Thursday Night Showdown Slate Article- Giants @ Patriots

Not often are there games like this one we have on Thursday night where I can only envision one outcome and game script.  As hard as I try, I cannot see anything else happening besides the Patriots getting ahead early, scoring at will, and their defense completely stifling an injury ravaged Giants offense.  We clearly won’t be the only ones with this vision in our heads, so we need to try and be creative with a few plays to try and set ourselves apart from the masses.

The game total has actually dropped significantly from an opening of 46.5 to a now 41.  Some of this has to do with just about every single significant Giants offensive starter being ruled out, but it also factors in the weather which is expected to be wet and windy.

The Patriots opened up as 14 point favorites, but that line has moved as well up to 17.

We have seen through the first four weeks that the Giants defense is equally inept against the run and pass.  The Patriots will exploit all of it, but if the weather truly is as bad as predicted then I will be reducing exposure to perimeter receivers like Josh Gordon that I normally would load up on. Julian Edelman is Brady’s nookie, so he will be sure to get his usual 7-10 targets and the weather likely will not affect him negatively as most his routes are short and underneath. Edelman is an excellent Captain spot option in this game.

One important variable that we need to monitor with the actives/inactives is if Rex Burkhead plays.  If he is ruled out like he was on Sunday, then it makes Sony Michel and James White even more valuable.  Positive game script and an early lead will lead to running the football and that is Michel’s gig.  He will likely see 15-20 carries.  If the weather is rough, short passes will be a must and in that case James White will feast.  I love James White if Burkhead is ruled out.  If Burkhead plays then he becomes a viable option as well because of his low $3,400 price tag.

I typically don’t like to have huge exposure to quarterbacks in the Captain position, especially if they are not active running quarterbacks, but I will have Brady in that spot on some rosters (15-20%).

The Patriots defense has had a historic start to their season and this game is the juiciest of them all.  The Giants offensive line has struggled bad and have allowed the fourth most quarterback hits and the Patriots lead the league in sacks.  They have scored double digit DK points in each of their first five games, including a 25 point and 37 point explosion against the Bills and Dolphins.  Positive game script, at home, with bad weather, against a bad team without any of their good players spells a big night for the defense and I will be making an exception to my no defense in the Captain spot rule by owning them in 10% of my lineups.

Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, and Wayne Gallman are all out.  Golden Tate was upset with his lack of inclusion in the game plan last week.  Tate is easily my favorite option on the Giants this week for several reasons. 1. His complaining should help get him some additional targets, especially with nobody else decent for Jones to throw to.  2.  If the weather is bad, then short, underneath routes will be more prevalent, which is where Tate lives 3.  The leagues best corner right now Stephon Gilmore rarely travels to the slot (its not like Jason McCourty has been a slouch this year, but Gilmore has been world class).

Without Barkley and Gallman the Giants will turn to rookie Jonathan Hilliman for the bulk of the carries and Elijhaa Penny as well.  Neither will likely rack up any significant yardage rushing the football and the Giants will likely be passing most of the time with the negative game script, so I actually prefer Penny for $2,600 less.  He will likely get any carries inside the 10 yard line (if the Giants get there) and should get more targets late in garbage time.

You could also own a few shares of Darius Slayton who will also get some targets, but sledding will be tough with the majority of his coverage by Gilmore.

Cody Latimer could be a decent salary saving punt at only $800.  12 targets the first two games of the season he could get some action with Shepard and Engram out.  The Giants should have plenty of passing attempts, if Latimer can catch a handful of balls he will easily pay off his price.

The punt plays on the Patriots side of the ball will be their tight ends Ryan Izzo ($2,200) and Matt Lacosse ($1,800) with the release of Ben Watson this week.  Lacosse played 73 of 78 snaps for the Patriots last week against Washington and had 1 catch on 4 targets for 22 yards.  Izzo had much less playing time (20 of 78 snaps), but more production with 2 catches for 39 yards and a touchdown.

I do not see any sense in wasting any rosters on the Giants defense or kicker.

UPDATE: An extremely thin play, but one that I will have in a few lineups that I wanted to mention to you is pairing the Patriots defense with Gunner Olszewski .  Gunner returned punts for the Patriots last week against the Redskins and if he were to pop one on Thursday you would get double points.

Here are a few initial lineups I like:

Captain- White, Brady, Edelman, Tate, Patriots D, and Nugent

Captain- Edelman, Brady, White, Patriots, Tate, Latimer

Captain- Michel, Edelman, White, Jones, Tate, Patriots

QB:

Brady $11,800

 

RB:

Michel $7,600

White $6,800

Burkhead $3,400 (***If he plays, be sure to check injury report)

Penny $3,200

 

WR:

Edelman $10,400

Gordon $9,000

Tate $7,000

Slayton $6,000

Latimer $800

 

TE:

Izzo, Lacosse, and possibly Ellison for only $200

 

DEF:

Patriots $6,200