Thursday Night Showdown Slate- Jags @ Bengals

Lines:

Jaguars @ Bengals (-7.5)

o/u = 46

 

2020 DVOA

Jaguars against the run #25
Jaguars against the pass #26
Bengals against the run #15
Bengals against the pass #30

 

 

Favorites:

Joe Burrow, $11,600

• I was real high on Burrow coming into the year and barring an injury he is going to smoke the large over 26 TD prop bet that I have on him (already has 7 through the first three games).
• Jags rank 26^th vs the pass DVOA and have given up the 5^th most DK points to QBs.
• Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are clearly on the same page and clicking together again as they did at LSU together. I will stack just about all of my rosters with Burrow and Chase with half as Burrow Captain and the other have with Chase.

 

Ja’Marr Chase, $10,200

• See above
• Already 220 receiving yards and 4 TDs on 16 targets.
• Jags have been lit up by opposing WRs.
• Higgins is out, so Chase becomes easily the best receiving option in this one.

 

Joe Mixon, $11,000

• A smash spot for Mixon who has had 29, 20, and 18 carries in his first three games.(286 yards).
• Jags have given up the 3^rd most DK points to RBs.
• Heavy, home favorite has positive game script.
• A Mixon/Bengals Def stack makes some sense.

 

Marvin Jones, $8,600

• The most targets of the Jags receivers (28). Has caught 17/194/2 in the first three games.
• Clearly has a rapport with Lawrence and the Bengals have given up some points to opposing receivers.
• Already ruled out of this game are important pieces of the Bengals defense in free safety Jessie Bates and corner Chidobe Awuzie.
• Revenge game, hahaha

 

Value:

Tyler Boyd, $7,400

• With Higgins being out it opens up even more targets for Boyd, who has 19 already this season.
• Really nice matchup in the slot vs Chris Claybrooks.

Laviska Shenault, $6,600

• The cheapest of the Jags receivers. Correct game script for him to see plenty of targets.
• Big play ability with a couple key Bengal defensive backs out.

Bengals Defense, $5,600

• Perfect for Bengal onslaught stacks (6-1 or 5-2).
• Trevor Lawrence has thrown a whopping 7 interceptions already this year.
• Bengal D has been solid and scored 5, 6, and 12 DK points, forced 4 TOs and recorded 10 sacks.

 

Sleepers:

Dan Arnold, $4,400

• Just came over from Carolina to fill in for starting tight end James O’Shaughnessy who was put on IR.
• Should get the majority of the snaps as Jacob Hollister was not good last week.
• Big endzone target, and the Jags should be airing it out playing from behind in this game.

CJ Uzomah, $4,000

• A slow start to the season after being on IR almost all of last season (4/39/0 on 5 targets).
• He still played 70% of the plays last week and certainly capable of snagging a TD in this one.

Auden Tate, $400

• Deep sleeper, but played 27 snaps last week in Higgins absence, although only had 1 target.
• Could get more targets in this one and if he can do anything at all, he will be a bargain for $400.

 

Possible lineups:

C-Chase/Burrow/Mixon/Tate/Uzomah/Chark or Shenault

C- Mixon/Bengals/Chase/ M Jones/Arnold/Uzomah

C-Burrow/Chase/Boyd/Shenault/Arnold/Uzomah