Thursday Night Showdown Slate – Wash vs Phi

Thursday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 11: WAS @ PHI

Lines:

O/U: 48.5

Eagles, –4.0

2024 DVOA:

WAS: Defense Against the Run: #24 (2023–6th most yards allowed per game at 126.8 yards; 2024-5th most yards allowed per game at 142.1 yards).

WAS: Defense Against the Pass: #20

PHI: Defense Against the Run: #11 (2023–11th fewest yards allowed per game at 104.3 yards; 2024–5th fewest yards allowed per game at 100.7 yards).

PHI: Defense Against the Pass: #7

Thoughts:

I will call it 28-23 for the Eagles. I have concerns about what the Commanders might end up throwing out on the OL. The Eagles’ Defense has been good since Week 6, but they have not really played anybody great nor has the offense had to really come back on anybody in a back-and-forth type of game. We will see if that materializes here or not. I will not say the Commanders are not a good team because they are, but I do think they have been a bit lucky so far this season while some of their opponents have been down more than we expected. The line keeps drifting up while the overall total has not moved much. Feels like a stars and scrubs type of night with the big salaries at the top all worthy of being heavily owned.

Captain’s Picks/Heavy Usage:

$11,000/Jalen Hurts – Hurts has been under the yards, attempts, and completion props in his recent games, but he has made up for it with his legs. Hurts has 8 rushing TDs in his last 4 games and has rushed at least 13 times in his last 4 home games. The Commanders have allowed the 15th most DK points to opposing QBs so far this season at 17.0 points per game. Hurts scored better than 17 DK points in 8 of 9 games so far this season. His outlook only improves with the return of LT/Mailata from the injured reserve.

$10,600/Saquon Barkley – Barkley comes into this week’s game averaging 22.4 DraftKings points this season with an impressive stat line of 21.3 touches, 127.6 yards from scrimmage, and 1.1 touchdowns per game. His efficiency is highlighted by a 5.8 yard per carry average. Despite the Washington Commanders’ defense being tough on running backs, allowing the 11th fewest DK points to opposing RB units at 21.7 points per game, Barkley’s role in the offense is substantial. He dominates with 58% of the team’s rushing attempts, captures 44% of the red zone carries, and has 9 attempts from within the 5-yard line. Beyond rushing, he isinvolved in the passing game, running a route on 59% of the team’s drop backs, with an 11% target share, and remains active in critical game situations.

$10,400/Jayden Daniels – Daniels emerges as a prime candidate for an overweight stance at Captain and Flex, given his consistent fantasy output. Despite the Eagles’ defense being stingy, allowing only the 4th fewest DraftKings points to quarterbacks at 13.7 per game, Daniels has managed to score 19 or more DK points in 7 of 10 games this season. His performance in his first year includes a 69% completion rate with an average of better than 8 yards per attempt. Beyond his passing, Daniels contributes significantly via his legs with a 29.0% rush share, including 27% of the team’s red zone rushing attempts and five carries from inside the 5-yard line.

Moderate Usage:

$10,000/A.J. Brown – Though not as flashy this season, Brown is still central to the Eagles’ offensive scheme, boasting a high target and air yards share with a 15-yard average depth of target that showcases his ability to open up the field. The matchup against the Commanders looks advantageous; their defense is notably weak against first-read passes and perimeter threats, areas where Brown thrives, running routes there 78.1% of the time. With the Eagles undefeated when Brown plays and averaging over 30 points per game, coupled with the Commanders’ defense yielding 33.2 DraftKings points per game to receivers, Brown is poised for an impressive performance, having hit over 18.9 DK points in three of the last five games. My strategy is to get overweight on him for what he can do and hope for the best with an underweight stance on DeVonta Smith.

$9,000/Terry McLaurin – McLaurin has been exceptionally consistent against the Eagles, posting a 6.7 reception, 94.8 yard, and 0.25 touchdown average over his last four encounters with them. His fantasy production has been stable, averaging 16.5 DraftKings points this season and surpassing 15 points in each of the past eight games for the team. This consistency is bolstered by his leading role in key offensive categories, boasting a 24.0% target share, a 43% air yards share, a 28%first-read target share, and an 83% catchable target rate. His effectiveness against man coverage, where he scores 0.58 fantasy points per route run, aligns well with the Eagles’ defensive strategy, employing man coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league at 33%. Another solid effort should be in store for him.

$5,600/Zach Ertz – Has participated in better than 75% of the drop backs and has secured significant shares in targets and air yards, of better than 19%, and a team high 24% of red zone targets. Despite his solid performance, having scored at least 7 DK points in 7 out of 10 games so far this season and ranking 8th league-wide in receptions and targets among tight ends, the matchup against the Eagles looks challenging. The Eagles’ defense has been stingy, allowing only 7.8 DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends, which ranks third fewest in the league.

