Thursday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 15: LAC @ LV

Thursday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 15: LAC @ LV

Lines:

O/U: 34.5

Raiders, -3.0

2023 DVOA:

LAC: Defense Against the Run: #22 (2023–16th most yards allowed per game at 113.3 yards; 2022–6th most yards allowed per game at 144.2 yards).

LAC: Defense Against the Pass: #25

LV: Defense Against the Run: #23 (2023–8th most yards allowed per game at 127.4 yards; 2022–14th most yards allowed per game at 122.8 yards).

LV: Defense Against the Pass: #12

2023 Games:

Week 4:

O/U: 49.0; LAC, –6; Actual-LAC 24, LV 17.

Noteworthy Scorers:

QB: Herbert/24.38; O’Connell/12.82.

RB: Jacobs/27.9; Kelley/6.5; Spiller/4.7; Abdullah/3.4.

WR: Adams/15.5; Allen/12.2; Palmer/10.7; D. Davis/8.7; Meyers/5.3.

TE:

K: Dicker/6; Carlson/5.

D/ST: LAC/14.

Perfect Lineup: Jacobs, Adams, O’Connell / Herbert, Chargers D/ST, D. Davis

Thoughts:

I am the first guy to play to get excited about what profiles as a bad game, because it frequently turns into a great slate. I applaud anybody that gets this one right well in advance as there are more question marks this far out than I can remember this season. The slate revolves around whether Josh Jacobs plays (and I believe he does not) and who might be the Raiders QB (I assume at least O’Connell starts the game. Whether he finishes remains to be seen) for the game. Figure those out, adjust accordingly, and things seem to fall into place. I have taken that stance with the article. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Keep that in mind when absorbing the below.

The Chargers and Raiders are both 10-3 to the under this season. The Raiders have not scored more than 17 points in their last 4 games. The Chargers scored 36 points in the last 3 full games with Herbert. A backup QB on a short week vs. a QB on a potential short leash. I will take the under and call it 16-13, Raiders.

Captain’s Picks/Heavy Usage:

$11,200/Davante Adams – If there is a concern it is that he has scored only 4 TDs all season, but he comes into the game with 9 double-digit DK-point games out of 12 played. In games with AOC behind center, Adams has averaged 10+ targets and carries a 30%+ target share. He may not get there with the TDs in this game, but I am willing to rely on the yardage as he is averaging 66 per game on the season and the Chargers have allowed the 5thmost to opposing WR units so far this season.

$11,000/Austin Ekeler – With the Raiders allowing near a TD per game and the 8th most DK points to opposing RB units at 24.7 points per game, Ekeler should be on your radar and even more so considering, historically, he has assumed some of Allen’s touches when he has been out. The concern may be what happens with Stick under center, but with the Raiders allowing the 7th most runs in the league against them to gain 10 or more yards and stuffing 1 in 8 runs against them at or behind the line of scrimmage, I would expect him to get the ball early and often.

$6,200/Joshua Palmer – Would have loved to see Palmer get a week with Allen and/or Herbert, but here were with Stick behind center and Palmer as the de-facto #1 this week. Palmer has notplayed since Week 8, but in the 8 games he played this season he landed in double-digits 4 times and has done his best Allen-impression before with success. The Raiders have allowed the 10th fewest DK points to opposing WR units so far this season at 31.7 points per game.

$3,000/Zamir White – What happens if Jacobs does not play? The matchup favors Abdullah a little more, but White still gets more of the carries here. He has been feeding Jacobs the ball and trying via a strong running game and solid defensive play. The Chargers are allowing the 9th most DK points to opposing RB units so far this season at 24.6 points per game. At this salary, even if he is more of the RB2 he still has a strong chance to return strong value, but should he assume a Jacobs-like role, he ends up in the optimal lineup.

 

Moderate Usage:

$9,600/Aidan O’Connell – Holds a 3:5 TD/INT ratio over his last 5 starts and has not eclipsed 14 points this season. The Chargers have allowed the 4th most yards per pass attempt and 7thmost DK points to opposing QBs so far this season at 20.6 points per game. Will the HC let him air it out more if Jacobs does not play? Can still get there with short TD passes. Favor Stick over AOC but cannot ignore AOC with Adams in the lineup even if the recent results have been lackluster.

