaging nine targets per week through six games and he’s already found the endzone three times. The Cards have no run game without James Conner and are a touchdown underdog on the road against the Seahawks on Sunday. The Seahawks have thus far been a funnel defense this season, ranking first against the run, but 24th against the pass.
• Josh Palmer – This is a low price on DK for Palmer. He needs to step up his game to be a better replacement for Mike Williams, but he has shown he is capable of catching a deep ball as he’s done in the last three games. The Chiefs are likely to be leading in this one so the Chargers will need to throw the ball if they want to stay close. He’s going to be a popular boom/bust option at a low price for cash games.
• Wan’Dale Robinson – The Giants are awful in the passing game this season, but in four games, Robinson has 25 targets and is averaging 5.5 receptions per game in that time. At that clip and this price, it is very tough to be a total bust and we need to find cap space in a week where there are very specific elite names to target.

 

TE	DK	% Cap	FD	% Cap
Travis Kelce	8000	16.0%	8500	14.2%
Mark Andrews	5700	11.4%	6900	11.5%
Kyle Pitts	4000	8.0%	5600	9.3%
Luke Musgrave	3300	6.6%	5000	8.3%
Zach Ertz	3200	6.4%	5000	8.3%
Michael Mayer	2700	5.4%	4900	8.2%

 

• Travis Kelce – Obligatory mention of the best TE in the NFL. I doubt I can pay up for him in cash games this week, but he’s coming on strong after an early season knee injury. Chargers also rank 3rd against the TE this season. However, the Chiefs have a bunch of WR3/4 type of guys for Mahomes to throw to on the outside so Kelce is going to have to carry this group of pass catchers if the Chiefs are going to be successful.
• Kyle Pitts – It seems like a TEBC (Tight End By Committee) situation, but you see Pitts and Jonnu Smith on the field at the same time all the time. The only thing that delineates Pitts as a TE vs a WR is that for some reason, we the Falcons still put the letters T & E next to his name. He’s basically the WR2 for the Falcons. He’s seen an uptick in volume the last two weeks with 11 catches for 130 yards and a TD.
• Luke Musgrave – Ugh, it’s no fun writing up Musgrave again. He’s disappointed us previously, but he’s up against the Broncos this week who rank second to last in the NFL this season against the TE. I hate that he’s gaining steam this week, but it looks like the industry has him as the top punt play of the week at TE. It’s a nice matchup, but I have not been that impressed this season. I know how this will go down. If I roster him, he’ll catch 3 passes for 14 yards. If I fade him, he’ll catch 3 passes for 14 yards and 2 TDs. The TE position is fun.
• Zach Ertz – Right behind the Broncos, the Seahawks rank 30th in the league against the TE this season. This makes sense given that teams generally don’t want to throw against the CBs of the Seahawks. He’s been quiet in a handful of weeks, but this should not be one of them as he played very well against the Seahawks last season and the Cardinals are devoid of a run game with James Conner on the IR.

 

DEF	DK	% Cap	FD	% Cap
Browns	3300	6.6%	4500	7.5%
Giants	3000	6.0%	3400	5.7%
Ravens	2500	5.0%	4100	6.8%
Chiefs	2400	4.8%	4400	7.3%

 

• Browns – The Browns swarmed the 49ers last week and largely shutdown the top team in the league on the way to handing them their first loss. Gardner Minshew is a bit of a gunslinger and turnover prone so the Browns should be all over him this week.
• Giants – The Giants finally came to life last Sunday night against the Bills, easily the best game of the year for this much maligned defense. On FanDuel, this is the obvious lock play as they are priced way down compared to DK which makes them an easy punt option.
• Ravens – The Ravens are the 2nd ranked defense in the league and being priced as if they are one of the worst on DK. With David Montgomery still out, it makes the Lions one dimensional. With high winds expected, this should end up being a much lower scoring game than otherwise would be expected.
• Chiefs – People need to stop targeting the Chiefs as a team to target for Overs on the point total side this season. This is the 9th ranked defense in the league with 17 sacks and 9 turnovers through six games. The Chargers are a mess without a deep WR threat since losing Mike Williams to a knee injury in Week 3 and Justin Herbert looked awful on Monday night.