Thursday Night Showdown – Steelers vs Browns

Thursday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 12: PIT @ CLE
Lines:
O/U: 37.0
Steelers, -3.5

2024 DVOA:

PIT: Defense Against the Run: #10 (2023-12th most yards allowed per game at 118.6 yards; 2024-4th fewest yards allowed per game at 90.8 yards).
PIT: Defense Against the Pass: #8

CLE: Defense Against the Run: #21 (2023-10th fewest yards allowed per game at 103.8 yards; 2024-9th most yards allowed per game at 131.7 yards).
CLE: Defense Against the Pass: #25

Thoughts:
The total here is down, 3.5 to 4 points from where it began (depending on your book), so that speaks volumes as to how spooked people are about the weather. As of midday Thursday, the game time temperature will be mid-30’s with a steady wind of better than 10+ mph, with gusts up to 30, and a steady chance of rain with sleet and snow mixed in. Since the start of last season, the Steelers are 8-5 to the under on the road, with games averaging less than 38 points. The Browns are 9-4-1 to the under at home since the start of last season with scores averaging 38.5 points per game. Over the last 10 games in the series, the game is 7-3 to the under. The short week for the Steelers against a tough Ravens team is impactful, but the current state of the Browns on both sides of the ball eases my concerns just a bit. I am calling the game for the Steelers with a 19-14 score.

