Thursday Night Showdown Slate- Rams @ Seahawks

Lines:

Rams (-2.5) @ Seattle

o/u = 54.5

 

2020 DVOA

Rams against the run #22
Rams against the pass #17
Seahawks against the run #17
Seahawks against the pass #27

 

I am typically a huge fan of rostering DK Metcalf because of his redzone presence and big play ability.  I am a little concerned that Jalen Ramsey might be shadowing him for the majority of this game, which he did in all three match-ups last season.  Metcalf was really held in check in the two regular season games (2/28/0 and 6/59/0).  He was good in the playoff game (5/96/2) but some of that cam in garbage time.  It is not a certainty that Ramsey will shadow him as he has barely done any of that this season, including against DeAndre Hopkins.  I still kind of favor Metcalf over Lockett, who tends to not show up at all in most games and go nuts in a few games a year.

 

Favorites:

Russell Wilson, $11,800

• 22+ DK points in three of his four games and 9 TDs.
• The Rams have been lit up by both Kyler Murray and Tom Brady the last two weeks and have given up the 8^th most passing yards.

Matthew Stafford, $11,400

• Seahawks are 6^th worst vs the pass DVOA.
• 11 TDs in four games and 20+ DK points in three of four. Likely are going to have to make a decision between owning Wilson or Stafford. Whoever you choose, be sure to stack a couple pass catchers and build around a game script.

DK Metcalf, $10,200

• Only slightly more expensive than Tyler Lockett, so I like him more. If I knew Ramsey would for sure not be on him the majority of the time, I would absolutely love him here.  I have to own him, lets just hope Ramsey sticks to one side.
• A whopping 28 targets the last three weeks and a TD in each of the last two (3 of 4 games).

Darryl Henderson, $8,400

• I don’t love the fact he is dealing with a nagging rib injury and is on short rest, but he returned to his bellcow back status last week and had 116 yards rushing and receiving and 5 catches.
• The Seahawks are so incredibly awful at stopping the run this season and have given up the most DK points to RBs in the NFL.
• Slight favorite in the game and should have a positive game script to run the ball.

 

Value:

Robert Woods, $7,600

• Kupp is clearly Stafford’s favorite, but he is $4,800 more than Woods for this slate.
• Woods does have 21 targets the last three weeks and 2 TDs this season. I like the match-ups on the perimeter for the Rams in this game.
• He has been the forgotten man so far this season, but still provides some upside in a high scoring game.

Van Jefferson, $4,800

• Previously Jefferson was more of a boom/bust type of play, but his playing time and volume have increased (46 of 68 snaps and 6 targets last game).
• Two TDs on the year and 80 yards in game 1 and 90 yards last week.
• Really nice matchup on the perimeter vs DJ Reed and Sidney Jones.

 

Sleepers:

Gerald Everett, $4,000

• REVENGE GAME!!! (I always love that)
• He has been on the covid list, but he tested negative on Monday and is expected to be activated. If he is not active, then obviously do not roster him, but if he does play, I think he might get overlooked as people see the big Q next to his name
• In week 3 he caught all five of his targets for 54 yards.

Alex Collins, $3,200

• Chris Carson is struggling with a neck injury and highly questionable. If he is out, then Collins is a must play.  Even if Carson is active, Collins could get more usage than normal and likely wont be heavily owned.  Could see a goal line look as well.

 

Possible lineups:

C- Metcalf/Wilson/Henderson/Everett/Jefferson/Higbee

C-Woods/Stafford/Jefferson/Collins/Metcalf/Henderson

C-Henderson/Wilson/Metcald/Everett/Woods/Collins