$5,200/Jake Elliott – Averaging 7+ points against the Commanders in 13 games against them with an average of 2.9 XPs made and 1.3 of 1.5 FGs made against them per game. The Commanders are allowing the 3rd fewest DK points to opposing kickers so far this season at 6.1 points per game. Decent salary for a home team favorite kicking in a game that is projected to be high scoring. Likely equal weight but could push a little over before gametime.

$4,800/Zane Gonzalez – Scored 11 points last week kicking for the team in Seibert’s absence and will get another chance to do it again for the team this week. With uncertainty at WR after McLaurin and potentially overpriced options at RB, Gonzalez isa safe option with a strong floor. The more the team can keep up with the Eagles, the more valuable he may become in this game. The Eagles have allowed the 13th fewest DK points to opposing kickers so far this season at 8.1 points per game.

$3,000/Olamide Zaccheaus – With Noah Brown being overpriced, I will take flyers on each of the 3 likely WR3 candidates from the team in equal amounts. Has seen 3 or more targets in 7 games so far this season and is averaging 4.4 DK points per game.

$1,600/Dyami Brown – With Noah Brown being overpriced, I will take flyers on each of the 3 likely WR3 candidates from the team in equal amounts. If I had to choose one from the above and below, I prefer Brown because he has seen the deep targets and throws near the end zone that the other two have not yet. Averaging just 1.8 targets per game but does have 1 double-digit DK point game so far on the season.

$1,200/Luke McCaffrey – With Noah Brown being overpriced, I will take flyers on each of the 3 likely WR3 candidates from the team in equal amounts. Averaging 2.6 DK points per game so far this season and has seen at least 2 targets in 5 games this season. Working from the slot and the cheapest of the three, the ceiling might be the lowest, but his floor may be the safest.

The Rest (Lighter Usage):

$6,600/Dallas Goedert – Seems to have recovered nicely form his injury based on his 2/25/1 line for 10.5 DK points in last week’s game against Dallas. With a sub 12% air yards and target share on the team, it seems likely we will end up underweight here and dare him to beat us.

$6,200/Noah Brown – Brown has seen 6 or more targets in 4 of team’s last 5 games and played a season high, near 90% snap count in last week’s game. Averaging 8.3 points per game so far this season while ranking 2nd in air yards share and 3rd in target share on the team. Will be underweight as the salary makes him hard to get to when considering the rest of the players for either team.

$4,400/Eagles D/ST – Best scoring and total defense in the league since the start of Week 6. CB/Dejean is the #1 cover corner in the league so far this season. If there is a concern here, it is the fact they have not really been tested in recent weeks, especially against an offense that can keep up with the Eagles. The Commanders are allowing the 2nd fewest DK points to opposing D/ST units so far this season at 1.8 points per game. The Eagles D/ST has scored 6 or more points in 6 of the team’s last 7 games.

$3,600/Commanders D/ST – The unit is averaging 5.6 DK points per game this season and they have exceeded that in 4 of 10 games so far this season. The unit has multiple sacks in each of the team’s last 8 games, but the streak could snap here against the Eagles vaunted OL. Still, the Eagles are allowing the 14thfewest DK points to opposing D/ST units so far this season at 5.9 points per game, so there should still be ways for the Commanders to score here.

$3,200/Kenneth Gainwell – Has seen at least 6 touches out of the backfield in each of the team’s last 4 games. Barkley and Hurts cannot rush everything in, can they? Averaging better than 4 yards per carry on the season and will still snaps as a pass-catcher out of the backfield when the team needs him.

$1,000/Grant Calcaterra – The Commanders are allowing the 11th fewest DK points to opposing TE units so far this season at 10.5 points per game. Averaged 3/40/0 from 4 targets over the 4-week stretch while Goedert was out and has reverted to afterthought status. Maybe Goedert needs a break or his hamstring flares up again? It would not take much to do some damage here and perhaps he gets the snaps if the track meet materializes.

Combos I Liked:

C: Hurts, Barkley, A.J. Brown, Calcaterra // Daniels, McCaffrey

C: Hurts, Barkley, Goedert, Calcaterra // Daniels, Z. Gonzalez

C: Barkley, Hurts, A.J. Brown, Calcaterra // Daniels, D. Brown

C: Barkley, Hurts // Daniels, N. Brown, Z. Gonzalez, D. Brown

C: Daniels, D. Brown, McCaffrey // Hurts, Barkley, A.J. Brown

C: Daniels, Z. Gonzalez, McCaffrey // Hurts, Barkley, Goedert

That is, it is from here. Do not forget to track the NFL Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!

–Nik(@MrGuruNick)