Thursday Night Showdown Slate- Jets @ Colts

Lines:

Jets @ Colts (-10.5)

O/U = 46.5

 

DVOA

Colts against the run #1
Colts against the pass #20
Jets against the run #23
Jets against the pass #27

Notes:

Corey Davis is questionable as of right now, which is important to know whether he is playing or not. The Colts have a solid run defense, but are extremely beatable through the air.  Mike White looked good throwing the ball last week against the Bengals (405 yards and 3 TDs).  If Davis plays I will have exposure, but if he is inactive we can bump up Crowder even higher in exposure and include guys like Elijah Moore and even Keelan Cole.

 

Favorites:

Jonathan Taylor, $11,600

• An absolute must own for this slate, Taylor is such a smash spot
• Bellcow back status getting tons of volume (15+ carries/game and 3.5 targets)
• 100+ yards in three of past five games with at least a score in each of the five and 20+ DK points in every one of those as well.
• Jets rush defense has been torched this year allowing the most DK points to opposing backs in the NFL.
• Colts are a 10-point favorite meaning a terrific game script for massive carries for Taylor.

Carson Wentz, $10,800

• Some inexcusable plays resulting in turnovers last week, but in the end his fantasy numbers were good.
• The Colts will be able to easily move the ball against this terrible Jets defense.
• Wentz has thrown at least 2 TDs in each of his last five games.
• Also has the ability to call his own number around the goaline and a rushing TD would be huge for his stat line.

Michael Pittman, $10,200

• Helped me tremendously last week as I had a lot of exposure in my main slate core. Pittman had 30.6 DK points.
• His highest target game last week with 15.
• Jets have allowed the 6^th most yards through the air to opponents this season.
• Will see Brandin Echols and Bryce Hall on the perimeter and have a massive edge.

Mike White, $9,800

• 607 yards and 4 TDs in his two starts, White has shown that he can put up some numbers.
• The Colts secondary is extremely vulnerable with Xavier Rhodes who is washed up, Kenny Moore, and Rock Ya Sin who I always like to target. They have allowed the 8^th most DK points to opposing QBs.
• In a game that is predicted to have the Colts leading, the Jets will have to air it out and White could have some big numbers.

 

Value:

Jamison Crowder, $7,800

• When Crowder is healthy he generally gets a large dose of targets (9,6,6,and 9 in his four games)
• Crowder plays primarily in the slot where he will see coverage from Kenny Moore, which is a very positive match-up for Crowder.
• Negative game script can result in close to double digit targets.

Elijah Moore, $6,200  * If Corey Davis is out

• 6 targets in each of the last two games in Davis’s absence
• Good matchups against bad Colts corners
• Game script is good for targets

 

Sleepers:

Ty Johnson, $6,400

• Michael Carter is the primary back and will get the majority of the carries, but as we saw last week when the Jets were in comeback mode against the Bengals throwing the ball, Johnson was the man.
• With the Jets trailing most of the time this time Johnson is getting a lot of targets and 13 in the last two games, which have resulted in 11 receptions for 136 yards and a score.
• If we are building rosters based upon the spread and predicted game script, we would have the Colts getting ahead and the Jets throwing the ball in comeback mode, which would feed exactly into Johnson.

 

Deep Sleepers:

Keelan Cole, $2,400  * Only if Corey Davis is out.

• 5 targets in Davis’s absence last week (3/25) and had a TD whipped away after review.
• Could see 5+ targets with this game script.

 

Possible lineups:

C- Taylor, Wentz, Pascal, Cox, Moore, Cole

C- Taylor, Wentz, Pittman, Cox, Cole, Mims

C- White, Taylor, Crowder, Moore, Cox, Badgeley