Thursday Night Showdown Slate- Chiefs at Chargers

Lines:

Chiefs (-4) at Chargers

O/U =51

 

DVOA

Chargers against the run #32
Chargers against the pass #9
Chiefs against the run #26
Chiefs against the pass #20

Notes: Chargers won their first meeting in KC 30-24.

 

Favorites:

Patrick Mahomes, $12,000

• The Chiefs are certainly going to want to run the ball in this game as much as they can against the leagues worst run defense. If however the Chargers are putting up points fast and furious like I think they will, Mahomes is going to have to put the ball in the air.
• In their first meeting he threw for 260 yards and 3 TDs.

Tyreek Hill, $11,400

• Offers a monster ceiling, it is just tough fitting him into my rosters. I will own shares, but I will definitely be underweight the field.

Justin Herbert, $10,800

• On an absolute tear lately, Herbert has 11 TDs over his last four games to go along with three 300+ yard passing games.
• In their first meeting he went for 281 yards and 4 TDs.
• Adding to his ceiling is the rushing ability he has shown lately as well with 151 rushing yards over his last four games.
• The Chiefs have been beaten up by opposing QBs all year and have allowed the 6^th most DK points.
• Keenan Allen is expected to return from the covid list, so Herbert will have all his weapons.

Travis Kelce, $8,600

• It has been a rough couple of games for Kelce with only 6/54/0 on 12 targets.
• He had one of his biggest games of the season thus far against the Chargers the first time around (7/104).
• Hill has a higher ceiling, but is also $2,800 more and maybe too tough to get into some lineups.
• I like Kelce to rebound in this game and get into the box at least once.

 

Value:

Mike Williams, $7,400

• Not a bad price for the upside Williams offers. A 7/122/2 explosion in the first game with the Chiefs this season and 6/108/1 in the final game against them last year.
• Has at least 6 targets in each of his last five games.
• Justin Herbert might pick apart this Chiefs secondary and Williams would be a large recipient.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, $7,000

• Since his return from injury in week 11, CEH has been very productive (15.6, 11.2, and 19.2 DK points)
• Darrell Williams still steals carries however, but CEH has at least 10 carries in each game and finding the endzone 3 times.
• The Chargers rank dead last vs the run DVOA and allow the 5^th most DK points per game and he went for 17/100 in the first game.
• CEH increases his floor by his involvement in the passing game, which also does not make him script dependent.

 

Sleepers:

Jalen Guyton, $4,800

• I am not sure Keenan Allen’s return affects Guyton all that much. He is not a high volume guy with or without Allen in the lineup.  What we get with Guyton is big play potential.
• TDs in each of the last two games along with 87 and 90 yards aided by long catches (only 7 catches on 7 targets).
• If we are stacking Herbert with pass catchers, it makes sense to have some Guyton shares.

 

Deep Sleepers:

Byron Pringle, $2,600

• Josh Gordon was put on the covid list and won’t play Thursday, so there is one less person Pringle needs to contend with for targets.
• Hill and Kelce will get the vast majority, but some might filter down to Hardman and Pringle.

Demarcus Robinson, $1,800

• A real deep punt play. You are just hoping a miracle happens and he gets into the endzone.

 

Possible lineups:

C- Herbert, Williams, Guyton, Mahomes, CEH, Pringle

C- CEH, Herbert, Allen, Williams, Kelce, Pringle,

C- Ekeler, Allen, Hill, Kelce, Robinson, D Williams

C- Kelce, Mahomes, Herbert, Allen, Pringle, J Jackson

C- Williams, Herbert, Allen, CEH, Kelce, Pringle

C- CEH, Ekeler, Herbert, Guyton, Hardman, Williams