Thursday Night Showdown

Lines:

Steelers @ Vikings (-3)

O/U = 44

DVOA

Vikings against the run #29
Vikings against the pass #13
Steelers against the run #24
Steelers against the pass #25

 

Favorites:

Justin Jefferson, $11,000

• 2^nd in the NFL in receiving yards, 8^th in the NFL in targets, 5^th in redzone targets, 4^th in TDs by a WR, Jefferson is simply a beast.
• Two of his last three games he has exploded for 40.2 and 38.6 DK points.
• Joe Haden and Cameron Sutton will attempt ot cover him on the perimeter, and he might see more slot work in this game with Thielen out, which would produce another lopsided match-up with something called Arthur Maulet.
• We saw what kind of massive volume he will get when Thielen left the game last week, expect to see more of that.

Diontae Johnson, $10,200

• A slow start from Johnson last week, but in the end he got his (8/105/2 on 11 targets). That marks his fourth straight game with double digit targets.
• A tremendous match-up whether it is Patrick Peterson or Bashaud Breeland covering him on the perimeter.
• Negative game script could have the Steelers passing at the end of the game and him mounting big points, just like last week at the end of the game vs Baltimore.

Najee Harris, $10,000

• Massive volume, but not real efficient as the Steeler o-line has been less than stellar. Less than 3.5 yards per carry in each of his last three games.  Luckily he h as had 41 carries and 16 targets to provide volume.
• Harris is not game script dependent and actually I like him a bit better with a negative game script as he has a better chance of accumulating big DK points through the air.
• Vikings have been torched most of the year by the run and although they have their two defensive tackles back, I still think 15-20 carries from Najee and catches should get him to 18-20 DK points.

 

Value:

Alex Mattison, $9,800

• I said the unthinkable last week in my column that I didn’t think the Vikings lost anything with Dalvin Cook out. Actually in my opinion, they never should have resigned him.  Anyway, Mattison proceeded to rush 22 times for 90 yards and score a TD, plus he caught 3 balls for 34 yards on his way to a 21.4 DK point day.
• The Steelers are certainly not the old Steel Curtain against the run this year as they rank 24^th DVOA and have allowed the 11^th most DK points per game to RBs.
• Vikings only other RB option is Kene Nwangwu (who I actually think is a viable punt play), so Mattison will get the vast majority of the action.
• Home favorite, positive game script is a recipe for a ton of carries.

Pat Friermuth, $6,600

• A huge redzone target for Big Ben, has 5 TDs in his last 7 games.
• Over 6 targets over his last seven games as well.

 

Sleepers:

Chase Claypool, $7,400

• All the attention is clearly on Dionta Johnson, so ownership levels on Claypool are going to be much lower.
• He likely will see the majority of coverage from the bafoon Bashaud Breeland who has been beaten deep multiple times this year.
• Claypool has not seen massive volume like Johnson this year, but he is a much better big play threat. There is a chance he hits at least one big one here and I actually will be overweight the field with Claypool as Captain.
• If you roster Claypool as Captain, you are hoping he hits one or two long ones and if he does, then you will want Big Ben as well, so a stack with those two would make sense.

Tyler Conklin, $6,200

• Another beneficiary of the Adam Thielen injury, Conklin saw a season high in targets last week (9) of which he caught 7/56.
• A very narrow target tree for Cousins this week and Conklin has been a steady contributor all year while bust Herndon does nothing.

 

Deep Sleepers:

Dede Westbrook, $2,200

• Former Jaguar great, I cant even type that with a straight face. With Thielen out however Westbrook will play quite a bit in the slot.  There he will see coverage from Arthur Maulet, who according to everything I have read, sucks real bad.
• Overall the Steelers are really beatable through the air and if he can catch just 3-4 balls he will likely produce value for this cheap price.

Kene Nwangwu, $1,600

• Worked as the #2 RB to Mattison last week, which didn’t mean much because Mattison played the vast majority of the time.
• If Mattison cannot handle such a massive workload or happens to get dinged up, that would mean Nwangwu would step right in and might be able to score through the air (3 targets last week).

 

Possible lineups:

C- Claypool, Roethlisberger, Mattison, Harris, Conklin, Westbrook

C- Claypool, Roethlisberger, Jefferson, Mattison, Washington, Joseph

C- D Johnson, Jefferson, Nwangwu, Cousins, Roethlisberger, Westbrook