Thursday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 2: BUF @ MIA

Thursday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 2: BUF @ MIA

Lines:

O/U: 48.5

Dolphins, -2.5

 

2023/2024 DVOA: (Will use 2023’s marks for the first 4 weeks of the season before fully converting to 2024 as of Week 5)

 

BUF: Defense Against the Run: #17 (2023-15^th fewest yards allowed per game at 112.2 yards; 2022-6^th fewest yards allowed per game at 104.8 yards).

BUF: Defense Against the Pass: #9

 

MIA: Defense Against the Run: #16 (2023-7th fewest yards allowed per game at 99.8 yards; 2022-4^th fewest yards allowed per game at 103.2 yards).

MIA: Defense Against the Pass: #22

 

2023 Review:

 

The Bills and Dolphins played twice last season: Week 4 and Week 18.

 

Week 4: The Bills won 48-20 where the O/U was 52.5 and the Bills were favored by 3.

Optimal: Allen, Diggs, Davis, Bass // Achane, Berrios

 

Week 18: The Bills won 21-14 where the O/U was 47.5 and the Bills were favored by 2.5.

Optimal: Allen, Diggs, Shakir, Sherfield, Kincaid // Hill

 

Takeaways from the 2 Games:

• Allen averaged 34.28 DK points in the 2 games, while Tua averaged 12.3 points.
• Achane played in both games last year while averaging 21.55 DK points. The 2^nd RB was different in each game and combined averaged 5.5 DK points. Ingold played in each game like Achane and was not much of a factor. From the Bills, Cook played in both games while averaging 11.45 DK points. The 2^nd and 3^rd RBs were not much of a factor and were different in each of the two games.
• The Bills not having a dominant WR like Diggs is the biggest difference this year as he averaged 27.35 in the 2 games. The WR3 and WR4 averaged 8.1 and 5.6 DK points in the 2 games and were the same in each, but neither are here this year. The WR2 averaged 17.3 in the 2 games last year and Shakir served as the WR2 in the finale, but not in the first game. Now on the side of the Dolphins, Hill played in both games and averaged 15.7 DK points. Berrios played in both games as the WR3 and went for 17.4 DK points in one of the games, leaving the WR3 position with a 10.1 DK point average. Waddle only played one of the two games. The WR2 by salary (including the game Waddle did not play) averaged 6.0 DK points. The WR4 position was not a factor in either game.
• There appears to be opportunities for both Kincaid and Knox as they played in both games last year while averaging 11.05 and 6.2 points, respectively. Smythe served as the TE1 for the Dolphins in both games and averaged 7.05 DK points. As TE2 this go round, there could be some value, or Smith will assume his averages here.
• The Bills were the superior defense over the 2 games, with a 10.5 DK points per game average beating the Dolphins average by 5 points. Bass excelled in one of the two games and had an 8.5 points per game average as a kicker; however, Sanders fell flat in both games and Bass only scored 3 in the Week 18 victory.

 

Thoughts:

I am going to call it 28-21, Bills. For me it all comes down to records. Allen is 10-2 vs Miami. Tua was 1-6 vs Buffalo. The banged up running game in Miami should force Tua to throw and I am not convinced he has that defense figured out just yet. The offense is still capable of big plays, and I am sure we will see some in the game. The Bills are more run-centric these days and I think they can take it do Miami when they need and/or want to, via the ground or the air. And remember this is all done Wednesday PM/Early Thurs AM, and this could all change if Achane does not play, so make sure to watch the inactive list before the game.

 

Captain’s Picks/Heavy Usage:

$11,600/Tyreek Hill – Averaged 15.7 DK points in the two games last season and has a career line of 5.6/62.2/0.4 in 5 games against a McDermott-led Bills Defense. Still, he ranked 1^st in the league last season with 35 receptions of 25+ yards and that big play potential will always make him a huge threat. With 12 targets in last week’s game and a 7/130/1 receiving line for 29 DK points, he seems primed for another big effort here especially if they attempt to work him in closer to the line of scrimmage to offset any potential deficiencies if Achane joins Mostert on the inactive list.

$11,000/Josh Allen – In 5 games against a Mike McDaniel-coached team, Allen has averaged 32.72 DK points. Allen averaged 32.2 DK points last week in the opener, throwing for 2 TDs and rushing for another 2 himself. Allen has averaged 9 rushing attempts per game in those 5 games, while eclipsing 47 yards on the ground in 4 of those 5 games.

$9,400/Tua Tagovailoa – Averaged 12.3 DK points in the 2 games last season. Over his 7 games against the Bills, he has averaged 207 yards passing and holds a 6:7 TD/INT ratio. The floor seems safe, and he is the 3^rd most reliable option on the slate, but the ceiling is lower than you would hope for with a captain play. Would not go overweight on him, but he is still worth using. With Mostert out and the potential for Achane to join him or be reduced, Tua should find himself throwing more often and could easily beat the 15.04 DK point average he has in 5 games against a McDermott led Bills Defense.

 

Moderate Usage:

$9,600/De’Von Achane – Last year’s games of 30 and 13 DK points are the prime example of what to expect here. If he gets the 30, you are going to need him in your line to cash, if you are getting 13, that means his usage has been lessened and you are going to need Waddle and/or one of the other running backs. If he is active, his efficiency is elite via the ground, or the air and you cannot afford to not use him here, especially after 3 TDs in the 2 games last year. Scored 23 DK points in last week’s opener with a 17 touch, 1 TD, and 100 yards from scrimmage line.

$6,200/Khalil Shakir – Produced a 3/42/1 line on 3 targets in the opener for 13.2 DK points, while running on a route on 70% of drop backs, with the majority coming from the slot. Produced a 6/105/0 line for 19.5 DK points in Week 18 last season.

