Thursday Night Showdown Slate- 49ers @ Titans

Lines:

49ers (-3.5) @ Titans

Over/Under 44

 

DVOA

49ers against the run #2
49ers against the pass #21
Titans against the run #17
Titans against the pass #15

 

Notes:

Eli Mitchell has not practiced yet this week and is currently listed as questionable.  Being that he has not practice since his concussion in week 13, something dramatic will have to happen for him to play.  Keep an eye out however, because his playing will have a big impact on the 49ers offense.

AJ Brown took part in a walkthrough on Tuesday and could play Thursday, which would give the Titans a huge boost.  Keep on top of this situation.

 

Favorites:

Deebo Samuel, $11,600

• Two productive, but not spectacular games sine returning from injury (18.9 and 12.9 DK points).
• I am concerned with his lack of usage in the passing game (only 5 catches on 6 targets) as long as Mitchell is out, because he becomes more of a ball carrier with only Jeff Wilson at RB.
• He has found the endzone in both of the last two weeks however, so if he does anything through the air, he will have a big game.
• The Titans secondary has struggled much of the season and allowed the 2^nd most DK points to WRs.

George Kittle, $11,200

• Both Samuel and Kittle have the highest ceilings of any player in this game.
• Kittle has a monstrous 33 targets over the last three games. He has 42.6, 37.1, and 15.3 DK points in those games.
• I actually like Kittle a little more than Samuel if Mitchell does not play and Samuel plays more in running the ball mode.

 

Value:

AJ Brown, $8,800

• If Brown plays, this price is crazy low for him. He wasn’t putting up monster numbers in the few games before he went on the IR, but he is certainly capable of a high ceiling game.
• Before IR he was averaging almost 8 targets a game.
• The 49ers can be beaten through the air 21^st DVOA and have allowed the 10^th most DK points to WRs.
• Julio Jones has been worthless and it is not even clear if he will play, giving Brown a chance to see monster volume with a negative game script for the Titans.

Jeff Wilson, $5,200

• I don’t really like Wilson, but the offense that he is in and the position as a bellcow back if Mitchell is out, makes him a must play on a Showdown Slate for his price.
• His large volume last game (21 carries) got him to 110 yards and a TD.
• The Titans are better vs the run than the Falcons, but if Wilson gets 20 carries and he should as the 49ers have a positive game script, then he should pay off his price.
• Be sure Mitchell is inactive, because if he plays than Wilson will lose his luster.

 

Sleepers:

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $5,400

• Julio Jones is a gametime decision and it is not even for sure that AJ Brown will play, so at worst it looks like NWI will be the #2 pass catching option.
• He was better than Jones last week with 4/32 on 7 targets.
• Again, negative game script for the Titans could mean another 6-7 targets for him this week.

Dontrell Hilliard, $2,800

• 2^nd most carries (9) last week behind Foreman, but more importantly he looks to be the better pass catching option (4 catches on 6 targets last week)
• As an underdog in this game, if the Titans are force to come behind and throw the ball, Hilliard could get more action than Foreman.

 

Deep Sleepers:

Cody Hollister, $400

• If Julio Jones is out, then I might take a flyer on Hollister.
• He finished second among the Titans WRs in snaps last week.

 

Possible lineups:

C- Kittle, Samuel, AJ Brown (if healthy), Hillard, Westbrook-Ikhine, 49ers defense -or-Gould

C- Samuel, Kittle, AJ Brown (if healthy), Hilliard, Wilson, 49ers defense -or- Gould

C- AJ Brown (if healthy), Kittle, Samuel, Wilson, Westbrook-Ikhine, Swaim

C- Samuel, Aiyuk, Garoppolo, Wilson, Hilliard, Westbrook-Ikhine