Thursday Night Showdown Slate- Cowboys @ Saints

Lines:

Cowboys (-4.5) @ Saints

O/U = 47

 

DVOA

Cowboys against the run #18
Cowboys against the pass #4
Saints against the run #1
Saints against the pass #13

 

Notes:

Amari Cooper has been activated off the covid list and expected to be active.

Alvin Kamara still remains questionable and we will have to wait until 90 minutes before game time to see if he is active.

 

Favorites:

Dak Prescott, $11,800

• The Saints are very difficult to run on, so the Cowboys will be forced to be pass heavy.
• Outside of a couple of duds (KC and LAC), Dak has not scored less than 19 DK points in any game. He has his full compliment of weapons at WR for a rare time this season.

CeeDee Lamb, $10,000

• With Cooper and Gallup both healthy, they will occupy the perimeter the majority of the time and Lamb will play the slot. This is especially the case with Cedrick Wilson out.
• Marshawn Lattimore may or may not shadow Cooper, but he almost never plays the slot, which takes him off Lamb. The slot corner for the Saints is PJ Williams, which makes Lambs match-up exceptional.
• Lamb has the highest upside for a Cowboys receiver, in a game where they need to pass, and has the best cornerback match-up.
• He is my favorite play on the slate and should certainly be used heavily in the Captain slot.

Taysom Hill, $9,600

• Getting the start for this game replacing Trevor Siemian.
• Not likely to log many passing attempts, but we get his rushing ability and upside.
• The Saints will scheme to get him carries and especially around the goaline, which makes him necessary to own in this game.

 

Value:

Michael Gallup, $6,800

• It took a while to get going last week, but finally Gallup did and in the end saw 8 targets and caught 5/106.
• Cooper is back, which will likely lower the volume a bit for Gallup. But, we are not sure Cooper is going to be playing the majority of the snaps, given he is coming off having covid.
• Also, Marshawn Lattimore has shadowed Cooper the majority of the time in his last two matchups against him and here were Coopers numbers (2019-shadowed on 25 of his 32 routes and Cooper went 5/48. In 2018 he was shadowed 28 of 32 routes for 8/76).  There is a good chance Lattimore is on Cooper a good share of the time, which is nice for Gallup.

Mark Ingram, $5,000

• A lot depends on whether Kamara plays or not. Likely, even if he does play, he will not get a massive amount of carries and it could be that Ingram still sees the majority.
• If Kamara is ruled out, then Ingram becomes almost an automatic play as he will see just about all the carries.
• Ingram has solid pass catching ability to, so even if the game script turns negative, which it is expected to do, he will be ok.

 

Sleepers:

Tre’Quan Smith, $5,600

• This is a terrific price for the most consistent WR for the Saints.
• 20 targets his last three games to go along with double digit DK points in two of those games.
• The Cowboys just got murdered by Hunter Renfrow in the slot last week and allow the 8^th most DK points to WRs this season.

 

Deep Sleepers:

Ty Montgomery, $3,000

• I like this play so much more if Kamara is out. Montgomery will then get third down duty and quite a bit of the plays in the passing game.
• He had 5 catches for 31 yards last week in Kamara’s absence.
• With an expected negative game script, I love this play if Kamara does not play.

Noah Brown, $600

• If for some reason Cooper is inactive, then I would start Brown in a second, because Wilson is already out.  Even if Cooper plays, but is limited in his return from covid, then Brown becomes an option.
• In Cooper’s absence last week he saw 9 targets (6/53).
• We do not need much production to pay off that price and it would allow us to do so much with our other roster spots.

 

Possible lineups:

C- Prescott, Lamb, Gallup, Ingram, T Smith, Harris

C- Lamb, Prescott, Schultz, Cowboys Def, Ingram, T Smith

C-Lamb, Prescott, Gallup, Schultz, T Smith, Montgomery