Thursday Night Showdown Slate- Patriots @ Rams

To read the entire article, become a premium member of Football Insider Edge by clicking here, or on the JOIN NOW button on the homepage

 

Patriots @ Rams (-5.5), Game Total = 44.5

DVOA

Patriots against the run #28
Patriots against the pass #21
Rams against the run #9
Rams against the pass #5

In what looks like a struggle between a couple solid defenses, we have a low game total and some difficult match-ups for stars.  Before we dive in I want to make sure you are separating the Patriots defense from the first eight games of the season and the Patriots defense over the last four games, because it has been a night and day difference.  The fantasy points, DVOA, and yards given up over the course of the season would have you believe that the Rams offense was going to trounce them, but take a look at the points given up over their last four- 17, 27, 17, and 0.  Now look at the opposing starting quarterbacks in those games- Lamar Jackson, DeShaun Watson, Kyler Murray, and Justin Herbert.  As PGA golfers say all the time, they have definitely found something.

Jared Goff is coming off of a solid 350 yard effort where he threw for a touchdown and ran one in against the Cardinals.  As I mentioned, the Pats have handled opposing quarterbacks well the last several weeks, so Goff’s ceiling looks to be lower than his 27 DK point outburst last week.  With that being said, Goff’s production against “good” pass defenses has been surprisingly good this year with 300 yards and 2 tds against Washington, 220 and 2 against the Bears, and 376 and 3 against the Bucs.  It is a showdown slate, so we have to have some exposure and I like Goff more than Newton in this game, so I will own him on half my rosters and 10% in the Captain spot.

Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are easily the highest targeted Rams pass catchers.  There is not really a weakness in the Pats secondary as all three cornerbacks-Stephon Gilmore, J.C Jackson, and Jonathan Jones all rate out similarly.  I would give the slight edge to Woods as he is slightly cheaper and both his production and targets have been more the last three games, although it is very close.  Josh Reynolds seems to have lost his full-time #3 receiver slot.  Last week Van Jefferson out snapped Reynolds 48% to 46% and had 5 targets to Reynolds 1.  That makes Jefferson a very interesting low dollar option at only $2,600.

The Pats have been stingy against the tight end position as they usually are (5^th least fantasy points to tight ends).  Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett essentially split time, which makes it difficult to pick one.   Over the last three games Higbee has 12 targets vs Everett’s 14.  Last week Everett had 7 targets and played 72% of the snaps and Higbee had 6 targets and played 84% of the Rams snaps.

If you think the Rams tight ends are tough to choose from, how about the three headed monster in the Rams backfield? Cam Akers took the clear lead role last week with 21 carries (vs Henderson and Brown who each had only 3 a piece) of which he only turned into 72 yards, although he did get into the endzone.  A couple things have me not totally convinced that Akers will get such a massive amount more of carries than Henderson and Brown this week. 1) Henderson was injured in the second quarter last week, and although he did return in the second half, he missed some time.  2) Akers has been dealing with a shoulder injury this week and did not practice on Monday.  He was a limited participant on Tuesday, but Sean McVay might error on the side of caution and cut back his carries.  In my estimation, Akers will still lead the Rams backs in carries, but that 21 number will be cut down closer to 13-15, while Henderson’s carries will increase to 8-10.  I don’t see a catalyst for Brown as his ceiling remains low.

Cam Newton is listed as questionable, but is expected to play.  His value comes from his rushing ability as he has rushed for a whopping 11 touchdowns this season. His passing ability has much to be desired throwing for less than 200 yards in eight games this year.  He will likely get a rushing touchdown, but I am not sure he will approach the number of yards rushing that he has this year as the Rams have limited opposing quarterbacks to only 15.1 rushing yards per game.  With the game script likely being negative for the Pats, there is very little offense that could be generated outside of Newton, so I will have exposure, although I will likely be underweight the field.

I always talk about building around a particular game script and that becomes essential when deciding upon which (if any) Pats runningbacks to roster.  Damien Harris has caught only four passes this entire season and we know Sony Michel does not catch passes out of the backfield, so if we believe the Pats will be playing from behind, James White becomes the obvious choice.  If however you are building around a positive game script for the Pats, then you would want to own Harris or Michel because White has only 26 carries this entire season.  This really makes it easy for us to build our rosters accordingly.

The Rams secondary has been tough and Jalen Ramsey has put his clamps down on most opposing receivers he has tangled with.  It is unclear as to if he will shadow or not in this game.  He can venture to the slot as well as play on the perimeter, and I would estimate he will spend most of his time on Jakobi Meyers who continues to see the most volume with Edelman out.  His last three games have been duds (6.8, 10.2, and 3.5 DK points) so with the tough match-up I am not super high on him.  Damiere Byrd usually sees a deep ball or two per game, so for $800 we could take a shot. He is far from a high volume guy, but has actually seen 18 balls over the last three games.  Nothing wrong with that amount of targets for such a cheap price.

With the game total as low as it is combined with how turnover prone Goff and Newton can be, it brings both defenses into the mix.  I will be owning between 20-25% of each.

Must Haves:

Goff $11,000

Newton $10,600

Kupp $9,600

Woods $9,200

 

Favorite players for the price:

Henderson $7,400

White $6,400

Rams $4,400

Pats $4,200

 

Low Dollar Options:

Jefferson $2,600

Byrd $800

 

Best Correlating Plays/Stacks:

Goff/Woods/White/Rams

Newton/Harris/Pats/Henderson

[/membership