$5,800/Keon Coleman – Coleman should eventually emerge as the alpha receiver here after pacing the team last week with a 20%+ target share and 30%+ first read target share, while ranking 2^nd in air yards share. The 4/51/0 line on 5 targets for 9.1 DK points might not seem like much, but it is a safe floor at the salary with much higher upside. The Dolphins allowed the 15^th most DK points to opposing WR units last season at 29.5 points per game and started this season by allowing that same number of points in last week’s game.

$4,000/Bills D/ST – The Bills allowed the 5^th fewest DK points to opposing D/ST units last season at 4.9 points per game. The Bills unit scored 5 DK points last week in the opener, while allowing 28 to the Cardinals, but generating 4 sacks and recovering 1 fumble. At this price as last week showed, you can still generate points even with giving up points, considering Tua’s record in the series, I will take my chances that the defense will make it up again.

$3,000/Dolphins D/ST – The Dolphins allowed the 14^th fewest DK points to opposing D/ST units last season at 6.2 points per game. The Dolphins unit scored 6 DK points last week in the opener, while allowing 17 points to the Jaguars, but generating 3 sacks and recovering 1 fumble. Allen did not throw a pick in the opener, but he did lose a fumble and with that a dinged-up hand here, it is possible he could lose another here. In the two games against Miami last year, Allen was sacked 5 times and threw 2 INTs.

$2,400/Jeff Wilson, Jr. – The Bills allowed the 16^th most DK points to opposing RB units last season at 21.7 points per game. Produced a 5/26 line for 2.6 DK points in the opener as the RB3 against Jacksonville. Is likely to assume a larger share of the work with Mostert out and depending on Achane’s ultimate availability, could be a line up must play. Based on how he was used in the preseason and given that he came to Miami from SF with McDaniel, I would assume Wilson as a floor sees 10-12 touches from the backfield.

$2,000/Jaylen Wright – Likely to serve as the RB3 for the game here and could pay off with one big play but based on last year’s usage with Ingold as the RB3, I would prefer Wilson as the RB2 in this situation. I will have exposure to Wright, just in case he breaks one and goes well, like what Achane did as a rookie last season.

$1,200/Braxton Berrios – Scored 2.9 and 17.4 DK points in the two games against Buffalo last season. Saw just 2 targets in the opener but is the WR3 in the offense for the moment. As last year showed, could be a boom or a bust, but the salary is cheap enough to allow you to stack your stars.

 

The Rest (Lighter Usage):

$9,000/James Cook – Cook scored 8.2 and 14.7 DK points in the two games against the Dolphins last season. The Dolphins allowed the 7^th fewest DK points to opposing RB units at 19.4 points per game. They allowed a 24/117/1 line to Jaguars RBs last week for 30.3 DK points. Saw 22 touches and produced 103 yards from scrimmage last week of 13.3 DK points. The 13 points and the yards will not hurt you at this salary, by going underweight. Gathering the lion’s share of a 30 DK point effort might. Pick a side and build accordingly.

$8,600/Jaylen Waddle – If there is a guy that I could be wrong on, it might be Waddle. Slot CB/Johnson not playing here is going to help someone, the question is how much Tua will take advantage and who the prime beneficiary will be. It is likely to be Hill and then someone before Waddle, but I have been wrong before. In 5 career games against the Dolphins, he holds a 4.2/67.8/0.2 receiving line, yet he produced a 5/109/0 line on 5 targets in last week’s opening game.

$4,800/Tyler Bass – The Dolphins allowed the 4^th fewest DK points to opposing kickers last season at 6.6 points per game. Did score 14 points in one of the games versus Miami last season but scored 3 points in the other. Scored 10 DK points in last week’s game.

$4,400/Jason Sanders – The Bills allowed the 6^th fewest DK points to opposing kickers last season at 7.1 points per game. Scored 2 points in each of the 2 Bills games last season. Scored 10 DK points in last week’s game.

$2,800/Jonnu Smith – The Bills allowed the 7^th fewest DK points to opposing TE units last season at 10.5 points per game. Produced a 50/582/3 line for the Falcons last season in a TE-split with the Falcons. With him running 70% of his routes last week from the slot, he should end up as the highest scorer of the 3 Dolphins TEs.

$2,600/Dawson Knox – Scored 2.2 and 10.2 in the 2 games against the Dolphins last season. Had an 8% target share last week in the opener on his way to a 1/23 line for 3.3 DK points. Time will tell if last week’s personnel usage favoring him on the field was a trend of a mirage and considering the $5,000 difference between him and Kincaid, I will side with Knox on the chance it is a trend. The Dolphins allowed the 7^th most DK points to opposing TE units last season at 13.3 points per game.

$1,800/Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Produced a 1/19 on 2 targets in the opener. With the Dolphins allowing no more than 62 yards to a single pass catcher in the opener, MVS profiles out as more of a TD-dependent dart throw, which is if he can catch the damn ball.

$1,000/Durham Smythe – Did not catch any of his 3 targets in the opener, but the game ended up as a 3-way split for targets. Smythe scored at least 6 DK points in each of the 2 games against the Bills last season. Even as the TE2 here, there is still scoring potential here.

 

Combos I Liked:

C: Hill, Tagovailoa, Wilson // Allen, Coleman, Bills D/ST

C: Hill, Tagovailoa, Waddle, Wilson, Berrios // Allen

C: Allen, Shakir, Coleman, Gilliam // Tagovailoa, Hill

C: Allen, Shakir, Coleman // Tagovailoa, Achane, Wilson

C: Tagovailoa, Hill, Achane, Wilson, Berrios // Allen

C: Tagovailoa, Hill, Smythe // Allen, Shakir, Coleman

 

That is, it from here. Do not forget to track the NFL Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!

–Nik (@MrGuruNick)