Thursday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 14: NE @ PIT

Thursday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 14: NE @ PIT

Lines:

O/U: 30.0

Steelers, –6.0

2023 DVOA:

NE: Defense Against the Run: #2 (2023–7th fewest yards allowed per game at 94.1 yards; 2022–7th fewest yards allowed per game at 105.5 yards).

NE: Defense Against the Pass: #23

PIT: Defense Against the Run: #15 (2023–12th most yards allowed per game at 118.4 yards; 2022–9th fewest yards allowed per game at 108.1 yards).

PIT: Defense Against the Pass: #6

2022 Games:

Week 2:

O/U: 40.0; NE, -3; Actual-NE 17, PIT 14

Noteworthy Scorers:

QB: M. Jones/13.68; Trubisky/12.42.

RB: D. Harris/16.7; N. Harris/13.9; Stevenson/6.1; Warren/2.5.

WR: Agholor/26; Meyers/18.5; D. Johnson/13.7; Claypool/6.6.

TE: Freiermuth/12.2.

K: Boswell/8; Folk/5.

D/ST: NE/8; PIT/3.

Perfect Lineup: Agholor, Jones, D. Harris, Meyers, / Trubisky, N. Harris

Thoughts:

I’m optimistic that for as ugly as this game looks on paper it may turn out to be a decent slate to play. The Patriots have allowed 10 or fewer points in 3 straight games. The Steelers have scored 16 offensive touchdowns in 12 games. The Steelers looked lost after their 3rd starting ILB of the season got injured last week and seems unlikely to play here. The two teams offensively scored 49 combined in their last 3 games, while allowing 73. I believe the prime time under trend could hit again here. I think the Steelers have too many offensive weapons available to lose here, so the real question is whether the Patriots have enough to keep it close and possibly cover? I hate that 30 number so much, my answer might change at 31. I’ll call it 16-10, Steelers.

Captain’s Picks/Heavy Usage:

$9,400/Ezekiel Elliott – The Steelers have allowed the 14th most DK points to opposing RBs so far this season at 22.5 points per game. Elliott turned 21 touches into 92 yards from scrimmage and 13.2 DK points last week, while staying on the field for 69% of the snaps and 59% of the rushing attempts. A similar outlook could be in store in a short week with Stevenson out again.

$9,200/Mitch Trubisky – The Patriots have allowed the 6thfewest DK points to opposing QB so far this season at 15.1 points per game on an average 1:.5 TD/INT ratio. Still, facing a defense allowing a bottom 5 passing TD rate against could prove a challenge. In 10 appearances as a Steeler, Trubisky is completing 64% of his passes, but sports a 6:7 TD/INT ratio. As a threat to potentially run with his legs, comes in with a higher floor and ceiling than Zappe, but anything more than the mid-teens as a final DK point total would be a gift.

$8,000/Jaylen Warren – In an almost 50/50 split over the season thus far, Warren is averaging 11.7 touches and 70.3 yards from scrimmage, while scoring in double-digit DK points in 7 of 12 games. The secondary stats are where he shines as he is averaging 3.54 yards after contact per attempt and has seen more than 18% of his runs gained 10 or more yards on the season. Should the Patriots continue to be fierce against run in this game, Warren’s true appeal may come as the preferred pass catching back option in the Steelers offense.

$6,600/Steelers D/ST – Their highest salary of the season and one of the more expensive D/STs I can recall seeing this season, I am willing to invest in them heavily as a 6-point home favorite facing a team with all kinds of offensive question marks. The Patriots have allowed the 4th most DK points to opposing D/ST units so far this season. The unit has scored in double-digit DK points in 5 games this season. They have held opponents to 20 points or fewer in 8 games this season, including 6 of their last 7. Additionally, the unit has an INT in 9 games and has multiple sacks in 9 games as well as multiple DFRs in 3 games. Banged, Battered, and Bruised, the unit has a whole still has plenty of ways to generate points to anchor your lineups.

 

Moderate Usage:

$10,000/George Pickens – Has seen at least 5 targets in 6 of his last 7 games and eclipsed double-digit DK points in 2 of the 7 games. With Johnson’s existing chemistry with Johnson, we will see if a few extra practices in a short week could benefit Pickens here. The overall upside is too great to fade completely, but for $200 less, I strongly prefer Johnson here, especially considering the overall body of work from the Steelers offense this season.

$9,800/Diontae Johnson – In 9 games with Trubisky as QB since the beginning of last year, Johnson is averaging 9 targets per game. The Patriots run man coverage roughly 1/3rd of the time and Johnson is carrying a target share of better than 36% against man since the start of last season. The Patriots are allowing the 12th most DK points to opposing WR units so far this season at 36.9 points per game. Johnson has scored in double-digit DK points in 4 of his last 7 games.

$9,000/Bailey Zappe – The Steelers have allowed the 7th fewest DK points to opposing QBs so far this season at 15.3 points per game on an average 1:1 TD/INT ratio. The Steelers are allowing the 2nd lowest completion percentage to opposing QBs and with Zappe completing 16% of his passes last week behind the line of scrimmage last week, tough sledding could be in store. Still, the Steelers have given up an average of 244.3 yards to opposing QBs so far this season and anything closer to that for Zappe this week with some of sort of TD, could make him an intriguing and under the radar type of play that many may shy away from.