Captain’s Picks/Heavy Usage:
$11,000/George Pickens – Since Wilson took the helm at quarterback, George Pickens has become an integral component of the Steelers’ offensive strategy, averaging 18.48 DraftKings points per game and a receiving stat line of 5.5 receptions, 91.25 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns in their last four games together. The Browns’ defense, which has shown significant weaknesses in the recent weeks, presents a prime opportunity for Pickens, especially considering they have allowed the 7th most DK points to opposing wide receivers with an average of 36.2 points per game. Cleveland’s secondary has trouble with man-to-man coverage and deep passes, which plays right into Pickens’ strengths; he has been targeted frequently in the end zone with a target share exceeding 29% and an air yard share over 47%. While weather might hinder his long routes, Pickens remains a compelling choice for fantasy football enthusiasts, especially in tournaments where his potential for a big game could be highly beneficial, provided the conditions and game scenario are conducive to passing.
$10,000/Russell Wilson – Wilson is positioned well against the Browns, who of late have had a struggling secondary, in allowing a 111.3 passer rating over the last 4 games, the 3rd highest mark in the NFL. The Browns have been vulnerable to long passes, giving up the 4th most yards per pass attempt and the 4th most 20+ yard completions. Despite this, they have allowed the 16th most DK points to opposing QBs at 16.9 points per game, suggesting a middle-of-the-road challenge. Wilson, averaging 16.5 DraftKings points and 235 passing yards per game in his four starts for Pittsburgh, could capitalize on these defensive weaknesses, making him a solid start at Flex and Captain.
$9,600/Jameis Winston – Winston steps into a challenging matchup against the Steelers, who have been stingy this season, allowing the fewest DraftKings points to quarterbacks at 12.8 points per game. Pittsburgh’s defense boasts a third-lowest completion rate and second-lowest QB rating, making them a formidable opponent. Winston’s protection is compromised with LT/Jones out, which could exacerbate the pressure from Pittsburgh’s elite pass rush. Despite these challenges, Winston’s recent form, averaging 23.4 DraftKings points over his last three games, suggests he could still access the Browns’ passing game upside, especially with a pass-heavy strategy under OC/Dorsey, even though weather might force a more run-oriented game plan.
$9,200/Najee Harris – Given the Browns’ defense has allowed explosive runs at a high rate and yields significant yards before contact; Harris should be able to perform well. As the Steelers’ primary running back with 53% of the rush attempts and dominating 75% of red zone carries, including both inside the 5-yard line, Harris should be set for a 15-point floor here. His involvement in the passing game, although trailing slightly behind Jaylen Warren, adds to the potential appeal. Harris’s consistent performance this season, averaging 13.7 DraftKings points per game with nearly 20 touches and approaching 90 yards from scrimmage, positions him as a key player in what could be a run-heavy game plan against Cleveland, especially with the weather potentially favoring ground attacks.
Moderate Usage:
$8,000/Jerry Jeudy – Jeudy has stepped up significantly in the Browns’ offense post-Cooper trade, leading the team in targets, yards, and first-down conversions with Winston at QB. Despite the Steelers’ defense being tough on wide receiver units, allowing the 8th fewest DraftKings points at 28.7 per game, Jeudy’s recent performances suggest he will be heavily involved. Over the last four games, he has averaged 8.75 targets and 14.8 DraftKings points, displaying his role as perhaps the WR1 in a consistent three-WR set with Tillman and Moore. With a route participation of 90%, Jeudy slightly edges Tillman and Moore both, positioning him as a key player, even if the Steelers’ physical cornerbacks present a challenge.
$7,600/David Njoku – Njoku has been a key component of the passing game recently, having run a route on 77% of drop backs, with a 17%+ target share and 8%+ air yards share over the last 3 weeks. His usage, characterized by his sub-5-yard average target depth, positions him well as a safety blanket for Winston, if the Browns cannot push the ball downfield in the inclement weather. Njoku’s recent performance has been strong, averaging 8.8 targets and 15.16 DraftKings points over the Browns’ last five games. Facing the Steelers, who have allowed the 16th most DraftKings points to tight ends at 11.5 points per game, his recent averages could be the safe floor here with a higher ceiling yet to be determined.
$7,000/Cedric Tillman – Tillman has been a consistent target for the Browns, receiving at least eight targets in each of his last four games, which underscores his importance in the passing game. Despite a modest fantasy output of 7.7 DK points last week with a 3 catch for 47 yards performance, he remained the lead receiver for Cleveland in terms of snaps played and routes run. This consistency in involvement suggests that even against a tough Steelers’ defense, Tillman is likely to see significant action and source of points.
$6,200/Jaylen Warren – Over the last four games, the Browns’ defense has ranked 27th in EPA against the run, with opponents gaining an average of 5.1 yards per carry. Players known for their speed and agility, such as Warren, have been particularly effective against them. Warren managed at least 88 scrimmage yards against the Browns in last year’s 2 meetings. I expect that Warren could additionally be targeted in the passing game here, given that the Browns have been allowing an average receiving line of 3 catches for 24 yards to running backs, and in those situations, he is usually on the field versus Harris. It is worth noting that even with the recent struggles, the Browns have been stingy to opposing RB units, allowing the 7th fewest DK points to opposing RB units at an average of 19.4 points per game.