$9,400/Easton Stick – The Raiders have allowed the 7th fewest DK points to opposing QBs so far this season at 15.5 points per game. Stick scored 6.2 DK points last week stepping for Herbert on a line of 13 of 24 for 179 yards. Opposing QB’s have completed 67% of their passes against the Raiders this season, but less than 10% of the passes against them have traveled 10+ yards. Stick averaged less than 10 yards per attempt over his final two seasons in college but did run for 29 TDs over that same stretch. Slightly better production with a full game to play and a TD should leave him with a mid-teens final total and more than worthy of line-up inclusion.

$8,600/Jakobi Meyers – Was more of a favorite with Jimmy G than AOC, as he is averaging just a 16% target share. Has scored at least 15 DK points in 6 games this season. The Chargers have allowed the 8th most DK points to opposing WR units so far this season at 39.1 points per game.

$5,200/Gerald Everett – The Raiders have allowed the 9th most catches and the 15th fewest DK points to opposing TE units so far this season at 11.8 points per game. Has reached double-digit DK points in 3 games, but those are 3 games in which he caught TD passes. With Everett running a route on a season-high percentage of drop backs last week, I like his chances here to catch his 4th TD pass of the season here.

$4,400/Chargers D/ST – With the Chargers having multiple sacks in 5 of their last 6 games, an attractive matchup suddenly got that much better with the Raiders, ruling out their LT and C for the game. The Raiders have allowed the 8th most DK points to opposing D/ST units so far this season. The Chargers D/ST scored 14 in the Week 4 victory.

$4,200/Raiders D/ST – The Chargers have allowed the 5thfewest DK points to opposing D/ST units so far this season. The Raiders D/ST has scored at least 8 DK points in 6 of their last 8 games. The unit scored 4 points in the Week 4 loss to the Chargers, but with no Herbert and Allen here, I would expect the final DK tally to improve here, regardless of outcome.

 

The Rest (Lighter Usage):

$5,400/Quentin Johnson – Scored in double-digit DK points in 4 of his last 7 games. Produced a 1/18 line for 3 targets in the Week 4 victory. Has surpassed 50 receiving yards in each of his last 2 games. Was 4th in targets from Stick in last week’s game.

$5,000/Cameron Dicker – The Raiders have allowed the 12thmost DK points to opposing kickers so far this season. Dicker scored 6 points in the Week 4 victory over the Raiders. Dicker has scored at least 8 DK points in 6 games this season. With the expectation that both offenses could struggle a bit here, would expect a slight uptick in FG opportunities.

$4,800/Ameer Abdullah – Abdullah has had multiple carries in just one game this season but has seen multiple targets in 5 games. The Chargers are allowing the most targets, 2nd most receptions, and 2nd most receiving yards to opposing RB units so far this season.

$4,600/Daniel Carlson – Has scored 8 or more DK points in just 4 games this season. As the Raiders offense has struggled this season, Carlson is one of the Raiders that have suffered the most after last season’s 1st Team All-Pro honors. The Chargers have allowed the 10th fewest DK points to opposing kickers so far this season. Carlson scored 5 in the Week 4 loss to the Chargers. With the expectation that both offenses could struggle a bit here, would expect a slight uptick in FG opportunities.

$4,000/Hunter Renfrow – Has seen 4 targets and scored at least 6.6 DK points in each of the last 3 games, while reclaiming the WR3 role.

$3,200/Michael Mayer – The Chargers are allowing the 6th most receptions and yards as well as the 9th most DK points to opposing TE units so far this season at 13.6 points per game. Over the last 6 games, Mayer has run a route on more than 2/3rdof drop backs. He has eclipsed 50 yards or secured a TD in just 2 games this season.

$2,800/Donald Parham, Jr. – Suspect it is 50/50 that he plays with a shoulder injury, but should he make the roster for the game, he serves as a big target for Stick, especially in short yardage and goal line situations for Stick.

$1,000/Alex Erickson – After seeing 7 targets last week against the Broncos and with 3 of those from Stick, worth consideration, especially with no Keenan Allen and likely to serve as the WR3.

 

Combos to Consider:

C: Adams, Mayer, White / Ekeler, Stick, Palmer

C: Adams, O’Connell, Raiders D/ST, White / Stick, Palmer

C: Ekeler, Palmer / Adams, Raiders D/ST, Mayer, White

C: Ekeler, Palmer, Chargers D/ST / Adams, Meyers, White

C: Palmer, Ekeler, Stick / Adams, Raiders D/ST, White

C: Palmer, Ekeler, Stick, Chargers D/ST / Adams, White

C: White, Adams, O’Connell, Raiders D/ST / Ekeler, Stick

C: White, O’Connell, Meyers / Ekeler, Stick, Palmer

 

That is, it from here. Do not forget to track the NFL Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!

–Nik (@MrGuruNick)