$8,400/Najee Harris – Will he play, or won’t he? I’m going to thread the needle a bit and assume he does, but perhaps Warren ends up seeing a bit more work in this matchup because I believe the Steelers can win here with or without him. The Patriots have allowed the 15th fewest DK points to opposing RB units at 20.1 points per game. Additionally, they are holders of the lowest rate so far this season of runs against them to go for 10 or more yards at just 6.2%. With the Patriots having allowed 106.67 yards from scrimmage to opposing RB units so far this season, should the Steelers continue with their near 50-50 split between Harris and Warren, it might be hard for both return elite value here unless they both score a TD, or one ends up playing more than the other. Of course, on this slate, good value might be all you need to cash well with any of your DFS entries.

$5,400/Chris Boswell – Scored 8 DK points in the matchup for the Patriots last season and that feels like a good number for him against here, especially with the switch back to Trubisky behind center. The Patriots have allowed the 14th most DK points to opposing kickers so far this season. Boswell has scored at least 8 DK points in 7 games so far this season.

$5,000/Patriots D/ST – The Steelers have allowed the 10thfewest DK points to opposing D/ST so far this season. Having held opponents to 20 or fewer points in 7 games, scored multiple sacks in 7 games, and recorded a DFR or an INT in 6 games, the floor seems sturdy, but having scored 8 or more DK points in just 3 games, the ceiling might not be as high as you want it.

$3,600/JuJu Smith-Schuster – The Steelers have allowed the 11th most yards and 16th most DK points to opposing WR units so far this season at 34.7 points per game. Has only surpassed 30 yards receiving in 2 games this season. His salary is flexible enough to give you exposure to the Patriots passing game and working from the slot against one of his former teams, I would expect him to turn in one of his better games of the season here.

 

The Rest (Lighter Usage):

$7,400/Pat Freiermuth – With the Steelers having made more of an effort to target the middle of the field over their last 2 games, Freiermuth’s has seen his target share vault to 24% in that stretch, a mark we were more accustomed to seeing last year. The Patriots have allowed just 1 TD and the 4th fewest DK points to opposing TE units so far this season at 8.5 points per game.

$5,600/DeVante Parker – I think it’s more likely than not that Parker plays, but perhaps no better than 60/40 as I write this Thursday AM. Parker saw 36% of the targets last week from Zappe and finished with double-digit DK points for just the 2ndtime this season. He is a guy you want in your lineup, but the question is how healthy he may or may not be coming in.

$5,200/Hunter Henry – The Steelers have allowed the 13thfewest DK points to opposing TE units so far this season at 11.6 points per game. Hasn’t surpassed 60 yards receiving in a game all season and double-digit point efforts have only come in weeks with a TD. Saw 16% of Zappe’s targets last week.

$4,600/Chad Ryland – The Steelers have allowed the 15thfewest DK points to opposing kickers so far this season. The sputtering offense has done nothing for his opportunities as he has attempted just one FG in each of the last 2 weeks. I would expect a change for the positive this week in what is forecast as a defensive struggle, but the floor and ceiling here and lower than other similarly priced options for both teams.

$3,400/Tyquan Thornton – Has seen just 13 targets all seasonwith just 5 catches from them. He is forecast to be the WR3 for the game and line up on the perimeter. Played 80% of the snaps last week and would expect more of the same here.

$1,200/Mike Gesicki – Was out snapped by Brown last week, but in a game where the Patriots should need pass catching help, I’ll take a stab at them dusting off Gesicki and perhaps him connecting on a couple of targets. Still probably needs a TD to pay off, so it’s probably not more than a dart throw or two in a larger set of lineup builds.

$200/JaMycal Hasty – The expectation here would be that Zeke dominates the carries, but there should be some available for Montgomery and/or Hasty. He didn’t play last week, but I would be shocked if he didn’t see at least a few carries here and as a minimum salary play, he wouldn’t have to do much to return value, but considering the rest of the slate, the question is do you need him?

$200/Connor Heyward – With multiple targets in 9 games so far this season and an offensive approach back towards involving the TE more, I like the idea of Heyward returning some value here, even with Freiermuth seemingly healthy, especially after a 0-point effort last week.

 

Combos to Consider:

C: Elliott, Zappe, Parker / Trubisky, Steelers D/ST, Boswell

C: Elliott, Patriots D/ST / Trubisky, Warren, Steelers D/ST, Boswell

C: Trubisky, Harris, Warren, Steelers D/ST / Elliott, Smith-Schuster

C: Trubisky, Warren, Boswell, Steelers D/ST / Elliott, Parker

C: Warren, Trubisky, Freiermuth, Steelers D/ST, Boswell / Elliott

C: Warren, Trubisky, Boswell / Zappe, Elliott, Patriots D/ST

C: Steelers D/ST, Trubisky, Warren / Zappe, Elliott, Smith-Schuster

C: Steelers D/ST, Trubisky, Harris, Warren / Zappe, Patriots D/ST

 

That is, it from here. Do not forget to track the NFL Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!

–Nik (@MrGuruNick)