Thursday Night Showdown Slate- Patriots @ Falcons

Lines:

Patriots (-6.5) @ Falcons

O/U = 47

DVOA

Pats against the run #13
Pats against the pass #5
Falcons against the run #22
Falcons against the pass #30

Notes:

Rhamondre Stevenson exploded last week for 100 yards rushing and 2 TDs on 20 carries.  Keep in mind that Damien Harris was out last week and Stevenson became the bellcow.  Harris is back for Thursday nights game.  It is unclear who will get more carries of the two, but it would be hard to imagine Stevenson getting 20 carries, including all the goaline looks with Harris back.

It is unclear whether Cordarrelle Patterson is going to play in this game.  It likely won’t be know until 90 minutes before kick-off.  Patterson has not been game script dependent as he has shown ability rushing the ball and catching it out of the backfield.  With the Falcons being a home underdog it might actually be a better game flow for him to score DK points.  I obviously like Patterson for a one game slate given he has pretty much been the only consistent member of the Falcons offense.  If he plays, then get him in your lineups, but make sure you see the injury report.  If he is out then Wayne Gallman becomes an interesting play.  Mike Davis has kind of fallen out of favor with the Falcons and in the blow-out loss last week in Dallas, Gallman rushed 15 times for 55 yards.  It will be interesting to see if he gets the majority of the carries in this game if Patterson is out.  If you build a Patriot onslaught lineup, then Gallman would make sense, because he was the main guy when they were getting blown out last week.

 

Favorites:

Mac Jones, $10,600

• After the first few weeks of the season, Jones has actually been quite good. He has 8 TDs the last five games, including 3 last week.
• The Falcons are 3^rd worst in the NFL vs the pass DVOA.

Cordarrelle Patterson, $10,200 (If healthy)

Damien Harris, $8,800

• Missed last week’s game, but had scored a TD in each of the five games prior to that.
• Sees a minimum of 14 carries a game and is the Pats main goaline guy.
• Falcons have struggled against the run, allowing the 4^th most DK points to opposing RBs.

Jakobi Meyers, $8,000

• The best and most targeted Patriot receiver is only $8,000 this week, which is a bit surprising.
• His stat lines usually end up being 4-5 catches for 40 yards. Last week he scored his first TD.
• Has a nice slot match-up against Avery Williams.

 

Value:

Hunter Henry $7,000

• Henry has become the go-to look in the redzone for the Patriots, seeing 12 targets and catching 7 of them for TDs this season.
• He has seen 14 targets the last four weeks, which is not a crazy amount, but his TD upside in a single game slate is big.

 

Sleepers:

Patriots Defense, $5,600

• On fire lately scoring double digit DK points in four straight games.
• The spread has them as a big favorite, which presents a good game script for their defense.
• They are getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks and have 11 sacks the last 4 weeks.
• They should be a part of your onslaught Patriot lineups.

Olamide Zaccheaus, $5,400

• A monster week two weeks ago against the Saints with 2 TDs and 20.8 DK points.
• Last week he actually saw more volume with 7 targets (although he only caught 2 balls).
• The Falcons are an underog and game script should have them throwing the ball a lot.
• Good price for the possibly upside.

 

Deep Sleepers:

Nelson Agholor, $5,000

• I hardly ever like Agholor no matter the slate, because of his low ceiling, but he has the best match-up of the Pats WRs.
• He plays on the left side nearly 70% of the time and that is where the Falcons weakest corner, Fabian Moreau plays 95% of the time.
• It might be worth a few shares of Agholor on your Jones teams.

 

Possible lineups:

C- Harris, Pats D, Jones, Agholor, Gallman (if Patterson is out), Henry

C- Harris, Patterson (If he plays), Zaccheaus, Pats, Henry, Stevenson

C- Jones, Meyers, Harris, Agholor, Gage, Pats