$5,400/Steelers D/ST – The Steelers’ defense, already potent with their sixth ranking in EPA per play, sixth in pass defense EPA per drop back, and eighth in rush defense EPA, has been consistent in fantasy football as well, averaging 9.7 DK points per game. This performance aligns well with the Browns allowing the 3rd most DK points per game at 9.9. The Steelers have scored more than 9 DK points in 7 of 10 games played this season, showcasing their ability to consistently provide fantasy value through plays like sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries, and low points allowed. With their proficiency in forcing turnovers, as evidenced by their league-leading 19 takeaways, and their top-tier red-zone defense allowing touchdowns on only 33.3% of opponent’s drives, you could make a compelling argument for playing at the captain slot as well.
$5,000/Chris Boswell – I really want to like Boswell more here, but in 8 career games in Cleveland he is averaging 1.75 XPs per game without a miss and is 1.13/1.62 FGs, with 4 misses in 13 attempts. His floor should be solid, especially considering the season he has been having, but I am skeptical of another double-digit game here, especially after a 24-point outing last week. I could be overthinking this one as he does 8 games so far this season with at least 8 DK points and yet the Browns are allowing the 9th fewest DK points to opposing kickers at 7.7 points per game.
$3,600/Pat Freiermuth – With the Browns allowing the 8th most DK points to opposing TE units so far this season at 14.2 points per game, Freiermuth is back on the radar, at least for one game. He has been losing snaps to Washington in recent weeks but is still averaging a 9% target share and 7.8 DK points on the season. Managed to catch a TD in the Week 10 game against the Commanders and he is $2,600 cheaper this week to boot.
$2,000/Calvin Austin III – Austin is priced right to be useful here as a connecting piece and who knows he might be able to do a few things on his own. Over the last 4 weeks, Austin has run a route on better than 60% of drop backs from Wilson, with nearly all coming from the slot. He has seen a 14% target share and a 17%+ air yards share over this stretch, highlighting his growing role within the passing game. However, his production has been inconsistent, with only seven receptions on 16 targets from Wilson, and he experienced a season-low 33% snap rate in the most recent game. He has scored 6 or fewer DK points in 8 of the team’s 10 games this season. He may end up more bust than boom, when considering the weather, but I still think Wilson will try to find him deep at least once or twice and perhaps we will catch lightning in a bottle in using him.
The Rest (Lighter Usage):
$9,000/Nick Chubb – I’m tempted to flat out fade Chubb from the game entirely this evening, because with the receivers priced underneath him, I’m not convinced that Chubb will get more than 15 carries in this game, and I remain skeptical that he will do enough to justify against the Steelers Run defense. Could he land a TD here? Absolutely. That is enough of a reason to play him, but without that here, you are chasing your tail with him and could do better without him.
$6,400/Elijah Moore – Playing on the weather theme a bit, you could perhaps argue that the average depth of targets for all receivers will be lower. The Steelers have been vulnerable to WRs in the slot over the season. Moore has run a route on 76% of drop backs for a 22% target share and 28%+ air yards share. Moore is averaging 13.6 DK points per game over his last 3 games, from a 5.6/59.6/0.33 line on 9.6 targets with Winston at QB.
$4,800/Dustin Hopkins – The Steelers have allowed the 4th fewest DK points to opposing kickers so far this season at 6.9 points per game. After missing two FGs last week, bringing his total to 6 missed on the season, and when considering the weather here as well as his 3 sub-4-point performances in the last 5 games, I am leery of putting too much faith in Hopkins here.
$4,400/Jerome Ford – If I had to choose a running back for this game, my preference would lean towards Jerome Ford over Nick Chubb, primarily due to the significant price difference and how Ford has been used in the two weeks since he returned from injury, even with productivity dips. In the Week 11 loss to New Orleans, Ford notably out-snapped Chubb 41 to 22, a decision influenced by the game’s negative script that pushed for more passing plays. Over the past two weeks, Ford has seen an increase in his involvement in the passing game, participating in 54% of the drop backs and carrying the ball on 18% of the running back attempts. Additionally, he has been on the field for 70% long-down-and-distance situations and 39% of two-minute drills. Earlier in the season, before Chubb’s return, Ford had proven his worth by achieving three games with double-digit DK points. Considering the weather forecast for the upcoming game, conventional wisdom suggests you should use at least one running back, right? I may wait until the last minute to decide.
$2,400/Darnell Washington – His 3.7 DK points per game average from a 14/168/1 line across the season thus far looks pedestrian. He has looked much better with Wilson at QB as he has averaged 2/28.25/0 from 3 targets and 4.82 DK points per game. Considering the weather outlook and the fact he is running a route on 30% of drop backs and been targeted better than 20% of the time on those routes run, he could surprise here.

Combos I Liked:
C: Pickens, Wilson, Harris, Boswell, Austin III // Tillman
C: Pickens, Wilson, Steelers D/ST, Boswell, Austin III // Winston
C: Wilson, Pickens, Harris, Boswell, Austin III // Njoku
C: Wilson, Steelers D/ST, Boswell // Winston, Jeudy, Tillman
C: Winston, Njoku // Wilson, Harris, Boswell, Freiermuth
C: Winston, Njoku // Wilson, Pickens, Boswell, Austin III
C: Harris, Wilson, Warren, Steelers D/ST, Boswell // Winston
C: Harris, Wilson, Boswell, Freiermuth // Winston, Jeudy

That is, it is from here. Do not forget to track the NFL Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!
–Nik(@MrGuruNick)